In Lou We Trust

The news is out, still as a headline on ESPN this evening. Gulitti states in the very first sentence in this post that the idea of Brodeur being injured is still requiring some getting used to. At NHL.com, which still has their Brodeur Watch up, we learn that the Brodeur family is devastated by this. And it should be big, difficult, unsettling news. The last time Martin Brodeur hasn't played 67 or more games in a season was 1995-1996; and the two seasons prior to that featured the rise of Brodeur in his rookie season back in 1993-1994 and only a half of a regular season was played in 1994-1995. He's never been injured as a New Jersey Devil for longer than 10 games, if I recall correctly.

For Devils fans like me, who basically started following the team when Marty was a rookie, these are uncharted waters. An extended period of time where the Devils will play hockey without Martin Brodeur as goaltender is all new to fans like me. It's basically a taste of the inevitable occurring about 3-5 years from now. The simple fact that Martin Brodeur won't be the main goaltender for the New Jersey Devils. If you're not familiar with his importance to the team, then I don't think you really know anything about the Devils since 1994. He is an absolute cornerstone to the franchise in their past, present, and continued successes. And now he's going to be gone until March, assuming everything goes well. That's well over half of the season.

That's well over half of the season where Kevin Weekes will have to reprise his role as a starting goaltender. The last time he was the definitive #1 on a team, it was on Carolina in 2003-2004. Weekes is a talented keeper, but he's clearly a drop off from Martin Brodeur. He's not going to play every night, so expect and learn to hope Scott Clemmensen can play like a NHL goalie on the nights where he's playing. He's a butterfly goaltender, meaning that Weekes' needs to pay special attention as to when he drops into that position. He's not like Marty where Brodeur will tell defenders to let him see the open shot, the defense will have to be more willing to sacrifice their bodies and sticks for blocks. He's not as quick to smother up pucks or as talented to limit rebounds, so he needs to work on both while the defense needs to play with more awareness around the slot in front of Weekes. I'm not trying to pick on Weekes, but he's definitely a drop off from Brodeur in terms of quality in net. We, as a fanbase, need to accept this and support Weekes even when he's not at his best (like, say, last night). He has the unenviable position of having to pick up after one of the greatest goaltenders in the history of the NHL, a player that the Devils have built entire teams and seasons around, and keep some level of consistency in net. He doesn't need any additional pressure.

Let's focus on the other guys on the Devils. The defense has done a great job in terms of playing much better than they look individually on paper. Credit for that goes to the players and the coaching staff for figuring out what they are good at. Now more than ever, they will need to limit opposing offenses to fewer than 30 shots per game. They cannot afford to be as passive, they will have to be more willing to get into the other team's faces outside of the boards, keep them away from Weekes' field of vision, and pick up the flanking players. I do think they will play more aggressively to help Weekes' out in these terms, as well as putting them into more positions to block shots and force bad passes. Of course, this comes with a higher risk of being burned by more skilled players or being caught on crafty plays. In summary, they need to become stingy-er as well as more stable in their own end. Nights where they get rolled in a period or they spend much of their defensive game chasing people need to end for the Devils to remain successful.

And to be successful in hockey, you need to have goals scored. The Devils can't just score 1 or 2 goals, try to get more, but be able to ward off the other team with strong defense and excellent performances from Brodeur in case that they don't. Again, it is foolish to expect Weekes to play like Brodeur so it would be foolish if they played like Brodeur was in net. That extra level of comfort, confidence, whatever you call it isn't a constant anymore. The Devils skaters need to score more goals. It can come from guys who have been doing it (Zach Parise), guys who can do it but need to do it more (Patrik Elias, Brian Gionta), guys who have the potential of doing it (Travis Zajac, Dainius Zubrus), and guys whose role may not be scoring but can definitely provide help should they light the lamp more often (John Madden, Jamie Langenbrunner, David Clarkson, etc.) They need to take advantage of power plays - nights where they go 0 for 7 are inexcusable regardless of who is in net. They need demonstrate better discipline to stop committing as many penalties as they do to prevent the other team from scoring goals. And if the other team figures out a constant move when attacking - dumping it in the boards, looking for a man in the slot, etc. - the Devils (the coach or the players) need to realize this and adjust their tactics to keep the opposition honest.

As much as this has been despairing and lecturing and ranting and writing poor sentences, I honestly do believe the season is not lost. Nothing has been decided. Am I as confident in this team without Marty as I was when Marty was here? No. I don't think many fans are. But I sincerely think they have the talent to still be one of the best teams in the East. The Devils have skilled forwards up top such as Parise, Elias, Zajac, and Gionta. They have checking forwards who are a pain to play against from ace defenders John Madden and Jay Pandolfo to grinders like David Clarkson. They have forwards who do a bit of both in Jamie Langenbrunner and Dainius Zubrus. They even have some rookies with potential in Petr Vrana and Nicklas Bergfors. And when Brian Rolston and Bobby Holik come back, the group will be that much better. On defense, you may not think much of a unit featuring Paul Martin (get better soon, please), Colin White, Johnny Oduya, Anssi Salmela, Mike Mottau, and Sheldon Brookbank. But these guys got the job done last season with little fanfare and if they can at least do that, it should be enough. And, hey, Kevin Weekes is a pretty good goaltender. Don't forget that Brent Sutter is in control of this team and Lou Lamoriello is the best general manager in sports.

I'm not going to lie; the season just got a lot more difficult. But there is reason to be hopeful. Hopeful that this team can still win tough hockey games. Hopeful that this team can still keep up in a very tight Eastern Conference. Hopeful that when Marty does return, he doesn't have to put on a Superman cape and try to single-handedly carry the team to the playoffs. They have the players, they have done more with less in the past (thanks to Marty, admittedly); but the players, the coaches, the trainers, and the organization has to step it up and do more with what they have. I think they can still at least make the playoffs and cause a lot of other teams problems. I do not know whether the Devils think that, but it's what I think. But it will be far from easy.

Now, more than ever, we must support Jersey's team - we must support the Devils. I sincerely hope that Marty's surgery is successful and he makes a proper and complete recovery. But the sun will still come up, the night will still come upon us, and there are hockey games to play - and they can be won. Let's go, Devils.

First, the self-promotion! Slap Shot at the NY Times is doing their Hockey Night in Blogdom feature and I've answered a few questions from them. Check that out.

Now, for the actual content of this post: hits and shots. Specifically, how have the Devils been hitting and shooting now that Devils hockey is done for October. With only 9 games into the season, the low amount of games skews the results drastically in some regard. But the whole point of keeping track of the Devils' shots, their failed attempts at shooting, and how many times the scorer actually counts a bodycheck is to get an idea of how they are going. It's good to see any trends forming and perhaps find areas where the Devils can improve (or don't need to).

As always, my numbers come from the super stats reports found at NHL.com. I understand the NHL numbers can be biased by scorers being too generous or too picky. A great example is the second half of the home-and-home with Philadelphia last weekend. Amazingly, there were only 22 recorded hits combined in the second Philadelphia game; and that was a very physical and intense game. I really do think there were more than 22 hits in that game. Yet, they are the official numbers and so I will use them. Feel free to take all this with grains of salt.

First, let's look at hits. Over all 9 games, the Devils are barely outhitting opponents 166 to 163. Compared to the other team Their most physical game this month has been against the NY Rangers where the Devils outhit them 43 to 37, a total of 80 hits. The least physical game has been against Atlanta, wherein they were outhit 6 to 8, a total of 14. The Devils average approximately 17.25 hits at the Rock and 19.4 on the road; opponents are averaging 17 and 19, respectively. The differences in averages when the Devils win is +1 (17 to 16) and -0.5 when the Devils lose (20.25 to 20.50). Basically, it's pretty even. And games like the Rangers game as well as the Thrashers game does skew things. Here's an interesting fact: the Devils have been outhit in their last 4 games - all by 2 hits per game.

Based on this, it seems that the Devils do hit more on the road, but that is heavily skewed by the 43 they dropped on the Blueshirts (2nd highest total on the road is more than half that - 20 against Pittsburgh). While I have no issue with the Devils taking the body a bit more, it's too soon to really conclude that they do need to be more physical or not.

The shooting is a bit more complex. In total, the Devils have an overall efficiency of 56.54% and opponents have an efficiency of 56.65%. Devils have a higher total number of attempts on net (520 to 436); shots on net (294 to 247); and, unfortunately, shots blocked (137 to 93). But the Devils have missed fewer shots: 89 to 96, that's a bit new. However, I think their blistering 49-shot and 88 shot-attempt performance against Pittsburgh, I think, tends to skew the averages. Yet, the Devils remain with a total average of 32.667 shots per game and 57.778 attempts per game this month. Opponents this month have put on an average of 27.444 shots per game and 48.444 attempts per game. What surprised me is that the Devils actually miss close to one less shot per game on average than their opponents: 9.889 misses per game compared to opponents' 10.667 misses per game. Blocks are still in the opponents' favor by a huge margin: they have blocked 15.222 Devils' shots per game whereas the Devils only block 10.333 opponent shots per game this month. This is a combination of poor decision making by the Devils - seriously, shooters, stop trying to force shot through defender's legs, skates, sticks, and bodies - as well a conscious effort by opponents to make their shots count.

The most efficient game the Devils have had this month was their second game against Philadelphia, where the Devils put 31 of their 48 attempts on net, good for 64.58%. In contrast, their worst performance in this regard has been against the Rangers, where only 27 out of 58 attempts (46.55%) got to Henrik Lundqvist. The best opposition performance was by Philadelphia in their first game against New Jersey, they put up a rate of 68.29% - 28 out of 41 attempts. The worst opposition performance was Pittsburgh, who got a mere 15 shots on net out of 38 attempts (39.47%).

Differences between at home and on the road have been huge, as well as the differences in wins and losses. Again, small population sizes skew this heavily; but currently the Devils have been more accurate at shooting on the road than at home. They have had an average of 11.75 more attempts on net; 7.05 more shots; an improvement of .36% in efficiency; and 1.55 fewer missed shots. Only the average blocked Devils' shots are better at home by 3.30. For wins and losses, as one may expect, the winning team is more accurate and more proficient at shooting on net - be it the Devils or the opponents. The Devils difference in efficiency isn't large, only 1.22% greater in wins; but they have many more attempts on net (10.85 more average attempts) and shots on net (7.05 more shots on net). The efficiency is more dramatic among opponents: as their rate is a mere 52.53% when they lose; but it balloons to 61.06% when they win. That goes along with more attempts - 10.45 more attempts on average when they win and an average 10.45 more shots on net. Again, numbers are likely influenced heavily by the Pittsburgh and Toronto games, but the trend appears clear. Shoot more pucks and make more them go on net, and you may be more likely to win.

Of course, given that we're discussing the New Jersey Devils, we all know it's more than just shooting and hitting that causes teams to win hockey games. Still, it's interesting information to consider from the past month.

Let's sum this up real quick for the Devils; the previews all tend to agree on the following:

Where do they disagree? Easy - when it comes to figuring out how good the Devils are. Despite claims that they can't be counted out, some previews show them in the bottom end of the playoff seeding in the East. Maybe it's telling of how competitive the division, conference, and the league now are; but who knows. Others go in an opposite direction and think they can finish first in the whole conference, much less the division. From my point of view (and my count), the amount of optimistic and pessimistic is about even (with 2MA stuck in the middle!). OK, maybe there are other previews I missed - but from a sample of 15 from both print and the Internet of various areas (Devils fans, big hockey bloggers, etc.), this is what I found. Yes, there are more pessimistic predictions out there for the Devils and based on legitimate concerns. But, it isn't fair or true at all to say that mostly everyone in the hockey world doesn't respect the Devils or their chances. Only one preview comes right out and says they won't make the playoffs (and two are iffy), after all. We're going to see the postseason come to Newark again, the Devils should be that good. How well New Jersey will do - whether they will have home ice again or get in on the final days of April - is the sticking point.

I put all of my thoughts and the links (where possible) to each preview into the following table, so you can judge for yourself.

OK, with the season starting on Friday against the Islanders, it's about time I wrap up my little experiment of reviewing Devils previews. I'll try to summarize them all in a nice little table tomorrow. If you have any idea of more previews that I haven't covered - now is the time to bring them up. Otherwise, this set will be the last.

First off is a quick summary of The Hockey News' preview in their yearbook. I finally found a copy of it on a news stand in NY Penn Station and read through the Devils' section. I didn't purchase it because, well, I was only interested in what was written on two pages. So if I get something wrong, let me know and I'll correct it. I believe it was written by Rich Chere and I got the impression that everything didn't seem so bad in the preview. The offense was poor last year, but it should be better with the addition of Rolston and the hopes that the underachieving forwards will, well, achieve more. The weakness was a defense that wasn't spectacular, which is a bit odd considering they've done well in limiting shots against the Devils (27.5 shots against per game, 8th best in the league) and how rookies would take time acclimate themselves to the NHL (no big worry as the roster is loaded with veterans). You get the impression that the Devils could be solid enough. Then you read the final ranking and predicition: B- and 7th in the East. I guess it means the Devils will be good but not quite good enough in a competitive conference? I'm not sure? I get the feeling this was written way in advance of preseason and I'm sure a more recent preview would yield different results. I guess it's not all that positive ultimately.

On the other spectrum of positive is James Mirtle, who thinks the Devils could finish first in the conference. I don't know if I'd go that far, but he makes a concise and decent case. The Eastern Conference is volitile as a whole and it could be anybody's game (except you, Islanders) if events turn out favorably in various ways. The Devils did lead the conference at one point last season, they didn't change much except for adding a proven scorer (Rolston) which can only benefit the team, and the team did do really well once they got The Rock, Jamie Langenbrunner, and Colin White all in tow. Definitely positive, but again, I have my doubts as to the team finishing first overall. If the offense really does become more potent and productive, then sure, why not? Otherwise, I can see the team winning a lot but not enough to take that top spot if only because of the other teams who are better overall than New Jersey.

At ESPN, we see that Pierre LeBrun has written a team preview. You know, the same Lebrun who didn't think the Devils will make the playoffs. In his summation of the team, he writes: "Every season, the pundits predict the Devils will finally fold, only to be proven wrong." Wow. The irony. It's so real. Anyway, LeBrun really doesn't get much wrong here and doesn't repeat his playoff-less prediction. In fact, I don't see a prediction. The Devils need better results from Patrik Elias, Brian Gionta, and Langenbrunner, which is true. Tere's no reason to be surprised that the Devils as a top defensive team without a stud defender given how the unit did last season along with their excellent checking forwards, which is bolstered by Bobby Holik; which is true. What is nice are the features of their predicted Top Five - which is nearly right, but Bryce Salvador will likely start with Paul Martin and not White, as well as a blurb from Jay Feaster. However, what is annoying is that in three areas on the preview - LeBrun's section, Feaster's blurb, and a side text as their "key question" - they all discuss whether Martin Brodeur can play 70 or more games this season at such a high level. I'm sick of reading this in nearly every preview and I will have more to say on it on Thursday. But what really gets me is that they all come to the same conclusion. - that Marty's the man and sure, he can do it. Did they really need to highlight it in three areas? Especially with other potential questions they could ask, such as how might Brent Sutter approach this season now that he has four full lines of players? It's not bad and it's got some nice angles, I just wish there was more and an actual conclusion of the preview. Does LeBrun think New Jersey will make the playoffs or does his earlier opinion stand?

Lastly, we have the NHL FanHouse. First, let's look at those predictions - in which the whole panel at the FanHouse gives their thought as to who will win the division, the conference, and even the individual player trophies. Overall, it's not bad for the Devils even if the voting is off. Two of the six think the Devils could win the division, whereas others aren't as high - having them sit third in the division. Ahead of the Rangers, mind you. For the conference, the consensus sticks them in fourth, just outside of the division spots. I guess some of those other four people like New Jersey in second in the division if not at first. Lastly, two of them likes Brodeur winning his fifth Vezina trophy - which is very possible given that it is Martin Brodeur.

Now onto the team preview, which was written by Kevin Schultz. The big theme of his preview is that the Devils really haven't changed all that much and that could be an issue considering that they won't surprise anyone. And really, did they need to change all that much outside of signing Holik and Rolston? It's a great point, and absolutely true, that the Devils need to do better within inter-division games and he has the numbers to back it up. And at least he apologizes before mentioning that Marty is getting old yet he remains dominant. Still, he doesn't mince words in his prediction, stating that this team could win the division or even the conference - especially if a big team (Montreal? Philadelphia? Pittsburgh?) falters. I'd say that's positive, yet a bit more realistic than outright saying they could finish first in the conference.

Again, I plan on summarizing all of these tomorrow into a table or table-like format just to see what the general sentiment regarding this team prior to the start of the season. I must say, it seems that a lot of the previews agree with each other but not on what the final outcome could be.

With a season rapidly approaching, we got more season previews and we're going to see how some of them see the Devils for 2008-2009. Last time, I took a look at three preview magazines - all of which did not think very highly of the Devils. Today, let's look at some more from Devils fans, Devils fans who have to be more impartial, and from people who are not Devils fans but write about hockey all the same.

First, from anonymous in the comments from the last post, we have this Devils preview that's in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer of all places. Yes. It's called the Intelligencer. Anyway, it appears to be a syndicated article from "Sports Network" by Dan Di Sciullo. Di Sciullo's preview is pretty detailed and breaks down the team in each position while having an overall prediction in the end - a good format for a preview as any. He shows an understanding of the Devils organization by stating up front "Detractors will say that those moves show that the Devils are still living in the past, but it's never wise to doubt Lamoriello, after all, he is the man responsible for turning the swamps of Jersey into a frequent home for Lord Stanley." Well said.

Di Sciullo's analysis doesn't tell us much new in the big picture. But he correctly points out that signings of Brian Rolston and Bobby Holik will give the Devils good depth at center. However, he gets some things wrong in the process. Yes, Zach Parise, Brian Gionta, and Dainius Zubrus need to bounce back on the offense, and the signings could help them. But he bizarrely states that the signing of Rolston will free up Madden's role as a defensive center - a role that Madden still did last season and has been since he's been a Devil - and stated that Patrik Elias and Jamie Langenbrunner could play on Madden's line. Jamie, yes, I can see that and would like that. But, save for some bizarre Sutter line-mixing, Elias is not going to the checking line. Also, Travis Zajac is usually a center, but he should bounce back after a poor sophmore season. Regardless, he's got a good handle on the defense - bold idea predicting the 6 who will play - and the goaltending is straight forward. I see no issue with his prediction of the playoffs; but I don't think Brodeur's workload being lessened will mean a longer playoff run. The team will have to perform better and work harder as a whole in the postseason - it's not all on Brodeur. Still, it's a solid preview in a place I didn't expect it. Good job, anonymous.

By the by, anonymous (the same one? a different one? WHO KNOWS?) also points out the Devils got a mention in ESPN's 10 burning questions for the NHL Preseason. That's mention in the singular, as Pierre LeBrun just stated that they finally (aside: what's this 'finally' junk?) won't make the playoffs. It's not an actual preview, but just a thought. Here's my thought: Marc Lebrun will be proven wrong.

Let's go to the next preview, from a big name in the world of hockey blogging - Greg Wyshynski of Puck Daddy. In the past month, they've had a theme of high school yearbooks for their previews for every team in the season. They are detailed, cover all the bases, and are a little entertaining to boot. They even go ahead and note the bloggers and news sources online for each team. Here's his Devils preview which he gets through without being terribly biased.

He interestingly points out Elias as the player to "break out" this season; which makes some sense since he'll be on the same line as Brian Rolston. He's absolutely right in stating that how the offense does will make the difference between an early playoff exit and a run for the Cup; just look at 1995, 2000, 2001, and 2003 for success and the last few years for further, yet sad proof. I am disappointed he dragged out the same tired trope of the Devils not being excited in his coaching section - if you don't find the Devils exciting and state that more goals equals more filled seats, how come some teams who also play the same kind of defensive hockey and rely on a transition offense get those sellouts, like say, some group of blueshirted chumps across a river from Newark? Seriously. I am also questioning why he doesn't think Zubrus won't be better this season. Most of last season featured Zubrus working to get down low, doing all the little things right, do well enough along the boards, but he was unfortunate that he didn't have consistent linemates (but who did?) and that when he got a scoring chance, a defender/goaltender just got a piece of it at the last minute. Now that he's had a full season under Sutter, I think he'll blossom with a given role. Anyway, Greg thinks the Devils will make the playoffs and the only thing that could screw it all up is the only thing that could screw up New Jersey since 1997. It's a good read, like the other previews on the site, and it's not your standard, by-the-numbers preview. And I'm not just saying that because he mentions this blog.

Let's not talk about this recent preview Greg did with The Pensblog, something he doesn't sound particuarly proud of at Puck Daddy. I don't blame him, but not because of it's content. It's because it just plain sucks if only for further fueling the baseless criticism that the Devils are "boring."

So let's look at IPB. They've done something different for their preview, giving individual thoughts for each individual player and pointing out how they are trending. It's a good idea as it sticks out from the other previews. Some of them make sense, like their rationale for Zubrus and the utter confusion surrounding where Andy Greene's career is going (I couldn't tell you, to be honest, he's a firm tweener unless he shows more at this point). Others are a bit of a head scratcher. I agree that Travis Zajac should have a bounce back year, and Gionta in a contract year should provide a better year than expected, and the rest of the forwards should generally do better; but how can those statements be claimed after saying Elias is trending down? Why can't he bounce back as well when he had the same inconsistencies as everyone else, Ookies? Also, I get it, you don't care for Bobby Holik, but he's not going to Lowell - like getting cut in a knife fight, just expect it and accept it. Anyway, it's a good read, but it doesn't go far to say what they think the team will do. Given the general attitude of how they write about the Devils, I'm going to guess they'll be very pessimistic unless the Devils put together some amazing results. Still, it's a different take from other previews and you should read it for that. McKeen's is the only other one where they had something for every player, but that's fantasy-hockey related anyway. Incidentally, IPB did an even more, uh, different take on the team's trend a few days later. It's...a thing. And I have no comment on it.

IPB's Pookie also put together (or at least posted, maybe it was a collaborative work?) a short preview of the teams at ModFan. Literally short, just ten words at most for each team. A nitpick for the Devils, Pookie, Rolston and Holik were also on the 1995 team.

Fourthly, assuming that is a word, I found this through IPB as well, someone by the name of Pam did this preview at Melt Your Face-off. I know it's in the sidebar, but I don't follow the site; but it appears to be an opinion-based Deadspin-esque hockey blog by Deadspin commenters. Anyway, the preview isn't really much of one as 80% of it is about the horrible toss to the Rangers (true) and the saga of Bobby Holik leaving the team in 2000 to sign with the Rangers and how he wasn't fully missed due to John Madden. Needless to say, Pam isn't plussed with the signings. Anyway, the conclusion is an actual preview - rather a repeat of her short prediction last year - and Pam, who both hates and loves the Devils (in a word, what?) believes history will repeat itself. While I agree the team should be competitive, she doesn't offer much in as a reason as to why. Maybe her point is that not much has changed; but I don't see how signing a top six forward and a veteran center for the fourth line could not lead to any change?

Anyway, in the last seven previews I've read and discussed for far too long for little gain, six of them either have a pessimistic tone with the team or a pressimistic prediction. Originally, my point of doing all this was to get a handle of the general sentiment of what others think of this team. Almost all think the playoffs will happen for New Jersey, but few, if any, are confident in how they'll do. It's not that it's all baseless pessimism, most of it is reasoned out and based on actual results last season. I get that and understand it. Considering some of this pessimism comes from Devils fans, we just can't say "everyone else just doesn't respect New Jersey." The flipside to being a strong franchise is that expectations are high, and for some, the Devils just aren't meeting them by doing well in a tough division in a tighter-than-ever NHL. I don't know, maybe I'm missing something to all of this.

As usual, if you've gotten this far, thanks! And if you know of anymore Devils previews, let me know with a comment or an e-mail. Incidentally, I wrote a short one for another blog that should be up soon; but I don't think I'm in any place to critique or complain about my own work outside that it's likely too dang long.

With the first full day of training camp complete with the veterans, Gulitti has plenty of things to report at Fire & Ice. He's got a guess as to who will be in the starting line up based on who was changing in the main locker room. Now, it's just a guess from Gulitti, but when I saw this list, I find myself agreeing with the guess. I don't see any of these guys not making the team unless someone (e.g. Matthew Corrente) really impresses in preseason to unseat one of the defensemen:

Now, just on a lark, here's what I think the lines will be should Gulitti's guess turn out to be right.

Elias-Rolston-Gionta
Parise-Zajac-Zubrus
Pandolfo-Madden-Langenbrunner
Rupp-Holik-Clarkson

Martin-Salvador
White-Mottau
Oduya-Brookbank

Brodeur
Weekes

Extras: Pelley, Greene

I expect Elias to play with Rolston and Gionta based on Gulitti's report here, where we learn that Elias has no issue playing left wing again and that so far the line seems to be training well together and enjoying it. Left over from that, I figured Parise is a lock for the top six; Zajac will be given a shot in a scoring role again, and Zubrus just to see how he would fit there. The third line is fundamental; Madden and Pandolfo are a given and I think Langenbrunner will do well there as he won't be expected to score as much (and it may seem like he wouldn't regardless). I fully expect Holik to be on the fourth line (he will not be scratched) and I figure Rupp and Clarkson will be there to make it a really physical line. For forward, basically Pelley has the inside track on getting a spot as a scratch and so Petr Vrana and Fedor Fedorov need to impress in training camp if they want to crack into the line up on the fourth line. I don't think Nicklas Bergfors will get in unless a spot opens on the top two lines as he is a scoring winger and his talents would be wasted on the third or fourth lines.

From the second half of the original post where he made this guess, Gulitti informs us that Sutter has been considering changing his defensive pairings. So I figure the defense pairings will reflect that. I took a shot at Brookbank getting the start over Greene since Brookbank was more consistent on the third pairing than Greene - who truly needs to do well in preseason to stay up (or in) New Jersey. Given how training camp goes, this side of the skaters is more volitile. I expect a return of Oduya to the top four in case Salvador-Martin doesn't go well. Outside of Greene, Matthew Corrente has a good chance to become an extra defenseman if he outperforms one of Greene or Brookbank. Sutter mentioned Mottau pairing with White working well, so I don't expect him to drop. Since it's not etched in stone who the #6 guy will be, Corrente has the best chance of all the Devils' prospects to make the team this year.

Goaltending is straight forward. Brodeur is the best there is in this league and will go down as one of the best there was and one of the best there will ever be. What's interesting is that both Gulitti and Rich Chere have reported that Brodeur may not play 77 games this season like he did in 2007-2008. This has led to speculation on various message boards as to how many games Brodeur should play, with some stating that he should rest more for the playoffs.

That's all contingent on how the season plays out; but I'd like to go against my better judgment and remind everyone about the playoff series against the Rangers. Yes, Martin Brodeur didn't play his best and has admitted as such (just look at the Chere article); but it wasn't fatigue. The true root cause was that the team wasn't going to win the series because they just didn't put in the effort until they were losing in the game. I've even stated as such after the first, the second, the third, and the fourth loss in the series. Just because Marty is quick to take the blame doesn't mean it was completely his fault; do not forget that the Devils as a whole got out-worked and couldn't break through. If Kevin Weekes started 10 more games last season and assuming all other things being equal, it wouldn't mean the rest of the team would have performed any better. (Also, if Marty was truly tired, wouldn't have we seen it well before the playoffs?) Let's avoid revisionist history.

Anyway, I think what I've come up for the lines makes sense considering the roster right now for opening night. However, the best part of training camp is upon us - preseason. It will determine who will fight to earn a spot, earn future consideration, and earn themselves a trip back to junior or Lowell. Interesting times are upon us, coinciding with the return of hockey.

If you'd like to read updates about training camp, Tom Gulitti is your man to go check out. He is, as usual, on point and he has all you need to know and more about the scrimmages, who will line up at center between Rolston and Elias on the first line (at first), the free AHL preseason game at the Rock, and that Brian Rolston has a no-trade clause. Hopefully, should Rolston play as well as he can play, a trade will not be necessary regardless of the clause. Anyway, go to Fire & Ice and just keep on scrolling down. Likewise, check out Tibbs at Beast of the East as he aggregates all the Devils articles out there himself.

However, I want to talk about hits. I made an attempt at a hitting analysis from last season similar to the shooting accuracy analysis I did a few months ago. I put off the follow-up to Part 1 because I wasn't quite confident in the accuracy of the hit results I got game to game from the NHL's game reports (pulled from NHL.com). I noticed that some games somehow had way more hits than others. For example, the Devils' seventy-seventh game of the season was against the Rangers at MSG and a total of 104 hits were recorded. In comparison, the Devils' next game was against Philadelphia at the Rock, and despite how those games get, only 21 total hits were logged. I found it hard to believe that there would be that big of a difference in hits recorded, especially against two hated rivals. Different scorers at different games can truly yield extremely high variability. I can understand why Hockey Analysis attempted to adjust the real time super statistic of hitting (among others).

So basically, you may want to take all of this with a grain of salt since I have to assume NHL's reports are correct. I don't know how well the adjustment works nor how it would work on a game to game basis. That said, I think it's an interesting exercise all the same.

Now, that is something right there. From what I've compiled from NHL's reports, the Devils outhit their opponents more often than not in all games and when they do win. More impressively, is that they do so while at The Rock to the tune of approximately 75.61% of all 41 home games. Based on this empirical evidence alone, and with our assumptions, we can conclude that the Devils are definitely not a soft team as they pile up the hits, especially at home. As an aside, the Devils actually outhit their opponents in 21 of the 36 Devils losses (or non-wins to be precise), which is good for a rate of approximately 58.33%.

Again, using our assumptions we find out that this makes sense when we breakdown the average hits per game by the Devils and their opponents. In this case, I determined the averages between Devils wins and losses, Devils at the Rock and on the road, and games where the Devils did and did not outhit their opponents. I expected the Devils to have a higher average of hits than their opponents when they outhit their opponents and especially at home.


From what we see here, my expectations were only half right I took a percent difference to highlight how significant the differences in averages were. I was correct in expecting that the difference in average hits by both sides would favor New Jersey at home. Interestingly, when the Devils win or lose, the difference in averages just under a hit in favor of New Jersey. Given that the Devils outhit their opponents in about 58% of their wins and 58% of their losses, this is a reasonable result. What is truly stark is the difference in average hits by the Devils in games at home and on the road. It's truly massive and given that both sample sizes are the same, 41 games each, it perhaps could be said that the Devils take up their physical game when away from home. Unfortunately for them, so do their opponents, it seems. In addition, check out the averages when the Devils outhit and get outhit. The Devils actually average more hits in the games where they get outhit by their opponents. Again, assuming our assumptions are valid, that's a testament to how tough the Devils are - they don't roll over, it's just that their opponents were more vigorous in taking the body.

Based on the chart, the significant differences appear among our empirical data when the Devils are at home (a difference in averages of 2.756 hits), when the Devils are outhitting their opponents, and when the Devils are being out hit. In those last two cases, the differences in averages is roughly around 4.5 hits (up to 4.667 in the former, down to 4.412 in the latter).

However, given that the Devils average 1.51 more hits when they are being outhit, this brings me back to the issue of the assumption made earlier. I cannot rule out scorer bias when it comes to hits being recorded from game to game. I gave an example of this earlier, but the previous chart provides further suggestion. While the Devils aren't certainly soft, the fact that the Devils' average so many more hits on the road is questionable. From what I've seen of the team, they don't seem to be that more physical on the road than at home and while I'm sure there are games where they have been, I certainly have some doubts that it would translate over the whole season. Likewise, I don't think traveling to the Rock incapacitates opponents from throwing the body by half of what they do at home. Granted, the opponents are teams of varying physical ability, effort on a given night, etc. However, overall, that their average based on NHL's numbers doubles up when they go home definitely raises an eyebrow. Combine that with the earlier example and I cannot come up with a definitive solution.

If we assume there isn't anything wrong with NHL's numbers, we can conclude from the empirical evidence that the Devils were certainly not soft last season. They got more hits than their opponents at home, they stepped up their hitting on the road, and they get more hits than their opponents more often than not in both wins and losses.

While the 58.7% of the Devils' wins come as they outhit their opponent, that 58.3% of their losses come in the same state means that I don't think that there is a correlation between wins and outhitting the opponent. Furthermore, there wasn't a large difference in average hits in wins or losses; those were only significant when the Devils were at home aside from one outhitting the other. Because the initial assumption about NHL's numbers - the scorers recording real time super stats being correct - is suspect, a complete conclusion cannot be reached. However, based on what numbers we do have access to, I am confident in stating that the Devils were definitely not a soft team lacking in physical play. Even when they were being outhit, they average a solid number of hits - moreso when they are leading other team in hits. While the loss of Vitaly Vishnevski will hurt in the hit department and the team in general isn't a hit machine, I don't expect the Devils to become physical doormats in the coming season based on what they showed last season.

With training camp starting in mid-September and a number of teams, including the Devils, starting pre-camp workouts, it's the time where season previews are written, published, and read. The NHL's website has a cavalcade of preview coverage - with, as you would as expect, complete previews for each team. So let's take a look at what NHL staff writer Adam Kimelman has to say about the Devils for this season.

Given that the preview is from NHL.com, it's a very optimistic preview. I don't see the league's website being blunt about it and just say that a team is going to be outright bad. But it's definitely worth reading. Consider the New Jersey Devils' preview - Kimelman correctly points out that the offense needed addressing in the offseason because they have been so bad at it. And as a result, he has more written about the forwards than the defense or the goaltending. Essentially, he doesn't expect the defense to be an issue and he points out what milestones Martin Brodeur will likely break this season. Not just the obvious - career wins - but also in games played and possibly in total saves and minutes. There's not much to say about the defense; so let's consider his section on the forwards which is a cause of some skepticism.

Apparently, Kimelman thinks that Brian Rolston will play at center for New Jersey, with Zach Parise and Brian Gionta on his wing, and all three will therefore have great seasons. That would be great and I agree that Rolston will provide a boost to the offense. However, I'm still not sure Rolston should be placed at center. I've expressed this concern back in July; but for all I know, the Devils will make it work. Also, I'm not sure that Brian Gionta will get a big boost by playing with Rolston and Parise. Gionta was shuffled all over the place last season and he seemingly forgot to crash the net like he did in 2005-2006. He wasn't carrying an offensive burden as much as his (and the team's) inconsistency was a burden on offense. Don't get me wrong, I hope Kimelman is right in this regard; I'm just not as hopeful.

He also touches on Patrik Elias, saying that with Rolston at center, he can go back to left wing. In Kimelman's scenario, that's true. However, he'll be on the second line with, I guess, Travis Zajac and Dainius Zubrus? Or Jamie Langenbrunner? He may be more comfortable at left wing, but I don't know whether that will lead to more points. While it'd be amazing, I am further skeptical that Jay Pandolfo and John Madden will repeat their production from last season. It's going to be up to the top six forwards to improve on their production because if New Jersey is looking to Madden and Pandolfo for scoring, the team's offense clearly has problems.

His reasons for optimism at the end of the column are mostly sound. Martin Brodeur will remain being magnificient. Sutter now knows what he has to do and we'll likely see fewer line-up changes, which in turn can allow for more stability and allow chemistry to develop. But Zach Parise hitting 100 or more points? That's a rather bold prediction, Kimelman. Patrik Elias came close in 2000-2001 with 96 and that's from having a monster season while playing the whole season on the storied A Line. To hit triple digits I would think that Parise would have to have a monster season like no other in Devils' history and have the right chemistry with his linemates and stay with the same linemates and stay healthy and hope opposing defenses can't figure him out. Brian Rolston and Parise's development alone won't be enough. I'd love to be proven wrong about this, but I don't think we're going to see that yet.

Kimelman's preview, as I said earlier, is optimistic and the preview itself is worth reading as it's a decent, to-the-point summary of the Devils. The additional articles linked in the preview are also worth your time. However, I think the more optimistic parts should be taken with grains of salt, so to speak. If you're looking for a comprehensive Devils preview, this alone won't do it.

Regression analysis! I haven't done those in over a year. I'll definitely have to learn how to do those again.

Amazingly, the Devils have only seen two instigator calls this past season and both went against Dan Boyle on March 7, 2008. Really. Here's the NHL.com recap. Boyle was throwing down with Zach Parise in the third period, and he got the book thrown at him for starting it all (plus a game misconduct to go with it). The Devils did not score on the ensuing power play, but they did win the game in overtime, 2-1. I hope I didn't completely miss something (and if I did, let me know!), but it makes sense to me. The Devils don't go looking for fights - they have been usually mutual to a point. Either way, the sample size doesn't seem to be large enough to do an analysis on instigator calls alone. But I'll try to recall regression analysis for future use. Thanks, Rod!

Today, let's take a closer look at the recent history of Jamie Langenbrunner. I've done something similar for Sergei Brylin. I'd like to make this a somewhat regular-sometimes feature for various Devils whenever I think there may be something interesting in there. However, the purpose of this isn't to show that Langenbrunner is starting to run out of steam at age 33 - this will won't show that at all. Actually, the driver for this is a comment in this recent post (aside from the MST3k-style names). In response to a comment, I stated that 20 goals would be far more reasonable for Langenbrunner in terms of expectations. While I said that then, would I be right? (And would such fine readers such as yourselves see that some comments could lead to content sometimes?) And either way, what would be a reasonable set of expectations?

This is always a difficult question for a player like Jamie Langenbrunner when what he brings to the table isn't easily quantified. Or quantified at all. This includes his defensive abilities, his leadership, and his work ethic. You really can't discount his clutchness - something James Mirtle even noted when Jamie returned last season. Fortunately (or not), the question has to do with production and that's always quantifiable. Ultimately, hockey is a results-oriented business so let's look at the last 7 season's of Jamie's production.

This chart of his last 7 seasons' production is particularly interesting. Remember the following: Langenbrunner was traded to the Devils in 2001-02 at the trade deadline that season; and NHL.com's stats section doesn't have time on ice or shifts per game stats before the 2002-03 season anymore.

First thing of note: he sets a career high in points in his first full season with the Devils. Seriously, here are his career numbers. While the Devils were generally struggling with scoring that season, Langenbrunner really raised his game for the benefit of the team. He shot more than ever did in his career then, he came one goal short of tying his career high, and showed he deserved the amount of time he was getting. Clearly, the Devils traded Jason Arnott and Randy McKay to get him more than Joe Niuewendyk (17 goals, 28 assists). Langenbrunner followed that great season with a fantastic playoffs. Combine this when you consider his solid defensive work and he truly showed he was a prototypical Devil - hard work, solid defense, and, hey, even some scoring. A much better performance than his previous 2 seasons with Dallas.

Second and related to the first: Not all of these things alone necessarily lead to consistent scoring. His average ice time per game was his second highest in his most productive season; yet it was his second lowest in terms of shifts per game. Also, while Jamie topped this total number of shots taken with a whopping 243 to lead to his most points per season, it was only in his second season of taking that many shots did he break that plateau.

Third: When you take a look at each full season as a Devil, it's clear that outside occurrences has hindered or helped Langenbrunner scoring. His first full season was a breakout year. He had every reason to show to his new team that he can bring a lot to the table and did as such, meshing very quickly and very well with John Madden and Jay Pandolfo. His second season was marred by a nasty knee injury and that led to a lot of inconsistent play. His third season was a rebound year, with a better knee and a year without NHL hockey to get back in the 50-point plateau and earn plenty of minutes in all situations. His fourth season was his best yet in terms of production, even with a drop in playing time, thanks largely to his chemistry and success with Travis Zajac and Zach Parise as linemates. In his fifth season, Langenbrunner started the year hurt and various line combinations - including a return of the PZL Unit (a.k.a. ZZ Pops, Puzzle Line, Pretzel Line, etc.) led to an inconsistent year of production for the new captain. In the good years with New Jersey, Langenbrunner was generally healthy, had some good linemates, and turned his hard work into results. In the bad years with New Jersey, injuries have played a role. With Dallas prior to that, I do not know - sorry.

So what of all this? Overall, considering the injuries, let's take a look at the points per game. Langenbrunner has been up and down a bit, but he averages about .64 points per game in his 5 seasons with New Jersey. Take out the 2003-04 season with the knee injury and Langenbrunner averages at least that much in points per game. Meaning he'll score, but not often enough to be a "go to" guy for scoring - acceptable as a second line scorer. He'll shoot quite a lot (albeit frustratingly inaccurate at time), which something he's really improved on prior to his time with New Jersey, but it's not going to go in as much as we'd all like it to be. He's never been much of a goal scorer in his career as it is. If you see him on the first line, it's either because he's got a good thing going with some players for a couple games, or no one else has taken the role as their own. While we saw that last season, I certainly hope it doesn't continue (see Brian Rolston). Again, we're talking about a player whose best season was only 60 points. That's not first-line caliber.

So in terms of what we've see Jamie's a second-line scorer. Simple enough, right? Not quite. Langenbrunner has always been responsible defensively, and as a result, he receives minutes on the shorthanded situations as well as the man advantages. For example, he had an average of 1:53 per game on the ice on the penalty kill last season. With Rolston and Gionta both on the roster, as well as the darkhorse Dainius Zubrus, Langenbrunner may be pushed out of the second line and be featured on the third line with Madden and Pandolfo. That wouldn't be such a bad thing and we could see whether the J-Line still has some spark from way back when. But with an increased focus on defensive hockey on that third line, Langenbrunner may not get the offensive opportunities that he would on the second line.

Therefore, in terms of expectations, we should be fairly pleased if Langenbrunner picks up about 45 points. He produced 41 in an injury-shortened season under a new coach and some inconsistent play. That shouldn't be asking for too much. 50 and up is definitely possible (and maybe even 20 goals!) if Langenbrunner is in the top 6 for most of the season (and not in a constantly revolving lineup) and he's healthy. That said, I really don't think he's going to get super-hot and drop 60-70 points for New Jersey; nor is he going to tally 25 or more goals. Langenbrunner's not getting any younger and he was never that kind of player to begin with. Fortunately for us, he doesn't need to be - he just needs to keep working hard, keep playing his way, and continue to lead the team.

For some reason, late last night, I got to thinking how the Devils generally do when there's a fight during a game. Yeah, I don't know it popped in there, but it did. So this morning, I decided to look at all the games last season and see how many fights there were and whether or not there was any connection between it and winning.

To do this, I went to NHL.com and check out the basic recaps for each game. Each recap has a list of penalties, so finding fighting majors and the score (of course) was fairly simple. Just as important as the number of fights there were, when they time they took place. I don't like fighting and I really wouldn't miss it if it were eliminated from professional hockey. That said, there is a train of thought that a fight would "wake a team up" so to speak. It does get the home fans all up in an uproar, I can't deny that. Whether or not it changes the momentum of a game is another question. What you, I, and your favorite auntie cheer or not cheer for is immaterial. The goal of a hockey game is to win, and that will be the focus of this then.

So in addition to counting the number of fights and seeing whether the Devils won, I subjectively decided whether that fight made a difference in the game. I would like to emphasize the word difference here. If the lead changes or a team ties it up after a fight in the same period, I would recognize the fight could have had an affect on the team's performance. Were the Devils losing, a fight takes place, and the Devils remain losing - I don't think the fight changed much of the game's course. I limited it to being within the same period only because an intermission has additional variables come into play when it comes to a team's performance - a leader making a speech, the coach giving the team what's for, and so forth. A fight in the first period, I think, isn't likely to be a catalyst or part of one when the Devils score twice in the third period to win the game. Also, it's not to say, "Well, David Clarkson threw down and the Devils scored 2 goals afterwards; the fight was totally responsible." I'm saying it could have. It's a subjective argument, but I felt it could provide an interesting insight. I understand it's flawed because a game could change in momentum but not yield any goals; however, there's no clearer way of showing that team "turned it around" or "turned it up" other than lighting the lamp.

I also split the difference between all fights and "in-game" fights. I'm defining a fight to be in-game is if it took place within the normal course of a game. Some fights/scrums/etc. take place at the very end of the game when it's all pretty much decided. Fists are thrown out of frustration more than anything else and it ultimately has no affect on the game. So I decided to only really count those in any analysis. Fights at the beginning of the game or in the middle of it would change any momentum on the one place that matters - the scoreboard. At the end of the game, not so much.

Fourthly, I'm only looking at this past season. Before you comment or e-mail me that "How dare I ignore Cam Janssen," I want to point out that the Devils committed 16 more major penalties this past season than in 2006-2007. While not all major penalties are fighting majors, the Devils fought enough times this past season such that it is mathematically impossible for it to be fewer than 2 seasons ago - regardless of "Cammer The Hammer." So much for cries that the team last season lost its "toughness."

Lastly, I'm only counting wins here. Shootout and overtime losses yield points, yes, but they aren't wins. And wins are what's important here. Anyway, there's no need for fancy charts or graphs because the numbers are straight forward:

• Number of Devils fights: 45
• Number of games with a Devil fighting "in-game": 32 (34 including the end-game fights)
• Number of Devils fights "in-game": 42
• Number of fights that changed the course of the score: 13
• Devils record when they don't fight: 26-22 (Winning Percentage: 54.16667%)
• Devils record when they fight "in-game": 19-13 (Winning Percentage: 59.375%)
• Devils record when they fight but not "in-game": 1-1 (Winning Percentage: 50%)
• Devils record when the fight changed the course of the score: 6-7 (Winning Percentage: 46.1538%)

Well, my original thought going into this was that fighting really wouldn't have a correlation. And I'm proven somewhat wrong. The Devils actually had better winning percentage when someone in red does throw down their gloves this past season. Not that they did bad without fighting - but the percentages are pretty clear about that. It's also not as if there's a small percentage of fighting; a good 93.3% of these fights are during the course of the game where things can change and approximately 39% of all Devils fights have this kind of fight.

That said, it's not that drastic of a change in winning percentage for fans to demand a fight every game. Of these 42 "in-game" fights, only 13 of them led to a significant change in the game. The Devils ended up slightly under the 50% winning percentage mark, as only 6 of those changes ultimately led to Devils wins. Therefore, most of the Devils fights do not led to a change in the game and when they do, it's almost a coin flip as to whether it works out for New Jersey.

Going into this analysis, I was under the impression that A) the Devils didn't fight all that much and B) the fights don't lead to too many wins - too many of them take place after the game's over, the Devils would likely continue sleepwalking through games regardless of the fight, etc. Thought A was quickly proven wrong, a point further justified when you consider New Jersey was in the middle of the league for major penalties. Thought B was refuted by the Devils happenstance to win 19 games out of the 32 where there were fights during the game. Only 2 fights were at the end of games; and there were even a couple that had multiple fights (most per game this season was 3, achieved three times).

However, it doesn't seem that the Devils fighting lead to the Devils playing better and more productive hockey from this past season. They are mostly just fights that happen in the game. This makes sense, otherwise, we'd see teams all over the league bend over backwards to keep enforcers, tough guys, and goons along for long contracts. In short, I don't think the Devils - or its fans - should be looking for fights to play better hockey - it likely will not happen. Considering most of the fights are by one David Clarkson, a young talented winger, I still think it's best if he's on the ice on shifts that would take place when he's not in the box for 5 minutes.

So far this offseason, the Devils' signings have taken three forms (all posts by Gulitti):

1. New forwards - Brian Rolston and Bobby Holik.

2. Depth signings for Lowell - Jay Leach, Jon DiSalvatore, Chad Wiseman, and the return of Scott Clemmensen to the Devils organization.

3. Re-signing Jay Pandolfo, Petr Vrana, and Bryce Salvador.

Notice that the team didn't sign any new defensemen. There's a common thought process I've noticed from Devils fans that the defense could use an upgrade for next season - an example of this was mentioned by Tom Gulitti after the initial free agency extravaganza. It's definitely a reasonable desire. After all, good is never as good as great; and even the best teams in the league in any sport can always find areas to upgrade. When Gulitti talked with Lou after the Salvador signing, the GM we trust says:

If you take that to mean that Salvador is part of the Devils upgrading their defense, then I'm inclined to agree. Among the Devils blueliners, Salvador does bring experience - which is invaluable for a position like defenseman. He's also a solid, stay-at-home defenseman, of which the Devils do not have too many players of that type. The only other one I'd confidently say fits that style is Colin White. Most of the other defensemen are more all-around (note: that is not the same as two-way), decent defensemen. A full year of Salvador should prove to be a benefit.

Curiously, Lou said that the retainment of Salvador is not the only move he'll make, giving further fire to the thought that the Devils need an upgrade on defense. To a point, this makes sense. The Devils blueline - with 8 signed and 2 prospects who will be looked at closely in training camp - there doesn't seem to be a true puck-moving NHL-caliber defenseman in the group. Paul Martin and Johnny Oduya - two players who have really stepped up their game last season - showed flashes of that they could do it, but not enough to do so on a regular basis. Given that the Devils' transitional game relied a lot on guys like Scott Niedermayer and Brian Rafalski to make that first pass or to lead the breakout, this has been a flaw in the Devils' offense.

Therefore, I think it's important to note that if the Devils trade for a defensemen - at this point, I think they will make a trade because they don't have a lot of cap space to sign someone significant right now - it should be for someone who specializes in passing, puck movement, puck control, puck poise, and other traits associated with that sort of thing. I would not expect your traditional "#1" defenseman to lead the blueline. While it would be great for the defense, those players don't just grow on trees. Such talent commands a high price in a trade, and I don't think it'd be worth giving up, say, Zach Parise for a stud defensemen like Jay Bouwmeester. If only because it would further reduce an already low goal-producing team just to improve the defense. Also, with the signing of Salvador, I don't think the Devils need another stay-at-home defenseman.

That all said, it's worth pointing out that the Devils' defense last year wasn't all that bad. On paper, it was littered with questions. "Can Martin really lead the defense?" "Will Johnny Oduya stop falling down and be a top 4 defenseman?" "Who in the hell are Mike Mottau, Andy Greene, and Sheldon Brookbank and why are they getting so many minutes?" "How will Karel Rachunek and Vitaly Vishnevski fit into the team?" (Answer to the last one: Not particularly well.) Questions aside, they did a lot better as a unit than one would think. While the goals against total was so low thanks to the Best Goalie in the World, Martin Brodeur, the defense did help him out. Yes, the opposition was more accurate than New Jersey, but the defense did enough to limit them to an average of 27.5 shots per game. That's good for eighth lowest in the league, and an average of .2 fewer shots per game would have put the team in the top 5 in that category. As excellent as Marty is (as well as John Madden and Pandolfo), that stat is primarily a result of the play of the blueline - and it's a pretty impressive one, I think.

The coaching staff did a great job handling 8 (and eventually 9) defensemen and having the unit play much better than it would look on paper. Interestingly enough, I think the defense will be better in a way should most of the same players stay together. Just like with forwards, defensemen build chemistry with each other. With improved communication, knowing just what your partner will do in various situation, and knowing what to do while your partner is along the boards or in front of the net or elsewhere, the defense as a whole will be much better. As the season went on, the individual players started performing with more confidence and providing better performances. The best example of this is Johnny Oduya, who went from depth defenseman with an unfortunate knack of falling down, to playing 20+ solid minutes with Paul Martin. The role of chemistry is invaluable among defensemen, just as it is with forwards. Coming into this season, Mottau, Brookbank, and Greene would all have had a full season of hockey. They could be even better this season now that they know what to expect. The same can go for Martin - who has grown into the #1 role for New Jersey - and Oduya - who has grown into playing well on the top pairing. The chemistry among these players will only be further solidified, short of a bizarre pairing changes at a constant rate.

It's now time to take a look at the return of Bobby Holik! The center of the famous CRASH LINE, where he centered Randy McKay and Mike Peluso as a fearsome threesome that, well, crashed the other team to great success in 1995. He developed into a shutdown checking center and rightly moved up from the fourth line. In fact, he even showed some production, picking up at least 60 points from the 1996-97 season through 1998-99. While his numbers dropped from then, he was still an important part of the team on the third line (plus, he was crucial in the 2000-2001 Stanley Cup run).

Unfortunately, Holik left a very, very sour taste in all Devils' fans mouths when he signed with Our Hated Rivals for a $9.5 million/year contract. It was shocking, anger-inducing, and laughably ridiculous all at the same time. However, since then Holik's career has been on a down turn. He was bought out by the Rangers after two years. Don Waddel felt Holik would be a solid addition to the Atlanta Thrashers. A ton of money and three years later, he was not retained. Needless to say, the numbers for Holik's Atlanta tenure don't look good. In fact, the only thing to note from his stats is that he played all 82 games in the last two seasons, he was excellent on faceoffs (58.4% faceoff win percentage last year), he's still big, and he grew some hair.

What I could find about Holik online isn't complimentary at all. Mortimer Peacock at The Blueland Chronicle stated that Bobby Holik did (intercourse)-all for the team in his end of the season awards. The Falconer (ASIDE: The Falconer is awesome. This a must read post.) at Do The Thrashers Have Long Talons? is more descriptive of Holik's three stop with the Thrashers in this ruthlessly honest essay about Atlanta's current woes. Holik didn't provide leadership, he wasn't good on penalty kills, he wasn't consistently intense, he was well overpaid, and the only solace you can take is that he wins a lot of faceoffs. Ouch. Pat Lackey at the NHL Fanhouse bluntly states that this wasn't a good signing. Greg Wyshynski at Puck Daddy is a bit more apologetic in stating that he could help out on the third line.

Let's face facts. Holik is not going to be seeing any big minutes unless injuries happen and he needs to fill a role for a game or two. Holik is also not going to be a leader, he's not going to be the proverbial "straw that stirs the drink," and he's not likely going to be a difference maker. His production has declined, he isn't getting any younger at age 37 and will likely not learn some new skills to rejuvenate his career, there's no real need for him on special teams except to win crucial faceoffs, and his best role has always been as a checker. And that's perfectly OK with me. Because I envision Holik not to take any of those big roles. No, I expect him to give John Madden a rest.

Before you write angry notes and/or never read this site again, let me explain. I am very much pro-Madden. He is clearly the top checking forward on this team he's regarded among the best in the league in that role, evidenced by his Selke Trophy Finalist selection. He gets all the tough assignments against the best forwards on the opposing team on a regular basis. He also played more minutes than all the other forwards last season with an average ice time of 19:30. While the Devils have been successful defensively due to the blueline playing better than the sum of their parts (or how they are on paper, depending on which cliche you'd like to use), the unit of Pandolfo-Madden-X has been a big help as well. During his Selke analysis, you'll find Mirle's methodology rates Pandolfo and Madden highly in this regard. What does this have to do with Holik? Plenty.

At this point in his career and given the Devils' current status, Holik can fit the bill as a second defensive center. Even though he's not close to being the player he was for New Jersey, Holik is still regarded as a third line center. On the Devils, he won't even have to do that. Among the various changes among the line up, there wasn't a consistent fourth line (or a first and second line, but I digress). Rod Pelley is a defensive forward, but he's also a rookie - looking like, well, a rookie in some games. I don't think Pelley's bad, but he certainly didn't make enough a case to keep him as a regular. Holik can provide the experience in that role that Pelley can't just yet. Given that a big part of defense involves positioning, anticipation, and hockey sense, experience is invaluable.

So instead of Pelley, let's modify Wyshynski's thought, and consider Holik as the Devils' fourth line center. With that move, he can provide the Devils the base for a viable second checking line. In Holik you have his defensive skills and his proficiency on faceoffs helping keeping possession. As far as wingers go, David Clarkson didn't look out of place on defense when he played with Pandolfo and Madden. Clarkson can be a physical force, aggressive - even agitating - against opposition forwards, and can be an interesting fit in this possible checking line. For the other winger, this is more open. If the Devils want it to be a physical defensive line, Mike Rupp can bring the pain along with Holik (I know he's 37, but he's still 6'4" and 230 lbs. and had 147 hits for Atlanta last year) and Clarkson. If they want to favor youth on this checking line, they could try Pelley at wing to see how it goes or give the supposedly Sergei-Brylin-like Petr Vrana a shot. Pelley has a good upside as a checker, but I'm not sure how Vrana can handle it - so I'd favor Pelley going into camp. So as long as defense is the goal, it should work.

Just by considering Holik as a defensive center on the fourth line the Devils have accomplished two things. First, they don't need to rely completely on Pandolfo-Madden-X to be the one-stop shop for line matching. Pandolfo and Madden won't have to have to take so many shifts to help the Devils not concede goals. This will leave them more rested for their shifts, which always good. Second, should the unit play well enough, oppositions are going to have hard time setting up their lines. In the past, they could move their best forwards around so they are on the ice when Madden is getting tired or isn't there. They could hit the Devils with their secondary (or tertiary!) scoring lines when the Devils won't have their third line out there. With a secondary checking line, the opposition can't just wait out the Madden line and hope for weaker opposition.

So Holik was a poor leader for Atlanta, so he wasn't good at scoring for the team, and so he wasn't particularly into all the games he played. So what? The fourth line was never much of a scoring line in the history of this franchise, so I don't think anyone reasonable will is expecting 40-50 points from Holik. No one will ask Holik to become a leader for the team, with established veterans already filling those needs (e.g. Madden, Elias, Langenbrunner, White, etc.). Holik won't have to play big minutes on a fourth line and he won't be needed on a penalty killing unit already well filled with forwards who have been doing a good job at it. If he's dogging it, Sutter will almost definitely not put up with it. These criticisms may even not be applicable for the role I'm thinking Holik should be in for New Jersey. He just needs to win faceoffs, play good positioning hockey for 8-12 minutes, frustrate the opposition's forwards a bit, and that in of itself will provide an extra dimension of defense for the team. That's always good for the team.

The worst-case-scenario out of all this is that: Holik totally sucks. He comes into camp out of shape, he doesn't have his heart in the season, and he gets dumped (bought out, down to Lowell, etc.). A loss of $2.5 million isn't good, but it is only for this season. After which, the Devils will probably look long term as to what they want to do with the fourth line. That all said, with the Holik signing, the fourth line doesn't have to be a low-minute line just there to provide some hits. It can provide some good use and I'd like to think the signing of Holik shows that the Devils organization may be thinking the same way.

I've read this little post from Gulitti about the possibility Patrik Elias may be shifting from center back to his standard spot at left wing now that Brian Rolston was signed a few days back. Since then, I've been mulling the possible lines we could see for the Devils. Mind you, the Devils have 13 forwards and I think one of them - particularly the one from Rochester, New York - may be traded. At first glance, this makes sense. Elias has played the majority of his career at left wing, only playing center for significant portions in 2002 and last season. Rolston has been a center for most of his career, but he's been listed as a right wing for last season.

But don't take just my word for it - let's see what the Wild fandom (at least, bloggers who support the Wild) has to say about Rolston. They have seen him a lot more than I have, at least. Wild Puck Banter says he plays in all situations and is a good all-around player. 18,568 Reasons Why seemingly concurs, stating that he's got a great slap shot for the power play, he plays a two-way game while providing the offense, and he's good on the penalty kill. On a more cautious note, Wild View from Section 216 says that Rolston tended to disappear for stretches during the season. Michael Russo of Russo Rants of the Minneapolis StarTribune noted similar praises for his scoring, his slap shot, his penalty killing, and being a "good dude" when his rights were traded. If you want a more objective take, Sportsnet's profile of Brian Rolston concurs with all of this - including his lack of playmaking ability and confidence issues.

This all said, I think it's clear that Rolston is going to be a feature forward for the Devils. Sutter would be crazy not to give Rolston minutes on the top line or on the power play (especially the power play). I can see the penalty killing forwards still remaining as Jay Pandolfo, John Madden, Patrik Elias, and Jamie Langenbrunner; but I'd expect Rolston to work his way in there. Basically I expect and welcome Rolston as a big minute forward in all positions. We know his strengths, we know he can play wing or center, but here's why I don't think Rolston should move to center just yet.

Brian Rolston has not been good at faceoffs recently - and that's a main reason he was listed at right wing for the Wild, winning only 67 out of 165. I think Rolston is definitely worthy of being on the first line; but a 40.6% winning percentage last season doesn't inspire confidence. Elias was even better than that with a 45.6% winning percentage last season. Yes, Elias took a lot more faceoffs; but Rolston has struggled whenever he had to take a draw in all three seasons with Minnesota, winning 46.7% and 45.4% in 2006 and 2007, respectively. I doubt that Rolston will get any better at faceoffs soon. Should he center the first line, don't expect the Devils to keep the puck off the draw. Not that Elias is much better; but he's at least proven as being better than Rolston based on the last season. It explains why the Wild moved him to the side.

And he's been great while he was there - picking up 96 goals in the last three seasons there, while remaining as a solid, all-around forward. What's more is that given his weaknesses - struggling in the middle of the season, not being a playmaker - playing on the wing would be best to offset those. The center generally is a focal point of the offense and say what you will about Elias, but he's got the vision and the passing (most of the time) necessary to make plays consistently at center. Rolston won't have to worry about that.


From considering all this, I think it would be best for the Devils to begin with Elias remaining at center and Rolston providing some finish on the right side. We know what Elias can do in the middle and Rolston's past success has came at wing. Given his deficiencies as well, I think that the Devils would be better off now penciling him on the right side of Elias. With Parise on his left, we could see a pretty good first line for the Devils - two finishers and a playmaker who can finish if he could shoot better (and luckier). As always, I could be proven completely wrong - so take all this with some salt.