Thursday, September 18, 2008
Hitting Analysis of 2007-2008 Part 2
If you'd like to read updates about training camp, Tom Gulitti is your man to go check out. He is, as usual, on point and he has all you need to know and more about the scrimmages, who will line up at center between Rolston and Elias on the first line (at first), the free AHL preseason game at the Rock, and that Brian Rolston has a no-trade clause. Hopefully, should Rolston play as well as he can play, a trade will not be necessary regardless of the clause. Anyway, go to Fire & Ice and just keep on scrolling down. Likewise, check out Tibbs at Beast of the East as he aggregates all the Devils articles out there himself.
However, I want to talk about hits. I made an attempt at a hitting analysis from last season similar to the shooting accuracy analysis I did a few months ago. I put off the follow-up to Part 1 because I wasn't quite confident in the accuracy of the hit results I got game to game from the NHL's game reports (pulled from NHL.com). I noticed that some games somehow had way more hits than others. For example, the Devils' seventy-seventh game of the season was against the Rangers at MSG and a total of 104 hits were recorded. In comparison, the Devils' next game was against Philadelphia at the Rock, and despite how those games get, only 21 total hits were logged. I found it hard to believe that there would be that big of a difference in hits recorded, especially against two hated rivals. Different scorers at different games can truly yield extremely high variability. I can understand why Hockey Analysis attempted to adjust the real time super statistic of hitting (among others).
So basically, you may want to take all of this with a grain of salt since I have to assume NHL's reports are correct. I don't know how well the adjustment works nor how it would work on a game to game basis. That said, I think it's an interesting exercise all the same.
Anyway, I forge on because what I am looking at is how do the Devils do when it comes to hits overall? Do they win more games when they out hit their opponent, or does it seem like it's not that significant? Do they seem to hit more on the road? Let's get a basic overview, first:
Now, that is something right there. From what I've compiled from NHL's reports, the Devils outhit their opponents more often than not in all games and when they do win. More impressively, is that they do so while at The Rock to the tune of approximately 75.61% of all 41 home games. Based on this empirical evidence alone, and with our assumptions, we can conclude that the Devils are definitely not a soft team as they pile up the hits, especially at home. As an aside, the Devils actually outhit their opponents in 21 of the 36 Devils losses (or non-wins to be precise), which is good for a rate of approximately 58.33%.
Again, using our assumptions we find out that this makes sense when we breakdown the average hits per game by the Devils and their opponents. In this case, I determined the averages between Devils wins and losses, Devils at the Rock and on the road, and games where the Devils did and did not outhit their opponents. I expected the Devils to have a higher average of hits than their opponents when they outhit their opponents and especially at home.
From what we see here, my expectations were only half right I took a percent difference to highlight how significant the differences in averages were. I was correct in expecting that the difference in average hits by both sides would favor New Jersey at home. Interestingly, when the Devils win or lose, the difference in averages just under a hit in favor of New Jersey. Given that the Devils outhit their opponents in about 58% of their wins and 58% of their losses, this is a reasonable result. What is truly stark is the difference in average hits by the Devils in games at home and on the road. It's truly massive and given that both sample sizes are the same, 41 games each, it perhaps could be said that the Devils take up their physical game when away from home. Unfortunately for them, so do their opponents, it seems. In addition, check out the averages when the Devils outhit and get outhit. The Devils actually average more hits in the games where they get outhit by their opponents. Again, assuming our assumptions are valid, that's a testament to how tough the Devils are - they don't roll over, it's just that their opponents were more vigorous in taking the body.
Based on the chart, the significant differences appear among our empirical data when the Devils are at home (a difference in averages of 2.756 hits), when the Devils are outhitting their opponents, and when the Devils are being out hit. In those last two cases, the differences in averages is roughly around 4.5 hits (up to 4.667 in the former, down to 4.412 in the latter).
However, given that the Devils average 1.51 more hits when they are being outhit, this brings me back to the issue of the assumption made earlier. I cannot rule out scorer bias when it comes to hits being recorded from game to game. I gave an example of this earlier, but the previous chart provides further suggestion. While the Devils aren't certainly soft, the fact that the Devils' average so many more hits on the road is questionable. From what I've seen of the team, they don't seem to be that more physical on the road than at home and while I'm sure there are games where they have been, I certainly have some doubts that it would translate over the whole season. Likewise, I don't think traveling to the Rock incapacitates opponents from throwing the body by half of what they do at home. Granted, the opponents are teams of varying physical ability, effort on a given night, etc. However, overall, that their average based on NHL's numbers doubles up when they go home definitely raises an eyebrow. Combine that with the earlier example and I cannot come up with a definitive solution.
If we assume there isn't anything wrong with NHL's numbers, we can conclude from the empirical evidence that the Devils were certainly not soft last season. They got more hits than their opponents at home, they stepped up their hitting on the road, and they get more hits than their opponents more often than not in both wins and losses.
While the 58.7% of the Devils' wins come as they outhit their opponent, that 58.3% of their losses come in the same state means that I don't think that there is a correlation between wins and outhitting the opponent. Furthermore, there wasn't a large difference in average hits in wins or losses; those were only significant when the Devils were at home aside from one outhitting the other. Because the initial assumption about NHL's numbers - the scorers recording real time super stats being correct - is suspect, a complete conclusion cannot be reached. However, based on what numbers we do have access to, I am confident in stating that the Devils were definitely not a soft team lacking in physical play. Even when they were being outhit, they average a solid number of hits - moreso when they are leading other team in hits. While the loss of Vitaly Vishnevski will hurt in the hit department and the team in general isn't a hit machine, I don't expect the Devils to become physical doormats in the coming season based on what they showed last season.
Again, using our assumptions we find out that this makes sense when we breakdown the average hits per game by the Devils and their opponents. In this case, I determined the averages between Devils wins and losses, Devils at the Rock and on the road, and games where the Devils did and did not outhit their opponents. I expected the Devils to have a higher average of hits than their opponents when they outhit their opponents and especially at home.
From what we see here, my expectations were only half right I took a percent difference to highlight how significant the differences in averages were. I was correct in expecting that the difference in average hits by both sides would favor New Jersey at home. Interestingly, when the Devils win or lose, the difference in averages just under a hit in favor of New Jersey. Given that the Devils outhit their opponents in about 58% of their wins and 58% of their losses, this is a reasonable result. What is truly stark is the difference in average hits by the Devils in games at home and on the road. It's truly massive and given that both sample sizes are the same, 41 games each, it perhaps could be said that the Devils take up their physical game when away from home. Unfortunately for them, so do their opponents, it seems. In addition, check out the averages when the Devils outhit and get outhit. The Devils actually average more hits in the games where they get outhit by their opponents. Again, assuming our assumptions are valid, that's a testament to how tough the Devils are - they don't roll over, it's just that their opponents were more vigorous in taking the body.
Based on the chart, the significant differences appear among our empirical data when the Devils are at home (a difference in averages of 2.756 hits), when the Devils are outhitting their opponents, and when the Devils are being out hit. In those last two cases, the differences in averages is roughly around 4.5 hits (up to 4.667 in the former, down to 4.412 in the latter).
However, given that the Devils average 1.51 more hits when they are being outhit, this brings me back to the issue of the assumption made earlier. I cannot rule out scorer bias when it comes to hits being recorded from game to game. I gave an example of this earlier, but the previous chart provides further suggestion. While the Devils aren't certainly soft, the fact that the Devils' average so many more hits on the road is questionable. From what I've seen of the team, they don't seem to be that more physical on the road than at home and while I'm sure there are games where they have been, I certainly have some doubts that it would translate over the whole season. Likewise, I don't think traveling to the Rock incapacitates opponents from throwing the body by half of what they do at home. Granted, the opponents are teams of varying physical ability, effort on a given night, etc. However, overall, that their average based on NHL's numbers doubles up when they go home definitely raises an eyebrow. Combine that with the earlier example and I cannot come up with a definitive solution.
If we assume there isn't anything wrong with NHL's numbers, we can conclude from the empirical evidence that the Devils were certainly not soft last season. They got more hits than their opponents at home, they stepped up their hitting on the road, and they get more hits than their opponents more often than not in both wins and losses.
While the 58.7% of the Devils' wins come as they outhit their opponent, that 58.3% of their losses come in the same state means that I don't think that there is a correlation between wins and outhitting the opponent. Furthermore, there wasn't a large difference in average hits in wins or losses; those were only significant when the Devils were at home aside from one outhitting the other. Because the initial assumption about NHL's numbers - the scorers recording real time super stats being correct - is suspect, a complete conclusion cannot be reached. However, based on what numbers we do have access to, I am confident in stating that the Devils were definitely not a soft team lacking in physical play. Even when they were being outhit, they average a solid number of hits - moreso when they are leading other team in hits. While the loss of Vitaly Vishnevski will hurt in the hit department and the team in general isn't a hit machine, I don't expect the Devils to become physical doormats in the coming season based on what they showed last season.
Labels: 2008 Season, 2008-09 Preseason, Devils Analysis, Devils Issues
# posted by John Fischer @ 9:50 PM 3 comments 
Friday, August 08, 2008
Quick Fighting Note
"It would be interesting to take a closer look at the penalty that comes with the fight (the extra two that one team might get for instigator penalty), as any goal scored during that power play is a direct consequence of the fighting. Moreover, it would be interesting to use this instigator penalty as an indep variable to run a regression to make your point."
Regression analysis! I haven't done those in over a year. I'll definitely have to learn how to do those again.
However, I just went through all the games the Devils had fights in them. The fights break down into two categories: Fights where a player was assessed an extra penalty (e.g. holding, roughing) along with the fighting major and fights where it was just one fighting major for both fighters. While it'll be interesting to look at those extra penalties; I must stress that they aren't the same as instigator penalties. Usually, from what I've seen, those extra minors are for what happened prior to the fight (e.g. a dangerous hit/play leading to a fight).
Amazingly, the Devils have only seen two instigator calls this past season and both went against Dan Boyle on March 7, 2008. Really. Here's the NHL.com recap. Boyle was throwing down with Zach Parise in the third period, and he got the book thrown at him for starting it all (plus a game misconduct to go with it). The Devils did not score on the ensuing power play, but they did win the game in overtime, 2-1. I hope I didn't completely miss something (and if I did, let me know!), but it makes sense to me. The Devils don't go looking for fights - they have been usually mutual to a point. Either way, the sample size doesn't seem to be large enough to do an analysis on instigator calls alone. But I'll try to recall regression analysis for future use. Thanks, Rod!
Labels: 2008 Offseason, 2008 Season, Devils Analysis, Devils Issues
# posted by John Fischer @ 10:45 PM 0 comments
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Fighting and Wins in 2007-2008
For some reason, late last night, I got to thinking how the Devils generally do when there's a fight during a game. Yeah, I don't know it popped in there, but it did. So this morning, I decided to look at all the games last season and see how many fights there were and whether or not there was any connection between it and winning.
To do this, I went to NHL.com and check out the basic recaps for each game. Each recap has a list of penalties, so finding fighting majors and the score (of course) was fairly simple. Just as important as the number of fights there were, when they time they took place. I don't like fighting and I really wouldn't miss it if it were eliminated from professional hockey. That said, there is a train of thought that a fight would "wake a team up" so to speak. It does get the home fans all up in an uproar, I can't deny that. Whether or not it changes the momentum of a game is another question. What you, I, and your favorite auntie cheer or not cheer for is immaterial. The goal of a hockey game is to win, and that will be the focus of this then.
So in addition to counting the number of fights and seeing whether the Devils won, I subjectively decided whether that fight made a difference in the game. I would like to emphasize the word difference here. If the lead changes or a team ties it up after a fight in the same period, I would recognize the fight could have had an affect on the team's performance. Were the Devils losing, a fight takes place, and the Devils remain losing - I don't think the fight changed much of the game's course. I limited it to being within the same period only because an intermission has additional variables come into play when it comes to a team's performance - a leader making a speech, the coach giving the team what's for, and so forth. A fight in the first period, I think, isn't likely to be a catalyst or part of one when the Devils score twice in the third period to win the game. Also, it's not to say, "Well, David Clarkson threw down and the Devils scored 2 goals afterwards; the fight was totally responsible." I'm saying it could have. It's a subjective argument, but I felt it could provide an interesting insight. I understand it's flawed because a game could change in momentum but not yield any goals; however, there's no clearer way of showing that team "turned it around" or "turned it up" other than lighting the lamp.
I also split the difference between all fights and "in-game" fights. I'm defining a fight to be in-game is if it took place within the normal course of a game. Some fights/scrums/etc. take place at the very end of the game when it's all pretty much decided. Fists are thrown out of frustration more than anything else and it ultimately has no affect on the game. So I decided to only really count those in any analysis. Fights at the beginning of the game or in the middle of it would change any momentum on the one place that matters - the scoreboard. At the end of the game, not so much.
Fourthly, I'm only looking at this past season. Before you comment or e-mail me that "How dare I ignore Cam Janssen," I want to point out that the Devils committed 16 more major penalties this past season than in 2006-2007. While not all major penalties are fighting majors, the Devils fought enough times this past season such that it is mathematically impossible for it to be fewer than 2 seasons ago - regardless of "Cammer The Hammer." So much for cries that the team last season lost its "toughness."
Lastly, I'm only counting wins here. Shootout and overtime losses yield points, yes, but they aren't wins. And wins are what's important here. Anyway, there's no need for fancy charts or graphs because the numbers are straight forward:
That said, it's not that drastic of a change in winning percentage for fans to demand a fight every game. Of these 42 "in-game" fights, only 13 of them led to a significant change in the game. The Devils ended up slightly under the 50% winning percentage mark, as only 6 of those changes ultimately led to Devils wins. Therefore, most of the Devils fights do not led to a change in the game and when they do, it's almost a coin flip as to whether it works out for New Jersey.
Going into this analysis, I was under the impression that A) the Devils didn't fight all that much and B) the fights don't lead to too many wins - too many of them take place after the game's over, the Devils would likely continue sleepwalking through games regardless of the fight, etc. Thought A was quickly proven wrong, a point further justified when you consider New Jersey was in the middle of the league for major penalties. Thought B was refuted by the Devils happenstance to win 19 games out of the 32 where there were fights during the game. Only 2 fights were at the end of games; and there were even a couple that had multiple fights (most per game this season was 3, achieved three times).
However, it doesn't seem that the Devils fighting lead to the Devils playing better and more productive hockey from this past season. They are mostly just fights that happen in the game. This makes sense, otherwise, we'd see teams all over the league bend over backwards to keep enforcers, tough guys, and goons along for long contracts. In short, I don't think the Devils - or its fans - should be looking for fights to play better hockey - it likely will not happen. Considering most of the fights are by one David Clarkson, a young talented winger, I still think it's best if he's on the ice on shifts that would take place when he's not in the box for 5 minutes.
I also split the difference between all fights and "in-game" fights. I'm defining a fight to be in-game is if it took place within the normal course of a game. Some fights/scrums/etc. take place at the very end of the game when it's all pretty much decided. Fists are thrown out of frustration more than anything else and it ultimately has no affect on the game. So I decided to only really count those in any analysis. Fights at the beginning of the game or in the middle of it would change any momentum on the one place that matters - the scoreboard. At the end of the game, not so much.
Fourthly, I'm only looking at this past season. Before you comment or e-mail me that "How dare I ignore Cam Janssen," I want to point out that the Devils committed 16 more major penalties this past season than in 2006-2007. While not all major penalties are fighting majors, the Devils fought enough times this past season such that it is mathematically impossible for it to be fewer than 2 seasons ago - regardless of "Cammer The Hammer." So much for cries that the team last season lost its "toughness."
Lastly, I'm only counting wins here. Shootout and overtime losses yield points, yes, but they aren't wins. And wins are what's important here. Anyway, there's no need for fancy charts or graphs because the numbers are straight forward:
- Number of Devils fights: 45
- Number of games with a Devil fighting "in-game": 32 (34 including the end-game fights)
- Number of Devils fights "in-game": 42
- Number of fights that changed the course of the score: 13
- Devils record when they don't fight: 26-22 (Winning Percentage: 54.16667%)
- Devils record when they fight "in-game": 19-13 (Winning Percentage: 59.375%)
- Devils record when they fight but not "in-game": 1-1 (Winning Percentage: 50%)
- Devils record when the fight changed the course of the score: 6-7 (Winning Percentage: 46.1538%)
That said, it's not that drastic of a change in winning percentage for fans to demand a fight every game. Of these 42 "in-game" fights, only 13 of them led to a significant change in the game. The Devils ended up slightly under the 50% winning percentage mark, as only 6 of those changes ultimately led to Devils wins. Therefore, most of the Devils fights do not led to a change in the game and when they do, it's almost a coin flip as to whether it works out for New Jersey.
Going into this analysis, I was under the impression that A) the Devils didn't fight all that much and B) the fights don't lead to too many wins - too many of them take place after the game's over, the Devils would likely continue sleepwalking through games regardless of the fight, etc. Thought A was quickly proven wrong, a point further justified when you consider New Jersey was in the middle of the league for major penalties. Thought B was refuted by the Devils happenstance to win 19 games out of the 32 where there were fights during the game. Only 2 fights were at the end of games; and there were even a couple that had multiple fights (most per game this season was 3, achieved three times).
However, it doesn't seem that the Devils fighting lead to the Devils playing better and more productive hockey from this past season. They are mostly just fights that happen in the game. This makes sense, otherwise, we'd see teams all over the league bend over backwards to keep enforcers, tough guys, and goons along for long contracts. In short, I don't think the Devils - or its fans - should be looking for fights to play better hockey - it likely will not happen. Considering most of the fights are by one David Clarkson, a young talented winger, I still think it's best if he's on the ice on shifts that would take place when he's not in the box for 5 minutes.
Labels: 2008 Offseason, 2008 Season, Devils Analysis, Devils Issues
# posted by John Fischer @ 2:31 PM 3 comments
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Brodeur Wins (Yet Another) Vezina
Well, well, well. I hear that Martin Brodeur guy is pretty good. One would almost want to use the term...legendary.
At tonight's NHL Awards show, Brodeur won his fourth Vezina trophy - his second consecutive trophy. A list of all the winners can be found at NHL.com. The big winners were Alexander Ovechkin taking home the Hart and Pearson, Nicklas Lidstrom winning his sixth Norris Trophy, Pavel Datsyuk winning both the Lady Byng and Selke (John Madden finished second) trophies, Bruce Boudreau winning the Jack Adams, and Patrick Kane winning the Calder. All deserving winners and equally deserving was Gordie Howe earning the league's first lifetime achievement award. No prize goes to the producers for getting a really un-entertaining host to run this.
According to TSN.ca, the Vezina trophy voting was very close between Brodeur and Evgeni Nabokov, who did the ridiculous and picked up Brodeur-ian numbers in as many games as Brodeur. Here is the key section:
Brodeur did mention one interesting tidbit during his acceptance speech. Namely, he is hoping the Devils get a better team next season. Yes, he actually said that. Not for nothing, that in of itself isn't news - who doesn't want to better? No one is going to wish their team to be worse next season. However, saying so outloud after receiving an award is a bit surprising. I don't think it's the call out some may think it to be; but it is a message that at least one Devil wants to see some improvements.
There is one thing I didn't understand. Brodeur, oddly enough, was not named to the NHL's first team but rather to the second team. Not that it's a bad honor, it's just proof that the PHWA (who vote for the NHL first and second team) doesn't agree with the general managers (who vote for the Vezina) as to who the top goalie in the NHL was last season. It's still odd, as even noted by journalist James Mirtle. The voting for this and more is revealed at Gulitti's Fire & Ice.
According to TSN.ca, the Vezina trophy voting was very close between Brodeur and Evgeni Nabokov, who did the ridiculous and picked up Brodeur-ian numbers in as many games as Brodeur. Here is the key section:
Brodeur, who some argue is the best goaltender to ever play in the NHL, garnered 113 points, while San Jose's Evgeni Nabokov totaled 106 points and Rangers netminder Henrik Lundqvist had 13 points.Lauding Brodeur as one of the best and highlighting a Ranger's failure in one sentence? Niiiiice. That does not get old.
Brodeur did mention one interesting tidbit during his acceptance speech. Namely, he is hoping the Devils get a better team next season. Yes, he actually said that. Not for nothing, that in of itself isn't news - who doesn't want to better? No one is going to wish their team to be worse next season. However, saying so outloud after receiving an award is a bit surprising. I don't think it's the call out some may think it to be; but it is a message that at least one Devil wants to see some improvements.
There is one thing I didn't understand. Brodeur, oddly enough, was not named to the NHL's first team but rather to the second team. Not that it's a bad honor, it's just proof that the PHWA (who vote for the NHL first and second team) doesn't agree with the general managers (who vote for the Vezina) as to who the top goalie in the NHL was last season. It's still odd, as even noted by journalist James Mirtle. The voting for this and more is revealed at Gulitti's Fire & Ice.
Labels: 2008 Offseason, 2008 Season, Devils Legends, Hockey - General, Media
# posted by John Fischer @ 11:04 PM 1 comments
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
NHL Awards Show Tomorrow
No, really. It'll be on Versus and CBC Sports. It completely sneaked up on me, too. Best of luck to Martin Brodeur and John Madden, who are up for the Vezina and Selke Trophies, respectively. Links from NHL.com.
In the world of hockey, the Los Angeles Kings have fired Marc Crawford according to TSN. It's easy to say that he was fired because he didn't turn around the Kings from their status of Western Conference doormats. It's also true to a point, though he did only have two seasons to work with the team. Anyway, hopefully the general manager and his scouting team has a plan for their sixteen picks in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft. For a Kings fan's take, check out Rudy Kelly's at Battle of California. Stating that your teams' first poor game in a while at the end of a 10 game losing streak? I'm starting to think that was a clue, of some sort.
Coaching news is everywhere in the league. San Jose is announcing tomorrow Detroit assistant Todd McLellan as their head coach. Mike Babcock gets a well-earned 3 year extension from Detroit. Ex-Sharks head coach Ron Wilson gets to try his hand at salvaging the Toronto Maple Leafs as now he is the new head coach. Funnily enough, the Maple Leafs are looking to stick with their interim general manager, Cliff Fletcher, which I'm sure has all the Leafs fans happy about that. Lastly, Ottawa is still looking for a head coach. All of this news is from TSN.
In player news, Vancouver Canucks legend Trevor Linden has retired from hockey (link goes to announcement on the official Canucks site). James Mirtle has a bit on his legacy. Surprisingly, I found out that the NHL and NHLPA met on goaltender equipment issues today when reading through TSN. The theme of this report is that we should expect changes soon. The only specific changes are the elimination of extra padding that isn't necessary for protection and a common measurement system will be applied to all goaltenders to regulate padding sizes. These seem like sensible changes and the meeting wasn't devoid of goaltenders - Martin Brodeur, Rick DiPietro and Ryan Miller were all present. This won't affect some goaltenders like Brodeur, who never had to rely on that extra padding. It should affect others notorious for this sort of behavior, such as Jean-Sebastian Giguere. I'm a bit skeptical to be honest, having heard all throughout the late 1990s that obstruction would be eliminated - and it took until after the second lockout to come close to enforcing that. And even this season some of those little hooks and slashes are returning to the game. My point is that I've heard pronouncements to change the rules before, I want to see it actually happen this time.
Tom Gulitti has announced that the Record has a new forum for Devils fans to talk hockey. The link to the forum is right here and it's brand new. Join up soon to be one of the first of many.
In player news, Vancouver Canucks legend Trevor Linden has retired from hockey (link goes to announcement on the official Canucks site). James Mirtle has a bit on his legacy. Surprisingly, I found out that the NHL and NHLPA met on goaltender equipment issues today when reading through TSN. The theme of this report is that we should expect changes soon. The only specific changes are the elimination of extra padding that isn't necessary for protection and a common measurement system will be applied to all goaltenders to regulate padding sizes. These seem like sensible changes and the meeting wasn't devoid of goaltenders - Martin Brodeur, Rick DiPietro and Ryan Miller were all present. This won't affect some goaltenders like Brodeur, who never had to rely on that extra padding. It should affect others notorious for this sort of behavior, such as Jean-Sebastian Giguere. I'm a bit skeptical to be honest, having heard all throughout the late 1990s that obstruction would be eliminated - and it took until after the second lockout to come close to enforcing that. And even this season some of those little hooks and slashes are returning to the game. My point is that I've heard pronouncements to change the rules before, I want to see it actually happen this time.
Tom Gulitti has announced that the Record has a new forum for Devils fans to talk hockey. The link to the forum is right here and it's brand new. Join up soon to be one of the first of many.
Labels: 2008 Offseason, 2008 Season, Hockey - General, Hockey Issues, Media
# posted by John Fischer @ 8:13 PM 0 comments
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Hitting Analysis of 2007-2008 Part 1
While I can't say I enjoy fighting in hockey, I do enjoy the hitting. The physical part of hockey is a part of what makes hockey so great and just by playing in the NHL, you have to be one tough player. You literally have to battle other people for position, for the puck along the corners, and to even make a statement - all through the medium of body checking. Big hits can change the momentum of a game, or at least provide a cool highlight for the fans of the player who threw the hit. But checking into the boards after a loose puck or those little pushes in front of the net can become important in terms of getting an advantageous position or even puck possession, so they count too.
If you were concerned that the Devils didn't have enough physical players last season; then you were likely pleased with what happened last offseason when the Devils signed Vitaly Vishnevski and Aaron Asham; you probably enjoyed seeing David Clarkson getting a regular spot on the roster; you may have applauded the decision to bring in Bryce Salvador in for the benched Cam Janssen; and you appreciated Brent Sutter's idea for a majority of offensive attacks to consist of dumping-chasing-and-then-battling-along-the-boards for the puck to some degree. Basically, from what we saw on a game to game basis, the Devils were a more physical team due to who they signed and how they played.
Hits are a bit tricky to measure. As it states in Hockey Analysis statistics section, hits are a real time super stat which are often left up to the scorekeeper as to whether something is or is not a hit. Given that every arena has a different scorekeeper, some are more generous and some less generous. Hockey Analysis rectifies this by adjusting the stats. And we should like their adjusted numbers as they show the New Jersey Devils to have a higher total of hits than any other team in the league. I am not making this up. The adjusted numbers at Hockey Analysis state that New Jersey likely truly had 1729 hits.
However, I can't really just leave it at that, as nice and easy it would be to do. While I admit that subjectivity does play a role in counting hits at games, I am going to use those numbers from the scorekeeper for hits anyway. They are what is officially recorded in the boxscores and at NHL.com and I really can't justify any adjustment or metric to be fully accurate - especially involving multiple seasons and players who only played part of the season with New Jersey. Even if I watched 186 games over the last three seasons again and counted it myself, there'd still be questions as to whether the counts are accurate (not to mention that this would take forever). So there we are. We are also going to assume that if you're in the act of hitting somebody, you're being physical. Granted, you can be physical by taking hits - but that could also be done by not being particularly aware of the opposing skaters.
In any case, the first thing I looked at is who had how many hits for the Devils in the past 3 seasons. I chose the last 3 seasons because I'm still able to look at game reports and super stats for individual games as far back as 3 seasons ago to find out how many hits a Devil had before (or after) they became a Devil. Now, I did my best with this, and I know my 2007-2008 and 2006-2007 totals are valid due to Hockey Analysis coming up with the same totals in 2007 and 2008. That said, if you find anything wrong with this, please let me know so I can correct it and adjust my own conclusions. That all said, here comes two carts. First is for the players, second are the totals:
(Note: Those red triangles? Those are for players who didn't play the full season with New Jersey.)
If you were concerned that the Devils didn't have enough physical players last season; then you were likely pleased with what happened last offseason when the Devils signed Vitaly Vishnevski and Aaron Asham; you probably enjoyed seeing David Clarkson getting a regular spot on the roster; you may have applauded the decision to bring in Bryce Salvador in for the benched Cam Janssen; and you appreciated Brent Sutter's idea for a majority of offensive attacks to consist of dumping-chasing-and-then-battling-along-the-boards for the puck to some degree. Basically, from what we saw on a game to game basis, the Devils were a more physical team due to who they signed and how they played.
Hits are a bit tricky to measure. As it states in Hockey Analysis statistics section, hits are a real time super stat which are often left up to the scorekeeper as to whether something is or is not a hit. Given that every arena has a different scorekeeper, some are more generous and some less generous. Hockey Analysis rectifies this by adjusting the stats. And we should like their adjusted numbers as they show the New Jersey Devils to have a higher total of hits than any other team in the league. I am not making this up. The adjusted numbers at Hockey Analysis state that New Jersey likely truly had 1729 hits.
However, I can't really just leave it at that, as nice and easy it would be to do. While I admit that subjectivity does play a role in counting hits at games, I am going to use those numbers from the scorekeeper for hits anyway. They are what is officially recorded in the boxscores and at NHL.com and I really can't justify any adjustment or metric to be fully accurate - especially involving multiple seasons and players who only played part of the season with New Jersey. Even if I watched 186 games over the last three seasons again and counted it myself, there'd still be questions as to whether the counts are accurate (not to mention that this would take forever). So there we are. We are also going to assume that if you're in the act of hitting somebody, you're being physical. Granted, you can be physical by taking hits - but that could also be done by not being particularly aware of the opposing skaters.
In any case, the first thing I looked at is who had how many hits for the Devils in the past 3 seasons. I chose the last 3 seasons because I'm still able to look at game reports and super stats for individual games as far back as 3 seasons ago to find out how many hits a Devil had before (or after) they became a Devil. Now, I did my best with this, and I know my 2007-2008 and 2006-2007 totals are valid due to Hockey Analysis coming up with the same totals in 2007 and 2008. That said, if you find anything wrong with this, please let me know so I can correct it and adjust my own conclusions. That all said, here comes two carts. First is for the players, second are the totals:
(Note: Those red triangles? Those are for players who didn't play the full season with New Jersey.)
Now, these two charts tell us three things right off the bat. The first is that the Devils have had more hits this recent season than in the prior two seasons. This is true both in totals and in hits per player. So if you wished for the 2007-2008 Devils to be a more actively physical team, it came to true. The second is that the Devils have accomplished this with a much smaller roster. That doesn't say so much about the team's physical play, but it says quite a bit about the players the Devils used this past season. They only had 4 players for spot duty, as everyone else played a fair amount of games. In the 2006 and 2007 seasons, the number of players who got a "cup of coffee" with New Jersey was larger. Sutter seemed generally comfortable with who was on the active roster, and injuries didn't rock the team so much to the point where they had to call up players for a significant amount of time.
Anyway, the third thing is shown when you break it down to average number of hits per player. While some players on the team had fewer hits, like Colin White registering 62 fewer hits and Jamie Langenbrunner finding the body 22 fewer times (yes, I know they were out until mid-November, but it's still a big decrease in hits), the new players and the team overall has picked up the checking slack to a new high. While we hoped he produced more points, Brian Gionta did put on 22 more hits than the prior season. Travis Zajac had a season dominated by a sophmore slump except in hits, as he earned 20 more hits. Zach Parise doubled his hit totals from 37 to 76. John Oduya and Patrik Elias had some gains as well. However, those who were already regulars prior in 2007-2008 did see a drop in hits. Those who really put the Devils to new heights in hits who became regulars (free agents, prospects moving up) for the Devils in 2007-2008.
This confirms the physical play of Clarkson and Vishnevski being paramount. They both lead the Devils in hits in first and second, respectively. While Aaron Asham wasn't particularly great, he definitely brought the pain for 82 hits and it surprised me to learn that Dainius Zubrus got 77. Rod Pelley didn't stick for the whole season, but he played enough on the fourth line as a checking center, in both senses of the term. The rest of the new defensemen round out the list.
So these numbers show that the Devils have more hits both in total and in average. Why were these gains made? Well, this third chart shows that the new players have made a significant contribution. They represent just under half of all hits by the Devils, they include the two leaders in hits by the team, and they are largely physical players. With the percentage of hits from each player in this season being more spread out, that would be a result of the new style of play that Brent Sutter had the Devils utilize - with more physical battles along the boards on offense. The numbers in this manner, I think, help confirm what we may of originally thought.
That concludes part 1. Just like with what I did for the Devils' shooting numbers, part 2 of this will look at how often the Devils when they outhit their opponents. From there, I will attempt to determine whether there is a connection between winning and hits. If you have any questions, complaints, or insights, please let me know so I can make these attempts better.
Anyway, the third thing is shown when you break it down to average number of hits per player. While some players on the team had fewer hits, like Colin White registering 62 fewer hits and Jamie Langenbrunner finding the body 22 fewer times (yes, I know they were out until mid-November, but it's still a big decrease in hits), the new players and the team overall has picked up the checking slack to a new high. While we hoped he produced more points, Brian Gionta did put on 22 more hits than the prior season. Travis Zajac had a season dominated by a sophmore slump except in hits, as he earned 20 more hits. Zach Parise doubled his hit totals from 37 to 76. John Oduya and Patrik Elias had some gains as well. However, those who were already regulars prior in 2007-2008 did see a drop in hits. Those who really put the Devils to new heights in hits who became regulars (free agents, prospects moving up) for the Devils in 2007-2008.
This confirms the physical play of Clarkson and Vishnevski being paramount. They both lead the Devils in hits in first and second, respectively. While Aaron Asham wasn't particularly great, he definitely brought the pain for 82 hits and it surprised me to learn that Dainius Zubrus got 77. Rod Pelley didn't stick for the whole season, but he played enough on the fourth line as a checking center, in both senses of the term. The rest of the new defensemen round out the list.
So these numbers show that the Devils have more hits both in total and in average. Why were these gains made? Well, this third chart shows that the new players have made a significant contribution. They represent just under half of all hits by the Devils, they include the two leaders in hits by the team, and they are largely physical players. With the percentage of hits from each player in this season being more spread out, that would be a result of the new style of play that Brent Sutter had the Devils utilize - with more physical battles along the boards on offense. The numbers in this manner, I think, help confirm what we may of originally thought.
That concludes part 1. Just like with what I did for the Devils' shooting numbers, part 2 of this will look at how often the Devils when they outhit their opponents. From there, I will attempt to determine whether there is a connection between winning and hits. If you have any questions, complaints, or insights, please let me know so I can make these attempts better.
Labels: 2008 Season, Devils Analysis, Devils Issues
# posted by John Fischer @ 6:53 PM 0 comments
Monday, May 05, 2008
Devils Accuracy Analysis of 2007-2008
Well, after 82 games and a lot of dithering, I have found some impressive figures involving the Devils and their shooting accuracy. Before I go into this really, really long post on accuracy, I would like to explain what it is that I'm doing, for those who have not read earlier posts on this matter.
As a Devils fan, it's easy to notice that the Devils don't score many goals. there are many possibilities for this. The Devils may not have talented enough players to finish plays. The Devils have horrific luck against goaltenders (somewhat true against backups, bizzarely enough. The system isn't designed to score goals. It's because you didn't wear your lucky underwear during the game. And so on and so forth. I believe that a lot of it has to do with how the Devils shoot. Wayne Gretzky famously said that you miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take. Well, you also don't score on 100% of the shots that don't reach the net.
Therefore, I've been recording the shots on net, missed shots, and blocked shots counts from the Event Summaries of every Devils game from NHL.com. One set by the Devils, and one set by their opponent. There are numerous shortcomings in doing this. First, stats like missed and blocked shots can be quite subjective. A scorekeeper may regard a tipped shot that goes wide as missed, blocked, or neither. I do not know how to adjust for those values outside of guessing, so for the purposes of this analysis, we must assume them to be correct. Second, the blocked shot statistic refers to shots blocked by the opposition. This makes sense. But what of shots that are blocked by their own team? Countless times have we seen a Devils defenseman wind-up for a slapshot only to have the puck hit a Devils' leg or skate and go awry. I have not counted how many times this has happened to New Jersey and nothing by the scorekeeper in the published stats that I have found accounts for this. Therefore, we must, unfortunately and unrealistic as it is, ignore this. Third, I am only comparing the Devils to their opponents. While it would be interesting and enlightening to do this for all 30 teams over the past 3 seasons (including this one) and see where New Jersey ranks among with them; the process of collecting all that data would be an extensive project that I'm not willing to undertake at this juncture. Sorry. Fourth, I am only looking into the regular season - the playoffs are far too short, I think, for any full analysis. Fifth, I am operating on this crucial assumption:
A shot on net, a blocked shot, and a missed shots are all attempts to get the puck on net. The accuracy of these shots is the number of shots on net out of the number of total attempts made to get it on net.
Should a shot be blocked or miss the net, the goal was not reached. For missed shots this makes sense. Yes, opposing players could make a play on their own - or get lucky enough to be in the way - but should a shot be blocked, it likely wasn't a good attempt to begin with. With that all of these assumptions and shortcomings admitted to early, let's get into it. The main answers we are seeking are just how accurate the Devils have been this season in shooting, how this compares with their opponents, and whether or not this means anything.
Let's cut through the suspense. The "too long; didn't read" table is right here and it proves that, yes, accuracy does mean something with respect to this past season.
Therefore, I've been recording the shots on net, missed shots, and blocked shots counts from the Event Summaries of every Devils game from NHL.com. One set by the Devils, and one set by their opponent. There are numerous shortcomings in doing this. First, stats like missed and blocked shots can be quite subjective. A scorekeeper may regard a tipped shot that goes wide as missed, blocked, or neither. I do not know how to adjust for those values outside of guessing, so for the purposes of this analysis, we must assume them to be correct. Second, the blocked shot statistic refers to shots blocked by the opposition. This makes sense. But what of shots that are blocked by their own team? Countless times have we seen a Devils defenseman wind-up for a slapshot only to have the puck hit a Devils' leg or skate and go awry. I have not counted how many times this has happened to New Jersey and nothing by the scorekeeper in the published stats that I have found accounts for this. Therefore, we must, unfortunately and unrealistic as it is, ignore this. Third, I am only comparing the Devils to their opponents. While it would be interesting and enlightening to do this for all 30 teams over the past 3 seasons (including this one) and see where New Jersey ranks among with them; the process of collecting all that data would be an extensive project that I'm not willing to undertake at this juncture. Sorry. Fourth, I am only looking into the regular season - the playoffs are far too short, I think, for any full analysis. Fifth, I am operating on this crucial assumption:
A shot on net, a blocked shot, and a missed shots are all attempts to get the puck on net. The accuracy of these shots is the number of shots on net out of the number of total attempts made to get it on net.
Should a shot be blocked or miss the net, the goal was not reached. For missed shots this makes sense. Yes, opposing players could make a play on their own - or get lucky enough to be in the way - but should a shot be blocked, it likely wasn't a good attempt to begin with. With that all of these assumptions and shortcomings admitted to early, let's get into it. The main answers we are seeking are just how accurate the Devils have been this season in shooting, how this compares with their opponents, and whether or not this means anything.
Let's cut through the suspense. The "too long; didn't read" table is right here and it proves that, yes, accuracy does mean something with respect to this past season.
Right there is some amazing stuff. The Devils only were more accurate than their opponents 30 times this season; but they won 22 of those games! Yes, I'm sure there are some shootout wins in there; but in those 22 times out of the 30, the Devils have at least scored as many or more than the opposition to get the full two points. A remarkable winning percentage of 73.3% when the Devils are more accurate than their opponents. That is proof positive that superior accuracy may have something to do with winning hockey games. However, it is equally shocking that this occurred only a few times in the 2007-2008 season. Yes, the Devils did win 24 games whilst being less accurate; but 22 out of 30 really does suggest that they may have an easier time getting Ws when their rate of shots go on net is better than their opponents. It suggests a better offense - shots hitting the net at a better rate - as well as a better defense, forcing the other team to take bad shots and/or get in front of more of them. Unfortunately, over the whole season, opponents has had the more accurate offense.
With this chart, you will notice a few things. The Devils make many more attempts at shots on net than their opponents; but their opponents make more out of those fewer attempts. The Devils missed the net 121 more times than the opposition. The opposition got 170 more blocks on New Jersey's attacks. While the Devils have gotten more shots on net than their opponents, they aren't as efficient or accurate as their opponents have been over a whole season. This could be due to a number of reasons. With a world-class, legendary goaltender in net for New Jersey, opponents may be more likely to try and take the best shots they can get. Combined with a relatively weaker and more inexperienced defense this season, and opponents could look for those better opportunities to try and beat Martin Brodeur. Likewise, opponents who love to collapse in the slot found many opportunities to throw off shooters - or outright block them - as the New Jersey took many shots from the point and outside of the slot. Based on this chart alone, we can see some areas of improvement for New Jersey. The Devils defenders could certainly do a better job of getting in front of pucks, for starters. The Devils could also learn to stop forcing shots through traffic, which could cut down on their own totals of blocked and missed shots. Let's see how this breaks down on averages:
(Note: all the averages are based on a 82 game season.) The averages, as expected, support the same conclusions shown in the overall numbers. Here, we can see that the standard deviation in blocked and missed shots by both groups (Devils and non-Devils) isn't too far apart. It is further evidence that the Devils miss approximately 1.5 more shots per game than their opponents; and the opposition blocks approximately 2 shots per game than the Devils. Two areas that hurts the Devils attack and leads to more attempts at shooting on net. The standard deviation in shots on net is very close to each other; thus, we can say that the Devils really do average more shots on net than their opponents in spite of variation. Nevertheless, this just confirms what the totals have already shown.
For those who like to see this further broken down, I've split up the numbers between home and road games, and Devils wins and losses.
For those who like to see this further broken down, I've split up the numbers between home and road games, and Devils wins and losses.
Now, this is something. On average, the Devils and the opposition make many more attempts on the road. While the opposition gets more shots on net on average, the Devils actually get slightly fewer shots on net on average. While New Jersey does better than blocking shots and the opposition amazingly misses more shots, the Devils also miss more shots and get blocked more. As a result, the accuracy of both squads drops significantly - 5.48% by New Jersey, 7.28% by everyone else. In other words, both squads would like to play their games at the Prudential Center. The averages show that they are clearly much more accurate, with the opposition shooting an substantial 62.78% on net rate.
This chart confirms what I think most people would expect. The Devils and the opposition are more accurate in wins than they are in losses. Even so, the opposition on net/attempts on net rate is similar to New Jersey even when the Devils do win. Moreover, the opposition still takes fewer attempts on average in both Devils wins and losses; and even takes a fewer attempt on average when they do win. Conversely, the Devils are more free-wheeling in their attempts on average in losses, with an average of 3 extra attempts in losses. Again, the Devils do worse in blocking shots, missing shots, and hitting the net than their opponents in losses. Seems obvious enough. However, the major point is that the Devils are not necessarily more accurate than their opponents in Devils' wins and they are significantly worse in losses.
So what did this entire gigantic 5-chart post yield? Well, it confirms that shooting accuracy by the Devils needs to be improved. Their opponents have been better than them more often than not in that category. The result? 52 games where the Devils were at least even with or worse in shooting accuracy and a winning percentage of roughly 46% in those games. In the other 30, the Devils have a winning percentage of 73.3%. While I wouldn't expect these percentages to carry over and while we can't say that one directly leads to the other, it does matter. Goals only come from shots on net; reducing blocked and missed shots will lead to more opportunities for goals - more shots on net. By improving their accuracy, the Devils could increase scoring. I don't think the Devils organization is happy with only putting in 206 goals in 2007-2008.
Now that we know how poor the Devils shoot in comparison to their opponents, what is the next step? Well, I think there are multiple ways to improve accuracy. In-game decision making and shooting practice could certainly help in putting the puck on net. Getting more talented players who are already good at shooting could help as well. Establishing lines of players who have good chemistry with each other - as opposed to constant lineup changes - could lead to better communication, passing, and shooting from those players. A new assistant coach that can focus on the offense and provide some new ideas could also help. There's a lot of things the Devils can do here. They have all offseason to consider their options and take the right shot. If you have any questions, complaints, corrections, or a comment just to say you read through all this; please, by all means, leave them.
And, no, I'm not sorry for that stupid pun at the end.
So what did this entire gigantic 5-chart post yield? Well, it confirms that shooting accuracy by the Devils needs to be improved. Their opponents have been better than them more often than not in that category. The result? 52 games where the Devils were at least even with or worse in shooting accuracy and a winning percentage of roughly 46% in those games. In the other 30, the Devils have a winning percentage of 73.3%. While I wouldn't expect these percentages to carry over and while we can't say that one directly leads to the other, it does matter. Goals only come from shots on net; reducing blocked and missed shots will lead to more opportunities for goals - more shots on net. By improving their accuracy, the Devils could increase scoring. I don't think the Devils organization is happy with only putting in 206 goals in 2007-2008.
Now that we know how poor the Devils shoot in comparison to their opponents, what is the next step? Well, I think there are multiple ways to improve accuracy. In-game decision making and shooting practice could certainly help in putting the puck on net. Getting more talented players who are already good at shooting could help as well. Establishing lines of players who have good chemistry with each other - as opposed to constant lineup changes - could lead to better communication, passing, and shooting from those players. A new assistant coach that can focus on the offense and provide some new ideas could also help. There's a lot of things the Devils can do here. They have all offseason to consider their options and take the right shot. If you have any questions, complaints, corrections, or a comment just to say you read through all this; please, by all means, leave them.
And, no, I'm not sorry for that stupid pun at the end.
Labels: 2008 Offseason, 2008 Season, Devils Analysis, Devils Issues
# posted by John Fischer @ 7:59 PM 0 comments
Sunday, April 27, 2008
2007-2008 Season in Review
With the New Jersey Devils' season already over, now is as good as time as any to look back on what just happened in the past season. For those who need a refresher, this is how the Devils ended the season when looking at a long list of numbers and stats (all numbers from NHL.com).
- Record: 46-29-7 (2nd in the Atlantic, 4th in the East, 6th in the NHL)
- Home Record: 25-14-2
- Away Record: 21-15-5
- Goals For: 206 (2.42 goals/game average - 27th in the league)
- Shots per Game Average: 28.8/game (tied for 15th in the league)
- Goals Against: 197 (2.35 goals against/game average - 5th in the league)
- Shots Against per Game Average: 27.5/game (tied for 8th in the league)
- Power Play Success Rate: 15.6% (25th in the league)
- Penalty Kill Success Rate: 82.8% (13th in the league)
- Scoring Leader: Zach Parise (32 G, 33 A for 65 pts.)
- Goal Leader: Zach Parise (32 G)
- Assist Leader: Patrik Elias (35 A)
- Number of Devils with More than 20 Goals: 4 (Parise, Gionta, Elias, Madden)
- Clutch Scorer: Patrik Elias (8 game winning goals and 3 overtime goals)
- Minute Leader: Paul Martin (averaged 23:53 of ice time per game)
- Plus/Minus Best: Johnny Oduya (+27); Worst: Vitaly Vishnevski (-12)
- Power Play Goal Scoring Leader: Zach Parise (10 G - team total: 50)
- Shorthanded Goal Scoring Leader: John Madden (3 G - team total: 6)
- Penalty Minute Leader: David Clarkson (183 - team total:
- Hit Machine: David Clarkson (150 - team total: 1471)
- Shot Blocking Leader: Mike Mottau (84)
- Missed Shot Leader: Brian Gionta (104)
- Most Efficient Shooter: Jay Pandolfo (15.4% - 12 goals on 78 shots)
- Giveaway Leader: Patrik Elias (40)
- Takeaway Leader: John Madden (74)
- Best Face-off Man: John Madden (53.7% - Madden took 34.9% of all Devils faceoffs)
- Most Improved Player: Johnny Oduya
- Most in Need of a Better Next Season: Travis Zajac
- Award Finalists: John Madden (Selke) and Martin Brodeur (Vezina)
- Best Goalie the Devils Ever Had and Carried them for Most of those 46 Wins: Martin Brodeur
- Playoff Results: 4-1 series loss to the New York Rangers in Round 1.
The one that stings is the playoffs: losing to Our Hated Rivals, the New York Rangers in the first round. Ultimately, despite the effort, the fact the Devils lost two important players - Brian Rafalski and Scott Gomez, learning a new system of hockey under new head coach Brent Sutter, and going into a brand new home arena in Newark, New Jersey, hockey is still results oriented business. And the Devils did not win the Stanley Cup, they didn't even make beat their rivals with home ice in Round 1. Needless to say, this leaves a horrible taste in the proverbial mouth of the fans such as myself.
That said, one cannot call this season an abject failure - just an inconsistent season. Inconsistency was the theme in October, when the Devils were on the road for much of the month and their effort wasn't even close to 60 minutes on most nights. Inconsistency continued into November, yet the team righted themselves upon the return of Jamie Langenbrunner and Colin White from injury. The Devils then started to rise to the top of the NHL in the next few months. December was very positive for the Devils with a strong record and a return to the top of the Atlantic Division. The poor play returned by the end of January, but ultimately one could see it as a good month as well as a not-so-good month. Though, the honest term to describe it would be - you guessed it - inconsistent. February was another turnaround and the Devils did so well that they re-took the division lead and became leaders in the conference for the first time since 2001. However, March was very disappointing with the Devils crashing out of the division lead, with the "highlight" of a 5 game losing streak. In April, the Devils secured home ice and the fourth seed, which is pretty good for most of the teams in the league. But it meant little as the Devils got out-worked and ultimately fell to the Rangers in Round 1.
All throughout the season, the Devils had trouble scoring at times, trouble playing defense at times, and the only real constant was that Martin Brodeur was the most solid player. And he had to be for most of those 77 games. The team switched to a more physical, dump-and-chase approach to offense; with the Devils implementing a forechecker more often than we saw last season. Given that the Devils finished middle in the pack on shots per game and near the bottom in goals per game, this new system has clearly not helped the Devils finish. Last season, the big concerns were physical play and scoring. Clearly, the biggest concern for the Devils now is scoring. Sure, some nights they can put up a bunch of goals but while you're excited over the result you can't help but think why they can't finish or set up plays on other nights. Zach Parise putting up 32 goals is great; John Madden putting up a career high in goals and points is great; but many others on the team really could have produced more. Even then, Parise and Madden weren't necessarily consistent in their own production. The offense was inconsistent.
While the defense looked poor to start, ultimately the Devils exercised some fairly strong team defense. They got exposed by the end of the season and in the playoffs; yet the crew of White, Martin, Oduya (second NHL season), Rachunek, Vishnevski, Salvador, Mottau (first full NHL season), Brookbank (first full NHL season), and Greene (first full NHL season) were better than the sum of their parts. On most nights, at least. Fortunately, Brodeur remained behind them to help them out in case they get burned - which also occurred on those other nights. Regardless, the word to describe the blueline group of eight-turned-nine is inconsistent.
I guess the bottom line remains: as Martin Brodeur goes, so do the Devils. The goaltender is up for another Vezina trophy, which should clue you in as to how well he did this season. A 2.17 goals against average, a 92% save percentage, 4 shutouts, and a record of 44-27-6. He picked up his 500th career win and is well on his way to becoming the NHL leader in wins. I'm sure the Devils themselves would say he was the most valuable player this season. And in a season that can be best described as inconsistent, the most consistent player would clearly be the most valuable. The only one who could come close to being consistent would be John Madden who did score the most goals since 2000-01 (20) and set a career high in points (43) while being the Devils' top face-off man and shutdown center. Perhaps he'll win the Selke; but again: as Brodeur goes, so do the Devils.
Therefore the Devil of the Season is Martin Brodeur. Unfortunately, despite the record and the success earned in the regular season, the team only proved to be a minor threat in the playoffs. Why? Well, I happen to think it sums up the mostly-good-but-not-quite-good-enough season perfectly:
The 2007-2008 Season: Inconsistency - The Consistent Issue
All throughout the season, the Devils had trouble scoring at times, trouble playing defense at times, and the only real constant was that Martin Brodeur was the most solid player. And he had to be for most of those 77 games. The team switched to a more physical, dump-and-chase approach to offense; with the Devils implementing a forechecker more often than we saw last season. Given that the Devils finished middle in the pack on shots per game and near the bottom in goals per game, this new system has clearly not helped the Devils finish. Last season, the big concerns were physical play and scoring. Clearly, the biggest concern for the Devils now is scoring. Sure, some nights they can put up a bunch of goals but while you're excited over the result you can't help but think why they can't finish or set up plays on other nights. Zach Parise putting up 32 goals is great; John Madden putting up a career high in goals and points is great; but many others on the team really could have produced more. Even then, Parise and Madden weren't necessarily consistent in their own production. The offense was inconsistent.
While the defense looked poor to start, ultimately the Devils exercised some fairly strong team defense. They got exposed by the end of the season and in the playoffs; yet the crew of White, Martin, Oduya (second NHL season), Rachunek, Vishnevski, Salvador, Mottau (first full NHL season), Brookbank (first full NHL season), and Greene (first full NHL season) were better than the sum of their parts. On most nights, at least. Fortunately, Brodeur remained behind them to help them out in case they get burned - which also occurred on those other nights. Regardless, the word to describe the blueline group of eight-turned-nine is inconsistent.
I guess the bottom line remains: as Martin Brodeur goes, so do the Devils. The goaltender is up for another Vezina trophy, which should clue you in as to how well he did this season. A 2.17 goals against average, a 92% save percentage, 4 shutouts, and a record of 44-27-6. He picked up his 500th career win and is well on his way to becoming the NHL leader in wins. I'm sure the Devils themselves would say he was the most valuable player this season. And in a season that can be best described as inconsistent, the most consistent player would clearly be the most valuable. The only one who could come close to being consistent would be John Madden who did score the most goals since 2000-01 (20) and set a career high in points (43) while being the Devils' top face-off man and shutdown center. Perhaps he'll win the Selke; but again: as Brodeur goes, so do the Devils.
Therefore the Devil of the Season is Martin Brodeur. Unfortunately, despite the record and the success earned in the regular season, the team only proved to be a minor threat in the playoffs. Why? Well, I happen to think it sums up the mostly-good-but-not-quite-good-enough season perfectly:
The 2007-2008 Season: Inconsistency - The Consistent Issue
Labels: 2008 Season, Devils Issues, Devils Legends
# posted by John Fischer @ 7:16 PM 2 comments
Sunday, April 20, 2008
April in Review & Devil of the Month
Well, April was a short month for New Jersey. Four games in the regular season, and only five in the playoffs. The month saw a 2-1 overtime win against the Islanders which secured the Devils' eleventh straight playoff appearance, a shootout win over Boston which clinched at least fifth in the conference, a bad loss at Philadelphia, and the first win of the season over Our Hated Rivals to secure home ice in the playoffs. No regulation wins, but it's still 3-1-0 - and that's the official record for the Devils. They didn't look particularly great or dominating; but they did get the job done for the most part save for the Philly game.
Then the playoffs came and home ice meant absolutely nothing. Despite that win on April 6, the Devils fell flat in the third period in Game 1 and were flat for all but the final few minutes in Game 2. In retrospect, it looked like the Devils were already partially in the proverbial grave. Hope came in Game 3 when the Devils won one in overtime on the road. However, mistakes in the defensive zone cost the Devils Game 4 - dearly. Lastly and most frustratingly, they gave up too much too early to allow a comeback that was too little too late in Game 5. The Devils lost to the Rangers, lost all three games at Newark, and they lost to a team who played the style the Devils made famous. It wasn't that Brodeur alone failed - a point that Tom Gulitti plainly states at Fire & Ice - but the entire team failed. The defense was exposed and played like a paper tiger; leaving Marty high and dry more often than not. It took two games before the Devils scored more than just one goal; and even then they got some of those on some really fortunate bounces. The team would take shifts off - twice right after a goal - and the Rangers made them pay the price. No one will look at April 2008 and think, "Ah, they came into the playoffs with a little momentum," this first round exit to Our Hated Rivals will stand out the most. If only because Devils fans will hear it from Rangers fans for the next, say, 40 years.
So, no, it was not a good month for New Jersey.
The ILWT Devil of the Month? Given that so much of the month of April has to do with playoffs, I have to say it was the best Devil in the playoffs. No, not Dainius Zubrus or Mike Rupp - though they were very useful in providing physical play, generating some offense (consider Zubrus against Boston and Rupp against the Rangers on April 6, for example), and bringing some life on the ice when the Devils didn't have much. Their respective fan clubs (Aside: What would Zubrus' and Rupp's fan clubs be called anyway?) should be pleased.
The best Devil in the playoffs was clearly Patrik Elias. He had a point in each of the Devils' five playoff games, 4 goals and 2 assists. More impressively is that three of those four goals came on the power play - impressive considering no one has really stepped up on the Devils' power play units all year long. Even when the rest of the other scoring forwards were floating, Elias was hustling and attacking the Rangers as evidenced by 18 shots on net in the series. The only real criticism you can level at Elias' performance is his poor faceoff winning percentage and his -5 plus-minus rating. While there is nothing to explain the former, the latter has more to do with the defense breaking down more than anything else. The month absolutely sucked for the Devils, yet I have to note Elias' production in the playoffs as a silver lining in a giant, dark cloud. For that, Patrik Elias, you are the ILWT Devil of the Month for the month of April 2008.
So, no, it was not a good month for New Jersey.
The ILWT Devil of the Month? Given that so much of the month of April has to do with playoffs, I have to say it was the best Devil in the playoffs. No, not Dainius Zubrus or Mike Rupp - though they were very useful in providing physical play, generating some offense (consider Zubrus against Boston and Rupp against the Rangers on April 6, for example), and bringing some life on the ice when the Devils didn't have much. Their respective fan clubs (Aside: What would Zubrus' and Rupp's fan clubs be called anyway?) should be pleased.
The best Devil in the playoffs was clearly Patrik Elias. He had a point in each of the Devils' five playoff games, 4 goals and 2 assists. More impressively is that three of those four goals came on the power play - impressive considering no one has really stepped up on the Devils' power play units all year long. Even when the rest of the other scoring forwards were floating, Elias was hustling and attacking the Rangers as evidenced by 18 shots on net in the series. The only real criticism you can level at Elias' performance is his poor faceoff winning percentage and his -5 plus-minus rating. While there is nothing to explain the former, the latter has more to do with the defense breaking down more than anything else. The month absolutely sucked for the Devils, yet I have to note Elias' production in the playoffs as a silver lining in a giant, dark cloud. For that, Patrik Elias, you are the ILWT Devil of the Month for the month of April 2008.
Labels: 2007-08 Devil of the Month, 2008 Season
# posted by John Fischer @ 5:06 PM 3 comments
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Devils 3 - Rangers 2, SO
Today, the Devils earned both home ice in the first round and a win over Our Hated Rivals in the shootout. IPB and 2MA live-blogged the game. Gulitti has the word on when the playoffs will begin. Normally, this is where I discuss and go at length about what I saw, what I liked, what I didn't like, &c. about the game. But today, all I have to say is this:
We can beat you.
We can beat you.
We can beat you.
We can beat you.
We can beat you.
We can beat you.
We can beat you.
Just in time for the playoffs, we have proof that the Devils can beat Our Hated Rivals. That's all I need to say now.
Labels: 2008 Playoffs, 2008 Postgame, 2008 Season, Devils Issues
# posted by John Fischer @ 8:16 PM 0 comments
Thursday, April 03, 2008
One More Thing
Toronto claims there wasn't enough evidence from the replays about Dainius Zubrus' wraparound goal.
Not enough evidence, huh?
(I found this at IPB, who found it at Fire & Ice - originally posted by one "AfroThunder396." Thanks to all of them!)
Not enough evidence, huh?
(I found this at IPB, who found it at Fire & Ice - originally posted by one "AfroThunder396." Thanks to all of them!)
Labels: 2008 Postgame, 2008 Season, Devils Issues, Hockey Issues
# posted by John Fischer @ 10:31 PM 0 comments
What's Shaking in the East
The Devils are going to the playoffs and, according to the splash page for the official site, they'd like you to wear red should you go to the Rock. A capital idea. The Devils wear red on the ice and when the opposition looks up, they should see red in the stands. I am just going to assume that painting your body to spell out DEVILS with your friends is acceptable. That could be more intimdating.
But with the Devils fighting for fourth, let's look at the rest of the East.
But with the Devils fighting for fourth, let's look at the rest of the East.
- With a 3-0 win over the Islanders, Our Hated Rivals have clinched a playoff spot. They sit in fifth and it's entirely likely that the Devils will play them in the first round. To be honest, despite the 7 losses against them this season, I don't think it's a terrible match up. I'll explain myself should that be the match up.
- Fighting for a return to glory, Ottawa dropped a hammer on the Toronto Rang...er..Maple Leafs. For a team that was once at the top of the East for much of the first half, they're fighting Our Hated Rivals to get back into fifth. Since both teams won, the Senators remain in sixth. Too bad Our Hated Rivals have a game in hand, so the Senators will need help to gain fifth.
- The Washington Capitals surged against Tampa Bay 4-1 tonight. Since Philadelphia was idle, they have technically slid into eighth. But they need help to get in to the playoffs. The Devils could certainly do that by beating the Flyers in regulation. That would be grand. The Devils helping to knock the Flyers out of the postseason. Maybe AO can dress up in Devils red for one game? (OK, that would be ridiculous...and wrong, but it'd be cool.)
- It's not possible for the Devils to catch the Penguins, as Pittsburgh did win last night. That's 102 points and the Atlantic Division and a top three seed for them. Good job for them and for doing so with a brand new superstar in Evgeni Malkin.
- Montreal had their game in hand on Pittsburgh and their 3-1 win over Buffalo ties them in points AND knocks the Sabres out. I guess losing Briere, Drury, Miller, and having numerous injuries made all the difference. Montreal has Toronto on Saturday and Pittsburgh has Philadelphia on Sunday. Should both teams win, the Penguins secure the conference with the first tie-breaker: wins.
- Philadelphia gets to "enjoy" the currently #4 Devils and the currently #1 Penguins for their playoff hopes. Poor Flyers! I love it. Does anyone have a tougher pair of games remaining in the East? I think not.
- The one point Boston got last night helps them stick around in the muck between fifth and eighth. Their splash page for their official site says: "GOTTA B HERE." Good to show some confidence that they'll make it. Too bad they got Ottawa next and the now-spoiling Sabres as their last game. That's almost as bad as Philadelphia.
- Carolina still leads the Southeast with 92 points. Washington has their last game against Florida (a should and must win for them). Carolina's last game? Tomorrow against Florida. While I think Washington holds the head to head series lead, some help for them will be nice. Up Capitals! Flyers Out!
- For everyone else? Mirtle has the press release for the 2008 NHL Draft Lottery. Also known as the Steve Stamkos sweepstakes.
Labels: 2008 Playoffs, 2008 Season, Hockey - General
# posted by John Fischer @ 10:00 PM 0 comments
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
March in Review; Devil of the Month
Where February was a great month for the Devils; March was a disappointment to say the least.
One could even argue it's a shock. In this month, the Devils lost twice to the Montreal Canadiens, continue to flounder against the New York Islanders (only one win) and Our Hated Rivals, they were blown out twice and shutout two times, played their worst third period this season, and endured a 5 game winless streak at the end of the month. The streak knocked the Devils' lead - albeit not a very large one - in the Atlantic division and now the team looks to be fighting for fourth in the conference. The Devils compiled a record of 6-6-1 in March, a clear drop off from the big month they had in February.
Again, the worst aspect of the month was the streak of five winless games. Despite putting up at least 3 on Toronto, Minnesota, Colorado, and Philadelphia; offense was at a premium - especially during the streak. In these five games, all against division rivals, the Devils only put up 5 goals and earned one point. Before, the Devils were at the top of the division and the conference. Now, it's clear the Pittsburgh will win the division given their 7 point lead. Short of the Penguins collapsing and the Devils winning all four remaining games, the Devils are on the outside. Home ice is always an advantage in the playoffs; now that's going to be a challenge in of itself without the division title.
So in a poor month from New Jersey, who was the best? Certainly it can't be any one forward. Patrik Elias was OK, if a bit underwhelming, with 2 goals and 5 assists. Zach Parise started off hot with 5 goals in the first four games, but followed that up with only one goal and 3 assists. Do I need to talk about the others? Well, Mike Rupp played very well for about three games in the middle of the month. There was that. No, I'm going in a far different direction. I'm talking about a player who ended up a combined +6 in a month where the Devils conceded a total of 35 goals in regulation and overtime. I'm talking about a player who has averaged approximately 20:13 of ice time per game. I'm talking about someone who leads their position on the team in goals. I'm talking about someone who leads the team in the plus-minus statistic. I'm talking about the defenseman with the lowest goals against per 60 minutes among Devils regulars with 1.43 (source: Behind the Net) this season. I'm talking about someone who has risen to form strong chemistry and play some solid defense with Paul Martin. I'm talking about someone who, back in October, that a lot of people wanted gone and I defended you (to a point). I'm glad I did, I'm glad you turned it around, and I'm still a little amazed that I'm about to type this. John Oduya, you are the ILWT Devil of the Month of March 2008. A consistent defenseman in a month with a shocking lack of consistency.
April is short, but crucial. The Devils sit fourth in the conference with 93 points. Tonight they go to the Island, they host Boston the next night at the Rock, and then Philadelphia and Our Hated Rivals await from April 4 through April 6. Three inter-divisional games, three games against teams on the playoff bubble, and four games that will not be easy. The Devils will almost assuredly make the playoffs, and then the rest of the month will consist of that. How they will do in this last week of the regular season will determine who they will face. It will ultimately determine how likely they will fare in the second season. They are all important and it's Brent Sutter's imperative to prepare his team to fight for every point.
Labels: 2007-08 Devil of the Month, 2008 Season, Devils Issues
# posted by John Fischer @ 5:17 PM 1 comments
Sunday, March 30, 2008
So Who Are These Devils?
The Devils broke a five game winless streak on Friday in a rather utilitarian (read: ugly) manner. Up to and including March 15, the Devils were at the top of the Atlantic Division and trading spots with Montreal for first in the conference. Things were good, the team was confident, and the Devils looked to be contenders once again.
Then they proceeded to only pick up 1 point in the next 5 games. No wins. The Devils were not only falling from the top of the conference, but also from the top of the division. In a little more than a week; the Devils found themselves fighting for seeds #4 through #8. Instead of clinching a playoff berth for the 11th season in a row, they remain a few points short. Although, the recent win pretty much ensures the Devils' spot according to James Mirtle's metric, this was terrible. 2 Man Advantage wasn't happy. IPB wasn't happy. I surely wasn't happy. And even with the win, the Devils recognize that they need to step it up and get wins (source: Star Ledger). Prior to the Flyers game, I got a question from long time reader Tim:
You have to help me, sir. You have to help me understand. How the Devils, at the most crucial time of the year, have lost 5 straight, all to divisional rivals. How they fell from 1st in the Conference to 5th and maybe 6th, and maybe 7th or 8th by the time they are through. How a team that could win 11 straight to win the division just a couple years ago can tank and forget how to score goals. How a team that looked legitimately strong and a legitimate Cup contender will once again maybe get past the first round but no further. What kind of team do we have, sir? What kind of team? I thought a true force, I was sadly mistaken.
To be honest, Tim. I really don't know. Pookie and Schnookie addressed the question of whether the team has been overachieving or underachieving this season in a podcast. According to Gulitti's blog - also before the Flyers game - Sutter likes the team as it is. However, I don't know because I don't think we can't even make this decision as it is. Yes, they dropped 5 games at the worst possible point in the season. But they also rose up to snag first place and held onto it in February and for the first half of March. The last time the Devils had first in the Eastern Conference was back in 2001, so that's a huge accomplishment. Even with the recent spell of bad hockey, the Devils still have a very solid record of 43-28-7 and they are at no reasonable risk of missing the playoffs. The Devils accomplished far too much this season for them to be mere pretenders and artful dodgers.
As shown by the stats at NHL.com; the Devils also have excellent resilience. They have the 5th best record in the league when they give up the first goal (16-21-3); the 6th best record in the league when trailing after the first period (6-13-1); and the second best record in the league when trailing after the second period (7-21-2). When you consider those records, you can't seriously say that they are just playing out of their minds. To me, that shows an ability to not be completely discouraged and fight hard to get something out of those games. Teams that underachieve definitely do this, and you don't get to be near the top in those categories by simply overachieving.
Furthermore, consider who this team is built upon. As alerted to me by alert reader Scott, NHL.com points out that Martin Brodeur has literally been the rock at The Rock. Brodeur has played in an absolutely remarkable percentage of the Devils' games. He certainly does keep the Devils in games where they really shouldn't have been. However, that's not because Marty is playing above his level - he does it by playing at just his level. 40+ win seasons are regular for this guy. Brodeur isn't over or under achieving; he's just achieving. Given that, how can we truly determine is the Devils are over/under-achieving? If we say that the team goes as Marty goes, and Marty is just simply Marty, what then?
Lastly, consider the last few seasons. Yes, scoring is at a premium and has been done by committee for the most part, with the Devils not reaching a total of 250 goals for since 2000-2001. Regardless, the team has been a contender despite this. The best example was the 2002-2003 season. The Devils had their best record in terms of points with 108 points. Yet, the Devils didn't even have anyone finish with more than 60 points (Patrik Elias led with 57); no goal scorers with more than 30 (Elias had 28 goals and too many hit the post); a power play; and the fewest amount of goals scored in team history (206, though this season may break that). They won the Stanley Cup that season. That team is proof that reliable, consistent scoring is not a prerequisite for success (although it helps); as long as the team shows up, works hard, plays smart defense, and scores when necessary. Does that sound a little familiar for this season? I'd say so. Did that team overachieve? I am hesitant to say so considering the team still had 100+ point seasons since then with most of the same core of players. Especially last year's team where despite the inconsistent offense, they set a franchise record for wins.
Basically, to sum up my spiel, there are far too many mitigating circumstances to say the team has overachieved. We've seen this before and we've seen both bad streaks and excellent streaks. While the scoring has been inconsistent, the team has consistently remained in the top 8 since November, and ended December at the top of the division. Ultimately it will fall to how the Devils do in the playoffs to say whether the Devils have been playing above or below their capability. Should they unceremoniously flop out of the first round, I'd say they overachieved. Should they look good and go deep, well, nobody can say they overachieved. Right now, I'm just content with what the team has done and so I cannot answer your question Tim. It's all up to what the team does at this point anyhow.
As shown by the stats at NHL.com; the Devils also have excellent resilience. They have the 5th best record in the league when they give up the first goal (16-21-3); the 6th best record in the league when trailing after the first period (6-13-1); and the second best record in the league when trailing after the second period (7-21-2). When you consider those records, you can't seriously say that they are just playing out of their minds. To me, that shows an ability to not be completely discouraged and fight hard to get something out of those games. Teams that underachieve definitely do this, and you don't get to be near the top in those categories by simply overachieving.
Furthermore, consider who this team is built upon. As alerted to me by alert reader Scott, NHL.com points out that Martin Brodeur has literally been the rock at The Rock. Brodeur has played in an absolutely remarkable percentage of the Devils' games. He certainly does keep the Devils in games where they really shouldn't have been. However, that's not because Marty is playing above his level - he does it by playing at just his level. 40+ win seasons are regular for this guy. Brodeur isn't over or under achieving; he's just achieving. Given that, how can we truly determine is the Devils are over/under-achieving? If we say that the team goes as Marty goes, and Marty is just simply Marty, what then?
Lastly, consider the last few seasons. Yes, scoring is at a premium and has been done by committee for the most part, with the Devils not reaching a total of 250 goals for since 2000-2001. Regardless, the team has been a contender despite this. The best example was the 2002-2003 season. The Devils had their best record in terms of points with 108 points. Yet, the Devils didn't even have anyone finish with more than 60 points (Patrik Elias led with 57); no goal scorers with more than 30 (Elias had 28 goals and too many hit the post); a power play; and the fewest amount of goals scored in team history (206, though this season may break that). They won the Stanley Cup that season. That team is proof that reliable, consistent scoring is not a prerequisite for success (although it helps); as long as the team shows up, works hard, plays smart defense, and scores when necessary. Does that sound a little familiar for this season? I'd say so. Did that team overachieve? I am hesitant to say so considering the team still had 100+ point seasons since then with most of the same core of players. Especially last year's team where despite the inconsistent offense, they set a franchise record for wins.
Basically, to sum up my spiel, there are far too many mitigating circumstances to say the team has overachieved. We've seen this before and we've seen both bad streaks and excellent streaks. While the scoring has been inconsistent, the team has consistently remained in the top 8 since November, and ended December at the top of the division. Ultimately it will fall to how the Devils do in the playoffs to say whether the Devils have been playing above or below their capability. Should they unceremoniously flop out of the first round, I'd say they overachieved. Should they look good and go deep, well, nobody can say they overachieved. Right now, I'm just content with what the team has done and so I cannot answer your question Tim. It's all up to what the team does at this point anyhow.
Labels: 2008 Season, Devils Issues
# posted by John Fischer @ 1:14 PM 1 comments
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Changes? What Are These...Changes?
Tom Gulitti is reporting today at Fire & Ice that the Devils do not plan to change their lineup for Thursday's game against Our Hated Rivals.
I struggle to understand this decision, to be honest. Sheldon Brookbank has been actively bad for the past two games and he was clearly the worst player on the ice in last night's game. Given that Pittsburgh regularly has Hal Gill and Rob Scuderi on defense; that's pretty bad. As an aside, I'm amazed Gill and Scuderi played 20 minutes - they just aren't that good. Regardless, while I don't think it would completely spark the offense, giving Karel Rachunek another chance on the blueline wouldn't be a bad idea. He'd have to try real hard to be unconfident with the puck and slow in getting into position at both ends, as Brookbank has been in recent games. Plus, Rachunek has a better shot - something New Jersey could use.
That said, there's something to be said for keeping the same players and having them work through the adversity. On the other hand, I think it's time to stop using Mike Rupp as a featured forward. Patrik Elias is back, Rupp hasn't been taking it to the net as he has been last week, and so I think his resurgence has plateaued. Still, a nice run from Rupp. Of course, should Rupp break out and have a game such that Pierre McGuire would proclaim him to be a MONSTER, I will gladly eat my words.
Anyway, I digress. That something to be said about keeping the team together has been well said by Josh Burnett at 2 Man Advantage. Josh thinks the best way for the team to get scoring again is for the team to relax. I'm inclined to agree. We've seen the Devils put up 35 shots on the Islanders, 25 more shots in a terrible game, and then 31 more on the Penguins last night. While they are missing and getting blocked in a Dikembe Mutumbo-esque manner, they are getting shots. Clearly, it's getting into their head, they're frustrated, and so scoring becomes even more elusive. The old saying of "gripping your stick too tightly," I fear, is holding true. So Josh's advice is apt in that regard. Should the team not freak out and play with too much self-doubt or play with absolute panic, they could find their way to get back into scoring. And not a moment too soon with Our Hated Rivals tomorrow and Our Favorite Punching Bags on Friday. Oh, how I would love to make a post like this again.
Regardless, I'm happy to say that the team recognizes that they miss the net too many times, as Tom Gulitti informs us:
That said, there's something to be said for keeping the same players and having them work through the adversity. On the other hand, I think it's time to stop using Mike Rupp as a featured forward. Patrik Elias is back, Rupp hasn't been taking it to the net as he has been last week, and so I think his resurgence has plateaued. Still, a nice run from Rupp. Of course, should Rupp break out and have a game such that Pierre McGuire would proclaim him to be a MONSTER, I will gladly eat my words.
Anyway, I digress. That something to be said about keeping the team together has been well said by Josh Burnett at 2 Man Advantage. Josh thinks the best way for the team to get scoring again is for the team to relax. I'm inclined to agree. We've seen the Devils put up 35 shots on the Islanders, 25 more shots in a terrible game, and then 31 more on the Penguins last night. While they are missing and getting blocked in a Dikembe Mutumbo-esque manner, they are getting shots. Clearly, it's getting into their head, they're frustrated, and so scoring becomes even more elusive. The old saying of "gripping your stick too tightly," I fear, is holding true. So Josh's advice is apt in that regard. Should the team not freak out and play with too much self-doubt or play with absolute panic, they could find their way to get back into scoring. And not a moment too soon with Our Hated Rivals tomorrow and Our Favorite Punching Bags on Friday. Oh, how I would love to make a post like this again.
Regardless, I'm happy to say that the team recognizes that they miss the net too many times, as Tom Gulitti informs us:
Unfortunately, in the comments, we learn that the Devils are doing a lot of push-ups. The first step to solving a problem is to recognize it, so at least they got that far.**During one drill in which players curled around a glove to take a shot from between the circles, six of first seven fired wide and had to do pushups. "It tells you they're not hitting the net," Sutter said. "They've been doing that all year. We know we miss the net more than we like. You talk to them about it and yet it's something you have to be better at."
Labels: 2008 Season, Devils Issues
# posted by John Fischer @ 7:46 PM 0 comments
Friday, March 21, 2008
Sergei Brylin in Recent Seasons
Sergei Brylin is a versatile player. Need to fill in a spot on the top two lines? Brylin wouldn't look out of place. Need someone at right wing along with Jay Pandolfo and John Madden? Brylin can and has been there before. Inject the fourth line with a little more skill and two-way play? Brylin has no complaints doing so. Sarge has been with the team since 1995, present for all three Stanley Cups, and is currently the team's "iron man," with 319 straight games.
However, I find reason to believe that the 34 year old forward is becoming less effective than he usually is this season. I mentioned as such in Sunday's post on the Devils' prospects vis a vis Petr Vrana. In a rarity, someone left a comment - someone by the name anonymous wrote the following:
The yellow highlights this season. There are two important conclusions that can be made. First, there's the production. Given that Brylin's role of a versatile forward had him play everywhere among the 12 forwards in the past 7 seasons, getting chemistry with a line and getting into a groove has been an issue. Despite this, Brylin has earned at least 10 goals in each of the past 6 seasons, taken at least 80 shots, and has scored 30 points except in the 2002-2003 season. As far as this season goes, it's possible he can crack double digits in goals if he gets hot right now. However, with 9 games left to play, Brylin is not going to pick up 14 points short of a torrid hot streak transforming into a Scoring Machine™. I don't think he is going to pick up 80 shots. A lot of this is due to his time on the fourth line this season; but given that Sutter has been changing the lines so much - even multiple times within the same game - Brylin has seen time with the scoring forwards this season. Even then, Brylin hasn't been a threat in terms of offense. It's one thing to have a down offensive season, when the puck isn't getting in the net. It's another thing when you're taking a lot less shots and therefore you can't come close to meeting past production levels. For this reason, I think it is valid to say he is becoming less effective in terms of production and of offense.
Now, I understand Brylin has largely been used in a checking role over the last few seasons, including this one. He's being used mainly on the third and fourth lines and he doesn't see too much special teams action. However, that leads me to the second important conclusion. Brylin is seeing a lot less of the ice this season than he has in the past 6. His average ice time this season is down 22.16% and his average shifts per game is down 24.74%. Brylin has played on the bottom two lines plenty of times over the past few seasons, but he's always had at least an average 15 minutes of playing time regardless of where he was slotted. These two charts graphically emphasize this point:
Were Brylin as effective as a checker, he'd be getting more ice time. Yet, he is not. It's not that Brent Sutter has anything against Brylin. Look at Wednesday's game as an example; Brylin got over 15 minutes of ice time along with over 3 and half minutes on the power play. Brylin played fairly well and so he kept getting shifts. However, he has seen fewer shifts this season and less ice time. Even when he was primarily a checking forward in the last two seasons, he had more playing time. That his playing time has been reduced so much this season, it clearly suggests that Brylin is not as useful as he was - including last season. I do not think effective players do not see their average ice time drop 4 minutes compared to the last season. The 2000-2001 season, I'd like to point out, is an interesting one - where Brylin got fewer shifts on average than any season, yet he was incredibly effective with 23 goals and 29 assists. It shows effectiveness (and efficiency) to have not lot of playing time but still be very productive; but it's definitely a display of ineffectiveness if not a lot goes along with reduced minutes and shifts.
What's more is that the Devils have plenty of players who can and has played plenty on the fourth line role: Mike Rupp, Aaron Asham, Rod Pelley, and David Clarkson. The fact that Brylin is willing to play on the fourth line isn't as valuable as it once was. He's not the offensive player he once was, he's not taking nearly as many shots as he once did, and he can't be doing a really great job as a two-way forward otherwise he'd get more shifts and more ice time. It also doesn't favor Brylin when New Jersey can call up anyone from Lowell to play on that fourth line, such as Petr Vrana for example.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not calling for Brylin to leave the team. I do appreciate what he has done for the team and his willingness to take on whatever role he is asked to play. I'm confident that he can still contribute to the team - just not as much as he once did. We must confront the brutal truth that Brylin is not getting any younger, he's not producing like he once was, and he's not getting the ice time and number of shifts he has gotten from the past 6 seasons. Therefore, I think the numbers validates my observation that Brylin's effectiveness is dropping. If you have any further questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to leave a comment.
However, I find reason to believe that the 34 year old forward is becoming less effective than he usually is this season. I mentioned as such in Sunday's post on the Devils' prospects vis a vis Petr Vrana. In a rarity, someone left a comment - someone by the name anonymous wrote the following:
hey man, interesting post. But, what's this about Brylin's effectiveness dropping from month to month? his current salary may be a little high considering the cap, but the guy is a solid NHLer. No one on the Devils can play every forward like this guy, and doesn't complain when he plays 4th line. That's pretty valuable in itself. seems like every year someone out there says he's not effective.This comment stuck with me for the past few days (Aside: And yours could to if you leave one! Seriously!). Not just because anonymous is legion and I don't want to cross him/her/them. I largely based that observation on the fact that I haven't noticed Brylin all that much this season. Was I right in my observation? Let's take a look at Sergei Brylin in recent seasons in a detailed (read: long) post. Just for your knowledge, I'm going as far back as the 2000-2001 season because it gives us a good idea of what Brylin was doing in the prime of his career back when he was 27. Also, it's as far back as I can go at NHL.com. Let's look at the numbers with the following table.
The yellow highlights this season. There are two important conclusions that can be made. First, there's the production. Given that Brylin's role of a versatile forward had him play everywhere among the 12 forwards in the past 7 seasons, getting chemistry with a line and getting into a groove has been an issue. Despite this, Brylin has earned at least 10 goals in each of the past 6 seasons, taken at least 80 shots, and has scored 30 points except in the 2002-2003 season. As far as this season goes, it's possible he can crack double digits in goals if he gets hot right now. However, with 9 games left to play, Brylin is not going to pick up 14 points short of a torrid hot streak transforming into a Scoring Machine™. I don't think he is going to pick up 80 shots. A lot of this is due to his time on the fourth line this season; but given that Sutter has been changing the lines so much - even multiple times within the same game - Brylin has seen time with the scoring forwards this season. Even then, Brylin hasn't been a threat in terms of offense. It's one thing to have a down offensive season, when the puck isn't getting in the net. It's another thing when you're taking a lot less shots and therefore you can't come close to meeting past production levels. For this reason, I think it is valid to say he is becoming less effective in terms of production and of offense.
Now, I understand Brylin has largely been used in a checking role over the last few seasons, including this one. He's being used mainly on the third and fourth lines and he doesn't see too much special teams action. However, that leads me to the second important conclusion. Brylin is seeing a lot less of the ice this season than he has in the past 6. His average ice time this season is down 22.16% and his average shifts per game is down 24.74%. Brylin has played on the bottom two lines plenty of times over the past few seasons, but he's always had at least an average 15 minutes of playing time regardless of where he was slotted. These two charts graphically emphasize this point:
What's more is that the Devils have plenty of players who can and has played plenty on the fourth line role: Mike Rupp, Aaron Asham, Rod Pelley, and David Clarkson. The fact that Brylin is willing to play on the fourth line isn't as valuable as it once was. He's not the offensive player he once was, he's not taking nearly as many shots as he once did, and he can't be doing a really great job as a two-way forward otherwise he'd get more shifts and more ice time. It also doesn't favor Brylin when New Jersey can call up anyone from Lowell to play on that fourth line, such as Petr Vrana for example.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not calling for Brylin to leave the team. I do appreciate what he has done for the team and his willingness to take on whatever role he is asked to play. I'm confident that he can still contribute to the team - just not as much as he once did. We must confront the brutal truth that Brylin is not getting any younger, he's not producing like he once was, and he's not getting the ice time and number of shifts he has gotten from the past 6 seasons. Therefore, I think the numbers validates my observation that Brylin's effectiveness is dropping. If you have any further questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to leave a comment.
Labels: 2008 Season, Devils Issues, Devils Legends
# posted by John Fischer @ 11:07 AM 4 comments
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
No Elias Tomorrow?
In addition to taking that shot to the kneecap, Elias is also battling the flu according to Gulitti. Fantastic. A game against Our Hated Rivals tomorrow and the team's most creative player is still questionable. Time to step it up again for Travis Zajac and Mike Rupp. I know Rupp has taken it to the next level, but will the sophmore center? I think he'll almost have to against Our Hated Rivals tomorrow. It's a rival, it's at the Rock, it's part of a tight division race, and Zajac really needs to get something going to get his game back on track. Otherwise, the Rangers defense will realize they don't have to worry as much about Zajac and even more of their attention on Parise. Hopefully, another game with Parise and Langenbrunner may return the spark that we saw so much of last season between the three players.
Of course, Sutter is the head coach, so don't be surprised if the line changes at least 3 times during the game regardless.
Fortunately, Colin White and Bryce Salvador will be available for tomorrow. Good. White will definitely beef up the defense and Salvador has been useful in the first few games he's been with New Jersey. Our Hated Rivals have had trouble putting in goals this season, so a strong defense will definitely help continue that; and White and Salvador clearly make the Devils' blueline much stronger. Both physically and positionally.
And in a recent move that just happens spite my uninformed opinion, Guilitti is reporting that the Devils signed Tyler Eckford. He will not return to the CCHA for his senior year. However, this is a very good sign - generally, the Devils are very patient with their prospects and will let them develop. They will sign the prospect out of college if they are ready, and coming out a year early is a promising sign. I still think he'll see significant time in Lowell (starting next season) before going down to New Jersey, if only to continue development on a higher level of hockey. Best of luck to Eckford and good luck on those final exams.
Fortunately, Colin White and Bryce Salvador will be available for tomorrow. Good. White will definitely beef up the defense and Salvador has been useful in the first few games he's been with New Jersey. Our Hated Rivals have had trouble putting in goals this season, so a strong defense will definitely help continue that; and White and Salvador clearly make the Devils' blueline much stronger. Both physically and positionally.
And in a recent move that just happens spite my uninformed opinion, Guilitti is reporting that the Devils signed Tyler Eckford. He will not return to the CCHA for his senior year. However, this is a very good sign - generally, the Devils are very patient with their prospects and will let them develop. They will sign the prospect out of college if they are ready, and coming out a year early is a promising sign. I still think he'll see significant time in Lowell (starting next season) before going down to New Jersey, if only to continue development on a higher level of hockey. Best of luck to Eckford and good luck on those final exams.
Labels: 2008 Season, Devils Issues, Devils Prospects
# posted by John Fischer @ 9:19 PM 0 comments
Monday, March 17, 2008
Praise Isn't Just Parise Spelled Wrong
It's absolutely remarkable what the Devils are doing this season. A nearly-brand new defense in front of him that, on paper, isn't much to write home about. An offense that has struggled with inconsistency all season long. Considering that, Rich Chere's column in today's Star Ledger is very poignant. The Devils continue to silence the doubters by still leading the conference, albeit with a thin margin, with 10 games left to play. What's this I see?
"If you looked on paper at our roster and compared it to some other teams in the conference, possibly not," captain Jamie Langenbrunner said. "But I think some guys on this team are underrated as far as putting up numbers."
Okay, so rookie coach Brent Sutter turned out to be the right fit behind the bench, the Devils abandoned their plan to give Brodeur more time off and they got another 30-goal season out of Zach Parise.
But first place in the conference?
"I think other people might've been surprised," center Travis Zajac said. "But us, as a team, aren't. We know what we have here."
Looks to me like a little confidence within their team. And why not? While they aren't in a comfortable position in the standings, the Devils are clearly contenders in the Eastern Conference by virtue of leading a very tight conference, much less a division. This year's group is similar to, say, 1995's and 2003's team in that it doesn't matter that it looks like on paper; they're getting it done on the ice.
Of course, a big a reason for their success from 1994 and forward has been Martin Brodeur. And it's not just Devils fans who notice this. Darren Eliot at Sports Illustrated is giving The Man his due. He works hard, he's not a "character," he doesn't sulk after a bad game, and he makes ridiculous saves on a routine basis - especially this season. Thanks to David Puddy at HF Boards for finding this article. Consider this article before thinking that the Devils aren't getting enough respect in the larger hockey press. Maybe you may think there should be more columnists and journalists saying things like this about Marty, but praise is always better than none at all.
Lastly, on Wednesday, the Devils host Our Hated Rivals. What a way to kick off a division-heavy stretch-run. Let's look back at some Devils domination of a deserving squad (originally found at Devils Due, so says the video description at Youtube. Also, is anyone still there at DD?):
Lastly, on Wednesday, the Devils host Our Hated Rivals. What a way to kick off a division-heavy stretch-run. Let's look back at some Devils domination of a deserving squad (originally found at Devils Due, so says the video description at Youtube. Also, is anyone still there at DD?):
Labels: 2008 Season, Media
# posted by John Fischer @ 8:23 PM 0 comments
Sunday, March 16, 2008
New Devils Prospect Rankings at HF
I know, what a creative title. Jared Ramsden has the new top 20 prospect ranking list at Hockey's Future. As expected, Nicklas Bergfors and Matt Corrente remain at the top; Matt Halischuk breaks into the list thanks to his World Junior Championship experience; and Barry Tallackson bizarrely is still on the list despite being there for nearly 6 years now.
In any case, I'd like to make a fairly uninformed prediction who from this list you will see in New Jersey in the future. If you have any thoughts or opinions about these guys, please let me know. I'm willing to entertain all angles.
Get the Jerseys Ready (Eventually):
In any case, I'd like to make a fairly uninformed prediction who from this list you will see in New Jersey in the future. If you have any thoughts or opinions about these guys, please let me know. I'm willing to entertain all angles.
Get the Jerseys Ready (Eventually):
- Petr Vrana - He's leading Lowell in scoring and his versatility likens him to Sergei Brylin. Given that Brylin's effectiveness is dropping from month to month, I'd expect Vrana to step in to replace him within the next few seasons, if not next season.
- Nicklas Bergfors - Not a lot of production in Lowell; but he did make the team out of training camp and injuries has slowed him down. Still, he's got top 6 forward potential and talent; he'll probably get a longer look next season.
- Rod Pelley - Uh, wait, he's already played 63 games with New Jersey. And he already has a jersey.
- Mark Fraser - I know, with 9 d-men on the roster, why another defenseman? He looked fairly good in a call-up last season and he's a big, physical player. If Salvador doesn't re-sign or if the Devils clear out some of the quasi-regulars (e.g. Sheldon Brookbank), Fraser could step in. If not next season than the year after.
- Nick Palmieri - The Devils are looking to bring him right to Lowell. He did well at camp back in September. But the last prospect the Devils had that was primarily a goal scorer was Pierre Dagenais, so I wouldn't anoint him to be the next goal scoring machine. Regardless, the Devils organization likes him and that's a big positive.
- Matt Corrente - Lou rates character and discipline highly and those are the only real questions one could have about Corrente (e.g. getting suspended in juniors). Other than that, Corrente is solid.
- Kirill Tulupov - I love what I'm reading about Tulupov...except that he needs work on his defensive coverage. If that means he just needs experience and someone to guide him, great. If that means he has a lot of trouble with decision making, it could make the difference between physical NHL defenseman and physical AHL defenseman.
- Alexander Vasyunov - I hear about his talent, but he doesn't get a lot of minutes in Russia. If he can use that same talent while getting significant time in Lowell, then we'll see him at the Rock.
- Matt Hoeffel - Still recovering from injury, the word is that his game is similar to Jay Pandolfo's. That's nice and all; but he's still a project.
- Matt Halischuk - Great skater, great job at the WJCs for Canada, and he appears to have some solid penalty killing attributes. Too bad the Devils have more of their share of checking forwards, otherwise he'd be more of a sure thing.
- Tyler Eckford - He's doing extremely well for Alaska-Fairbanks and it looks like his conversion to defense was successful. I just wonder how high the ceiling is for Eckford? I think he'll be seeing some significant time in Lowell.
- T.J. Miller and Mark Fayne - Two defensemen, Miller is in college and Fayne is in juniors. One is developing into an all-around defenseman, the other is developing into a physical defender. Why are they both long shots? Because the Devils have a ton of depth here; they both need to explode to get some serious consideration.
- Vladamir Zharkov - For someone who can skate real well and have good offensive skills; he got passed over again for the WJCs and like Vasyunov, he doesn't get a lot of time in Russia. At least Alexander was named to the roster.
- Jeff Frazee - Wow. From USA starter at the WJCs to now becoming the backup at Minnesota. Harsh. Guess the Devils will continue to search for that goalie of the future that they won't need until 2011 or so.
- Tony Romano - Talk about poor seasons. I know injuries were a factor; but he needs to have an excellent season in 2008-09 to continue being considered as a potential player.
- Nathan Perkovich - Another big forward prospect. He's done very well at Lake Superior State; but he's still a project more than anything else.
Labels: 2008 Season, Devils Prospects
# posted by John Fischer @ 1:39 PM 2 comments
