Monday, October 06, 2008

 

A Last Set of Previews

OK, with the season starting on Friday against the Islanders, it's about time I wrap up my little experiment of reviewing Devils previews. I'll try to summarize them all in a nice little table tomorrow. If you have any idea of more previews that I haven't covered - now is the time to bring them up. Otherwise, this set will be the last.

First off is a quick summary of The Hockey News' preview in their yearbook. I finally found a copy of it on a news stand in NY Penn Station and read through the Devils' section. I didn't purchase it because, well, I was only interested in what was written on two pages. So if I get something wrong, let me know and I'll correct it. I believe it was written by Rich Chere and I got the impression that everything didn't seem so bad in the preview. The offense was poor last year, but it should be better with the addition of Rolston and the hopes that the underachieving forwards will, well, achieve more. The weakness was a defense that wasn't spectacular, which is a bit odd considering they've done well in limiting shots against the Devils (27.5 shots against per game, 8th best in the league) and how rookies would take time acclimate themselves to the NHL (no big worry as the roster is loaded with veterans). You get the impression that the Devils could be solid enough. Then you read the final ranking and predicition: B- and 7th in the East. I guess it means the Devils will be good but not quite good enough in a competitive conference? I'm not sure? I get the feeling this was written way in advance of preseason and I'm sure a more recent preview would yield different results. I guess it's not all that positive ultimately.

On the other spectrum of positive is James Mirtle, who thinks the Devils could finish first in the conference. I don't know if I'd go that far, but he makes a concise and decent case. The Eastern Conference is volitile as a whole and it could be anybody's game (except you, Islanders) if events turn out favorably in various ways. The Devils did lead the conference at one point last season, they didn't change much except for adding a proven scorer (Rolston) which can only benefit the team, and the team did do really well once they got The Rock, Jamie Langenbrunner, and Colin White all in tow. Definitely positive, but again, I have my doubts as to the team finishing first overall. If the offense really does become more potent and productive, then sure, why not? Otherwise, I can see the team winning a lot but not enough to take that top spot if only because of the other teams who are better overall than New Jersey.

At ESPN, we see that Pierre LeBrun has written a team preview. You know, the same Lebrun who didn't think the Devils will make the playoffs. In his summation of the team, he writes: "Every season, the pundits predict the Devils will finally fold, only to be proven wrong." Wow. The irony. It's so real. Anyway, LeBrun really doesn't get much wrong here and doesn't repeat his playoff-less prediction. In fact, I don't see a prediction. The Devils need better results from Patrik Elias, Brian Gionta, and Langenbrunner, which is true. Tere's no reason to be surprised that the Devils as a top defensive team without a stud defender given how the unit did last season along with their excellent checking forwards, which is bolstered by Bobby Holik; which is true. What is nice are the features of their predicted Top Five - which is nearly right, but Bryce Salvador will likely start with Paul Martin and not White, as well as a blurb from Jay Feaster. However, what is annoying is that in three areas on the preview - LeBrun's section, Feaster's blurb, and a side text as their "key question" - they all discuss whether Martin Brodeur can play 70 or more games this season at such a high level. I'm sick of reading this in nearly every preview and I will have more to say on it on Thursday. But what really gets me is that they all come to the same conclusion. - that Marty's the man and sure, he can do it. Did they really need to highlight it in three areas? Especially with other potential questions they could ask, such as how might Brent Sutter approach this season now that he has four full lines of players? It's not bad and it's got some nice angles, I just wish there was more and an actual conclusion of the preview. Does LeBrun think New Jersey will make the playoffs or does his earlier opinion stand?

Lastly, we have the NHL FanHouse. First, let's look at those predictions - in which the whole panel at the FanHouse gives their thought as to who will win the division, the conference, and even the individual player trophies. Overall, it's not bad for the Devils even if the voting is off. Two of the six think the Devils could win the division, whereas others aren't as high - having them sit third in the division. Ahead of the Rangers, mind you. For the conference, the consensus sticks them in fourth, just outside of the division spots. I guess some of those other four people like New Jersey in second in the division if not at first. Lastly, two of them likes Brodeur winning his fifth Vezina trophy - which is very possible given that it is Martin Brodeur.

Now onto the team preview, which was written by Kevin Schultz. The big theme of his preview is that the Devils really haven't changed all that much and that could be an issue considering that they won't surprise anyone. And really, did they need to change all that much outside of signing Holik and Rolston? It's a great point, and absolutely true, that the Devils need to do better within inter-division games and he has the numbers to back it up. And at least he apologizes before mentioning that Marty is getting old yet he remains dominant. Still, he doesn't mince words in his prediction, stating that this team could win the division or even the conference - especially if a big team (Montreal? Philadelphia? Pittsburgh?) falters. I'd say that's positive, yet a bit more realistic than outright saying they could finish first in the conference.

Again, I plan on summarizing all of these tomorrow into a table or table-like format just to see what the general sentiment regarding this team prior to the start of the season. I must say, it seems that a lot of the previews agree with each other but not on what the final outcome could be.

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Saturday, September 27, 2008

 

More of those Devils Previews

With a season rapidly approaching, we got more season previews and we're going to see how some of them see the Devils for 2008-2009. Last time, I took a look at three preview magazines - all of which did not think very highly of the Devils. Today, let's look at some more from Devils fans, Devils fans who have to be more impartial, and from people who are not Devils fans but write about hockey all the same.

First, from anonymous in the comments from the last post, we have this Devils preview that's in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer of all places. Yes. It's called the Intelligencer. Anyway, it appears to be a syndicated article from "Sports Network" by Dan Di Sciullo. Di Sciullo's preview is pretty detailed and breaks down the team in each position while having an overall prediction in the end - a good format for a preview as any. He shows an understanding of the Devils organization by stating up front "Detractors will say that those moves show that the Devils are still living in the past, but it's never wise to doubt Lamoriello, after all, he is the man responsible for turning the swamps of Jersey into a frequent home for Lord Stanley." Well said.

Di Sciullo's analysis doesn't tell us much new in the big picture. But he correctly points out that signings of Brian Rolston and Bobby Holik will give the Devils good depth at center. However, he gets some things wrong in the process. Yes, Zach Parise, Brian Gionta, and Dainius Zubrus need to bounce back on the offense, and the signings could help them. But he bizarrely states that the signing of Rolston will free up Madden's role as a defensive center - a role that Madden still did last season and has been since he's been a Devil - and stated that Patrik Elias and Jamie Langenbrunner could play on Madden's line. Jamie, yes, I can see that and would like that. But, save for some bizarre Sutter line-mixing, Elias is not going to the checking line. Also, Travis Zajac is usually a center, but he should bounce back after a poor sophmore season. Regardless, he's got a good handle on the defense - bold idea predicting the 6 who will play - and the goaltending is straight forward. I see no issue with his prediction of the playoffs; but I don't think Brodeur's workload being lessened will mean a longer playoff run. The team will have to perform better and work harder as a whole in the postseason - it's not all on Brodeur. Still, it's a solid preview in a place I didn't expect it. Good job, anonymous.

By the by, anonymous (the same one? a different one? WHO KNOWS?) also points out the Devils got a mention in ESPN's 10 burning questions for the NHL Preseason. That's mention in the singular, as Pierre LeBrun just stated that they finally (aside: what's this 'finally' junk?) won't make the playoffs. It's not an actual preview, but just a thought. Here's my thought: Marc Lebrun will be proven wrong.

Let's go to the next preview, from a big name in the world of hockey blogging - Greg Wyshynski of Puck Daddy. In the past month, they've had a theme of high school yearbooks for their previews for every team in the season. They are detailed, cover all the bases, and are a little entertaining to boot. They even go ahead and note the bloggers and news sources online for each team. Here's his Devils preview which he gets through without being terribly biased.

He interestingly points out Elias as the player to "break out" this season; which makes some sense since he'll be on the same line as Brian Rolston. He's absolutely right in stating that how the offense does will make the difference between an early playoff exit and a run for the Cup; just look at 1995, 2000, 2001, and 2003 for success and the last few years for further, yet sad proof. I am disappointed he dragged out the same tired trope of the Devils not being excited in his coaching section - if you don't find the Devils exciting and state that more goals equals more filled seats, how come some teams who also play the same kind of defensive hockey and rely on a transition offense get those sellouts, like say, some group of blueshirted chumps across a river from Newark? Seriously. I am also questioning why he doesn't think Zubrus won't be better this season. Most of last season featured Zubrus working to get down low, doing all the little things right, do well enough along the boards, but he was unfortunate that he didn't have consistent linemates (but who did?) and that when he got a scoring chance, a defender/goaltender just got a piece of it at the last minute. Now that he's had a full season under Sutter, I think he'll blossom with a given role. Anyway, Greg thinks the Devils will make the playoffs and the only thing that could screw it all up is the only thing that could screw up New Jersey since 1997. It's a good read, like the other previews on the site, and it's not your standard, by-the-numbers preview. And I'm not just saying that because he mentions this blog.

Let's not talk about this recent preview Greg did with The Pensblog, something he doesn't sound particuarly proud of at Puck Daddy. I don't blame him, but not because of it's content. It's because it just plain sucks if only for further fueling the baseless criticism that the Devils are "boring."

So let's look at IPB. They've done something different for their preview, giving individual thoughts for each individual player and pointing out how they are trending. It's a good idea as it sticks out from the other previews. Some of them make sense, like their rationale for Zubrus and the utter confusion surrounding where Andy Greene's career is going (I couldn't tell you, to be honest, he's a firm tweener unless he shows more at this point). Others are a bit of a head scratcher. I agree that Travis Zajac should have a bounce back year, and Gionta in a contract year should provide a better year than expected, and the rest of the forwards should generally do better; but how can those statements be claimed after saying Elias is trending down? Why can't he bounce back as well when he had the same inconsistencies as everyone else, Ookies? Also, I get it, you don't care for Bobby Holik, but he's not going to Lowell - like getting cut in a knife fight, just expect it and accept it. Anyway, it's a good read, but it doesn't go far to say what they think the team will do. Given the general attitude of how they write about the Devils, I'm going to guess they'll be very pessimistic unless the Devils put together some amazing results. Still, it's a different take from other previews and you should read it for that. McKeen's is the only other one where they had something for every player, but that's fantasy-hockey related anyway. Incidentally, IPB did an even more, uh, different take on the team's trend a few days later. It's...a thing. And I have no comment on it.

IPB's Pookie also put together (or at least posted, maybe it was a collaborative work?) a short preview of the teams at ModFan. Literally short, just ten words at most for each team. A nitpick for the Devils, Pookie, Rolston and Holik were also on the 1995 team.

Fourthly, assuming that is a word, I found this through IPB as well, someone by the name of Pam did this preview at Melt Your Face-off. I know it's in the sidebar, but I don't follow the site; but it appears to be an opinion-based Deadspin-esque hockey blog by Deadspin commenters. Anyway, the preview isn't really much of one as 80% of it is about the horrible toss to the Rangers (true) and the saga of Bobby Holik leaving the team in 2000 to sign with the Rangers and how he wasn't fully missed due to John Madden. Needless to say, Pam isn't plussed with the signings. Anyway, the conclusion is an actual preview - rather a repeat of her short prediction last year - and Pam, who both hates and loves the Devils (in a word, what?) believes history will repeat itself. While I agree the team should be competitive, she doesn't offer much in as a reason as to why. Maybe her point is that not much has changed; but I don't see how signing a top six forward and a veteran center for the fourth line could not lead to any change?

Anyway, in the last seven previews I've read and discussed for far too long for little gain, six of them either have a pessimistic tone with the team or a pressimistic prediction. Originally, my point of doing all this was to get a handle of the general sentiment of what others think of this team. Almost all think the playoffs will happen for New Jersey, but few, if any, are confident in how they'll do. It's not that it's all baseless pessimism, most of it is reasoned out and based on actual results last season. I get that and understand it. Considering some of this pessimism comes from Devils fans, we just can't say "everyone else just doesn't respect New Jersey." The flipside to being a strong franchise is that expectations are high, and for some, the Devils just aren't meeting them by doing well in a tough division in a tighter-than-ever NHL. I don't know, maybe I'm missing something to all of this.

As usual, if you've gotten this far, thanks! And if you know of anymore Devils previews, let me know with a comment or an e-mail. Incidentally, I wrote a short one for another blog that should be up soon; but I don't think I'm in any place to critique or complain about my own work outside that it's likely too dang long.

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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

 

This. This is a Thing.

I found this on HFBoards. According to The Insider on Pittsburgh Sports, Devils legend Claude Lemieux is looking to return to the NHL at age 43. He's skating with the Phoenix Coyotes and seemingly wants to show the NHL that he still has enough in the gas tank.

In case this doesn't work, I have a modest proposal. I think the Devils should approach him with a role as a special assignment coach.

His assignment? Teach David Clarkson everything that he knows.

If he says no, maybe the Devils can find wherever Esa Tikkanen currently is (Korea? Finland? Luxemborg? Walla Walla?) and approach him for a similar role.

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Friday, September 12, 2008

 

The Rod Pelley Nightmare is OVER

We can all relax now, Tom Gulitti has reported that Rod Pelley has signed a 2 year, $1.1 million deal with the Devils. If you like official announcements without much information, the Devils main site announces that Pelley has signed. Gulitti gives no indication that it's a two-way deal; so that's $550,000 cap hit. NHL's Cap has the Devils with approximately $3.1 million in salary cap space before the deal; so I think this signing it likely guarantees that if the New Jersey Devils will sign someone, it won't be for big money. Likely for a two-way player, if anyone. Anyway, I got two questions about this?

First off, it really needed to take this long to sign Pelley? Pelley made $522,000 last season. Per Gulitti's details, he's getting a raise of $3,000 for this season and then he'll get a $50,000 raise after that. Sure, for most of us, that would be huge. But for a NHL player? That's not significant. The negotiations ran long for that small of a raise? I can see the issue of the contract being one-way being a sticking point? But did it need to go all the way to September to agree on terms?

Second, while I have no issue with Pelley on the team; he's proven to be a capable fourth line center in the 58 games he played last season. But he does know that he's got to compete for his spot again in spite of the contract, right? Consider the following: The Devils kept Pelley, signed Bobby Holik, they have Mike Rupp and David Clarkson, signed Fedor Fedorov - who wants to play for New Jersey and not Lowell, and they have (at least) Petr Vrana competing for a spot. I don't know about you, but I see a logjam on that fourth line. Who gets those last set of roster spots depends on what Sutter wants to do and what the new(er) guys do in camp. For that reason alone,

Again, I don't have a problem with Pelley; and I'd almost have to think that Sutter will keep an extra forward on the roster given this logjam of capable fourth liners. And hopefully for Pelley's sake, he'll get one of those sports. Otherwise, I openly wonder why Pelley was signed.

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Tuesday, September 09, 2008

 

Previews: Mike Heika & 2MA?

There's more previews coming out here and for the first one, well, I thought the NHL.com Devils preview was optimistic. I found a better example of optimism through the Devils' board on HFBoards. Compared to the one written by Mike Heika, Dallas Stars reporter at the Dallas Morning News, that wasn't an optimistic preview. Consider the opening to his preview:
OK, I have been given some grief about my East picks, but what I see is a very tight conference where the best teams all got a little bit worse and some of the contenders got a little bit better.

That's how the New Jersey Devils have landed in first place, in my opinion.

While the NHL is changing ever so slowly to a game in which offense can carry a team, the Stars have proven to me that a team that plays good defense will win regular season games. The Stars and Devils are the best examples of that over the years, and I believe the Devils will be better defensively than they were last year. Not because they have a remarkable blue line -- they don't -- but because they have a remarkable team concept on defense, and the best goalie in the league.

Woah! First in the East! He's got a point about how a team can still contend in today's NHL by focusing on their defense and how the Stars and Devils play similar styles. He's absolutely right about the team concept and Martin Brodeur. But first? In the Eastern conference? This season? Wow. I hope he's right, but, wow. That's some kind of confidence there.

Heika notes that the two major signings of the offseason, Brian Rolston and Bobby Holik, will fit in well because they know what they are getting into. They already know what the team philosophy (a.k.a. "The Lou-ade") is and can perform in that capacity. He also states that the defense could be better, but stated that it's good enough especially with - the best goaltender in the league - behind them all. He tended to gloss over the team's offense; but I guess he was implying that Patrik Elias, Zach Parise, and Jamie Langenbrunner will do better with a solid set of centers (Rolston, Travis Zajac, John Madden, Holik).

Ultimately, while it's not completely unlikely, I'm still having some trouble seeing this Devils team finish first in the East. Again, I'd love it were to happen; but I have my doubts. Still, I have to respect the man's opinion - he considers how players buy into a system to be important. Since we're Devils fans who remember the team's rise and three Stanley Cups, it's an incredibly important facet of the game. Besides, how often does someone in the outside media correctly identify what makes the Devils who they are, gives Martin Brodeur a lot of credit, expects the Rangers to fall back, and think this team can be big players in the coming season? For that alone, it's definitely worth your time.

On the more realistic side of previews, and by a Devils fan, we have Joe Betchel of 2 Man Advantage who has written a preview of his own. Yes, 2 Man Advantage has updated! They still exist. In any case, Betchel forms his preview in the form of questions, with his thoughts of what the answers will be. His questions are quite valid. The defense is still a sticking point as the top pairing is Paul Martin and Johnny Oduya and he wonders outloud as to whether Lou will make another move for a defenseman. Just jump in with my own thought, if Lou will make a significant move it will most likely be a trade and probably in January-February 2009. Either way, I agree with Joe that we won't see anything major yet. He's also not confident in the offense. He's confident in Rolston, but his concerns are about the other forwards on the team. These are very valid and for the Devils to succeed, they're going to have to step up their respective games. Interestingly enough, he is confident in Brent Sutter. Given the concerns at defense and at forward, you'd think coaching would play a part in fueling part of those concerns.

He also explicitly asks the question as to whether Marty has anything left. Joe - and the correct answer - says that Marty will remain as Marty.

In any case, Betchel's preview is more of what some (most?) Devils fans could be feeling. On paper, the defense is unimpressive and the coaching staff did a great job in having them play above their expectations. On paper, the offensive talent exists, but the consistency wasn't there (for any forward save for the checkers, but that's with respect to their position) in reality. Yet, the team has Martin Brodeur, a solid concept, and they make do - as difficult as it can be sometimes.

Now, the point I'm trying to make with these season preview summaries is that I'm trying to get a feel for what other people think of the Devils heading into this season. Sometimes, for whatever reason, it may seem that no one respects the Devils or that this is their last year in glory or somesuch. And I'm sure there are some previews and thoughts just like that. But I want to get a handle of a larger community of previews. For all we know, a lot of the previews out there think the Devils may be pretty good this season. Or whether they think the offense will do better or worse. Or something else entirely. I'm interested in what they have to say and would like to compare them at some point.

I'm not trying to pick apart everyone's previews or do the worst snarky commentary possible for what may just amount to a prediction or snidely discount or insult a writer/blogger (though 2MA needs to rise from their grave). That's not my intention. I just want to summarize what the preview states, highlight their points, and just give my thoughts on them. And ultimately, tabulate how the previews differ from each other. So if you know of any Devils previews out there - blog, media, or otherwise - let me know (e-mail is best) so I can get as many as possible.

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Monday, September 08, 2008

 

The "C" is Still Jamie's

According to Rich Chere of the Star Ledger, Jamie Langenbrunner is healthy and will captain the New Jersey Devils in the 2008-2009 season. Brent Sutter even said it himself:

There was speculation that the added burden of wearing the "C" may have hurt the veteran winger.

"I don't think that ever weighed me down," Langenbrunner maintained. "It felt good to be captain."

And he will remain captain this season. Coach Brent Sutter said hasn't considered a change.

"Absolutely not," Sutter said from home in Alberta. "Jamie is our captain moving forward. John (Madden) and Patty (Elias) will be our assistant captains."

Sutter thinks the combination of missing training camp and being named captain made it tough for Langenbrunner last season.

"I think to some degree it was the 'C' on his jersey. It was something new," Sutter said. "Sometimes it takes a little while to adjust to that. I just want Jamie to get back to being Jamie.

"Jamie's going to have a good year this year. It's tough when you miss all of training camp like he did last year."

Langenbrunner kept the "C" all throughout last season, one of the things that was a constant last season. This is important given Sutter's willingness to change things around from forward lines, rotating nine defensmen, and the strategy of the team in various situations. He may still do that this season (and should if it's necessary), but that he will stay consistent with his selection is nothing but good for the team, I think. Naming John Madden and Patrik Elias as assistants are fine as the two have been in leadership roles in the past.

With respect to his performance, Sutter does raise a good point, Langenbrunner has a chance to work off the rust in his game from the offseason in training camp rather than during the season - which should also help Langenbrunner rebound from a dissapointing 07-08 season.

Now, as an aside, I found this out because the Devils' beat writers - mostly Chere, but also Colin Stephenson and others - now have a blog at NJ.com. With no interstitial ads and no constant requests for information, it's just a cleanly laid out blog for news about the Devils. There's no need to worry about going to NJ.com anymore if that's the case throughout the site. There at his blog, you can learn about who was the Devils' charity golf tournament (Langenbrunner seriously hit a 57? Woah.) and learn a little bit about the alumni who was at the event. Nice to see that Grant Marshall doesn't appear to have a chip on his shoulder for ending his career in Lowell.

Meanwhile, at the current king of Devils news blogs, Tom Gulitti has a good piece on Martin Brodeur's Olympic hopes. Yes, Brodeur will be close to 38 in 2010. Yes, the expected pick may be Roberto Luongo. But that doesn't faze Marty. Given that he's still playing at a high level and that he's been the starting goaltender to help Canada win a gold medal back in 2002, he has every right to try and be the #1 goalie if he's picked. I fully support this initiative and while I'll be supporting the United States, I'd love to see Brodeur between the pipes representing Canada in Vancouver.

As an aside, we learn also from Gulitti that the Hockey News doesn't care about back-to-back Vezina-winning seasons. They rate Luongo, Henrik Lundqvist, and Evgeni Nabokov above Brodeur. Not that they aren't good, but I don't see how they can compare when neither of them have ever done for their teams what Marty has done for New Jersey. Especially when none of them have ever been selected as the best goaltender in the league.

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Sunday, September 07, 2008

 

Previews: The NHL.com Version

With training camp starting in mid-September and a number of teams, including the Devils, starting pre-camp workouts, it's the time where season previews are written, published, and read. The NHL's website has a cavalcade of preview coverage - with, as you would as expect, complete previews for each team. So let's take a look at what NHL staff writer Adam Kimelman has to say about the Devils for this season.

Given that the preview is from NHL.com, it's a very optimistic preview. I don't see the league's website being blunt about it and just say that a team is going to be outright bad. But it's definitely worth reading. Consider the New Jersey Devils' preview - Kimelman correctly points out that the offense needed addressing in the offseason because they have been so bad at it. And as a result, he has more written about the forwards than the defense or the goaltending. Essentially, he doesn't expect the defense to be an issue and he points out what milestones Martin Brodeur will likely break this season. Not just the obvious - career wins - but also in games played and possibly in total saves and minutes. There's not much to say about the defense; so let's consider his section on the forwards which is a cause of some skepticism.

Apparently, Kimelman thinks that Brian Rolston will play at center for New Jersey, with Zach Parise and Brian Gionta on his wing, and all three will therefore have great seasons. That would be great and I agree that Rolston will provide a boost to the offense. However, I'm still not sure Rolston should be placed at center. I've expressed this concern back in July; but for all I know, the Devils will make it work. Also, I'm not sure that Brian Gionta will get a big boost by playing with Rolston and Parise. Gionta was shuffled all over the place last season and he seemingly forgot to crash the net like he did in 2005-2006. He wasn't carrying an offensive burden as much as his (and the team's) inconsistency was a burden on offense. Don't get me wrong, I hope Kimelman is right in this regard; I'm just not as hopeful.

He also touches on Patrik Elias, saying that with Rolston at center, he can go back to left wing. In Kimelman's scenario, that's true. However, he'll be on the second line with, I guess, Travis Zajac and Dainius Zubrus? Or Jamie Langenbrunner? He may be more comfortable at left wing, but I don't know whether that will lead to more points. While it'd be amazing, I am further skeptical that Jay Pandolfo and John Madden will repeat their production from last season. It's going to be up to the top six forwards to improve on their production because if New Jersey is looking to Madden and Pandolfo for scoring, the team's offense clearly has problems.

His reasons for optimism at the end of the column are mostly sound. Martin Brodeur will remain being magnificient. Sutter now knows what he has to do and we'll likely see fewer line-up changes, which in turn can allow for more stability and allow chemistry to develop. But Zach Parise hitting 100 or more points? That's a rather bold prediction, Kimelman. Patrik Elias came close in 2000-2001 with 96 and that's from having a monster season while playing the whole season on the storied A Line. To hit triple digits I would think that Parise would have to have a monster season like no other in Devils' history and have the right chemistry with his linemates and stay with the same linemates and stay healthy and hope opposing defenses can't figure him out. Brian Rolston and Parise's development alone won't be enough. I'd love to be proven wrong about this, but I don't think we're going to see that yet.

Kimelman's preview, as I said earlier, is optimistic and the preview itself is worth reading as it's a decent, to-the-point summary of the Devils. The additional articles linked in the preview are also worth your time. However, I think the more optimistic parts should be taken with grains of salt, so to speak. If you're looking for a comprehensive Devils preview, this alone won't do it.

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Saturday, September 06, 2008

 

Unofficial Beginning of Camp

I was sick for a few days, so bear with me for being rather late with this. Tom Gulitti is back with actual substance at Fire & Ice. Apparently, the unofficial beginning of training camp, or "the informal pre-camp workout," began yesterday at the Prudential Center with 18 players arriving to train. 18! And 12 of them are Devils regulars! That's excellent! Three guys stick out from the list that Gulitti that he posted:

1. Tyler Eckford. This doesn't surprise me much, as Eckford wants to start getting to work right away. He didn't show up to the Devils' development camp in July because he was still taking courses at Alaska-Fairbanks, as Gulitti reported. Hopefully his classes went well, U of A-F can use that scholarship for another player, and Eckford starts making progress as he becomes a professional ice hockey player.

2. Fedor Fedorov. He's serious about wanting a position with the New Jersey. He showed up to developmental camp and he's been given a number in this workout (which may mean nothing, Pascal Rheaume got a low number in camp many times). I still think that he'd have to start on the fourth line were he to make the team and that's a shame for Fedorov. Bobby Holik was signed in the offseason and he may end up there; and even then it'd be a fight with Rod Pelley.

3. Rod Pelley. Now, he's not signed yet and he's working out with the team. Gulitti asked Lou about his contract status and he had this to say:

Devils general manager Lou Lamoriello said this afternoon that restricted free agent Rod Pelley remains unsigned, but "there's absolutely no question" he'll be under contract in time for the start of training camp (Physicals for veterans are on Friday, Sept. 19).

"I think it will get done quickly," Lamoriello said of signing Pelley. "We'll get him signed."

A day later, Gulitti raised the question to Pelley:

"Nothing is done yet and camp is approaching and everyone is wondering what is going on, but I feel I'm on track with Lou that things will be done," Pelley said. "I would like to go into camp with a contract. That would be good. But I've just got to see how things go here. It's gone this far, so I have to be a bit more patient and that's fine. too.

"In no circumstance am I holding out. That's not what I'm doing. It's more of both sides needing a bit of time. I would like to have something done before camp, but if both sides need more time, then that's how it's going to go."

Usually, players without contracts don't take part in team activities - especially ones that could result in unfortunate injury. It's great that he isn't holding out and it's clear he wants to be with New Jersey; but I'm absolutely baffled that he's not signed. What would both sides need more time for? For a player who, most likely, will make only (yeah, I know, only) six figures? Could it be that they are discussions over whether he'll be a one-way or two-way player - especially with others (Holik, Fedorov) that could center the fourth line? Could it be incentives? Could it be the shoes? I have no idea. With the official training camp beginning in a few weeks, I suppose we'll hear a resolution to this soon - and hopefully a reason as to why this took so long.

Anyway, Gulitti has also asked Lou about whether the training camp will be open to the public and Lou's answer says "probably not." Well, it's not a straight "no," but it may not be likely given his answer. As far as why the practice rink has seats and a sponsor (the AmeriHealth Pavillion Center!), well the center isn't just for the Devils' practice but it will host hockey clinics, tournaments, and maybe some youth hockey among Newark teams. In a feature about the youth hockey representation at the Rock, co-owner Mike Gilfillan talks in this video (1:44 in) about the Newark Americans and a mite Americans squad and how they'll move to the Pavillion eventually. That probably makes more sense as to why there are seats at least. (ASIDE: I love the fact that the Devils have all of these video clips on their official site, but a way to promote that you even have this or have new videos would be excellent.)

Would an open camp bring in more and new fans to the franchise? Honestly, I don't know. It would make the team more accessible in a way and allow the fans to see more of the prospects and their favorite players up close. On the other hand, the camp likely takes place during the day - which isn't really accessible for most people - and it's mostly going to be drills and practice between those you will see in Newark in October and those you will see in Lowell (or elsewhere). If you're really into the team, I can see this as something you'd like to check out; but maybe not if you just learned that the Devils are a hockey team. As an analogue, I went to a NY Giants training camp session last year with my brother. We both thought it was interesting, but it was mostly standing around watching the players do their thing in practice with other Giants fans. While it was cool to see them upclose and working out (e.g. Jeremy Shockey helped Kevin Boss how to lift a guy on a block), it wasn't particularly exciting and I didn't see it as something that would make somebody become a Giants fan. Also, there were just several hundred spectators for the training camp of a vastly popular NFL team. I don't know if the Devils' camp would gain nearly as much interest from the public. I could be wrong, though; but I just think that while opening training camp to the public would be nice, it may not bring a significant benefit.

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Thursday, August 28, 2008

 

Catalyst

I was reading Puck Daddy tonight and among the many things Greg Wyshynski has typed words about was this interesting ranking of fan bases by Derek Felska at The State of Hockey. (Minnesota) I nearly expected this, but he rates the Devils fanbase rather poorly. Dead last, to be precise. What's particularly interesting about this is that one of the three metrics include fan activity on the Internet about their favorite team. As expect, Felska does not rate the Devils highly in this regard - sorry NJ Devs, Devils Rule, HF Devils, and the blogs (see the side for those).

While Greg at Puck Daddy hit upon many of the other additional issues that Felska may or may not be aware of, I think the root cause of the Devils' woes is that not a lot of people in New Jersey know about them. If you're into hockey, then, sure. You know the score. You're a hockey fan. You know these things. You may even be a fan. But if you don't know hockey, you may think the Devils refer to something other has a hockey team. Bizarrely, I've known people of all ages who have been living in New Jersey their entire lives and they don't know who the Devils are. They don't know about any of the three Stanley Cups. They think Scott Stevens is a guy you know from another town and they don't know what Marty is so great at, much less who he's better than. You may say, "Lou made another awesome move today," and you may be greeted with a response of "Who?"

Basically, it's a problem (and a bit of a shame) that the Devils don't get their name out there more. I don't think being a fan of a team should be like a club where you know how great it is to be a Devils fan but at the expense of others not knowing. Ideally, I'd like everyone to know about the Devils. That itself isn't possible; but I have a couple of ideas in my head - some approaches on how the team could raise their profile. I'm certain a lot of them have issues of their own, but it's at least worth discussing. The whole point of all this isn't so much to raise the team's ranking on Felska's list. But it's a catalyst of sorts. The Devils should not be the best kept secret in sports in New Jersey and the tri-state/metropolitan area. The Devils should not have to take a back seat to the Rangers in the North Jersey and the Flyers in South Jersey. And the only way that will happen is for the franchise to get out there and introduce themselves.

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Tuesday, August 26, 2008

 

HF Has a New List

It's almost time for the Devils Hockey and what further reminder could there be than a new list from Jared Ramsden of Hockey's Future. Yes, he ranks the top 20 prospects in the Devils' system, gives his rationale for where they are, and discusses their potential.

Now, I fully understand and agree with Nicklas Bergfors' and Mattias Tendenby's spots in the rankings - they do have more of an upside than Matthew Corrente as top 6 forwards - the real cause for discussion would be beyond the top 4 prospects. I don't think people doubt that Bergfors, Tendenby, Corrente, and Petr Vrana are at the top; but there are some movements I never would have guessed. Like Tyler Eckford being ranked behind T.J. Miller, Mark Fraser, and the recently drafted Brandon Burlon. Given that Eckford has been mentioned by name by Lou, he's probably ranked higher within the organization. Another example would be the assessment of Alexander Vasyunov's skill. Yes, he has plenty of it, but it really doesn't mean a whole lot if he's not going to be coming to New Jersey in the near future. Ditto Vladamir Zharkov. Also, why was Anssi Salmela on the list to begin with? I understand he's within age (23), but he's already "there" to a point, what with him coming straight from the Finnish league and the Finnish World Championships squad.

That all said, Ramsden has clear and very insightful write ups on each player, so you get an idea as to what he thinks their projection is. Unfortunately, should Ramsden's projections hold true, the Devils seem to have a lot of third-line forwards and depth defensmen in the system. Perhaps that's why Ramsden is still high on Vasyunov. It makes the Tendenby pick much more necessary, what with him being a skilled forward with the capacity for ludicrious speed. Based on how I see it so far, I can see a number of these guys getting at least a game with the team in limited capacity. Namely, Bergfors, Vrana, Corrente, Eckford, and Halischuk.

The real question we're all thinking with respect to these prospects- one that will be answered in training camp - is whether any one of them will make the team in October. Corrente is the popular and most likely choice; but with 7 other defensemen on the roster, even he may not be able to break through right away. That's the blessing and curse with prospects. You like their upside and you want them to play (and play well!) in the pros, but you know that some extra developmental time in a lower league wouldn't be the worst thing - at the same time, wondering how much more time will it take before they break through. And that's assuming they can do that.

One thing's for sure, I expect the Devils to pick up a prospect goaltender sometime in the next 2 seasons. Hopefully, he will go along much better than Jean-Francois Damphousse, Ari Ahonen, and Jeff Frazee - he may be right in line to replace one the best of all time. Hopefully, the Devils will pick the right one instead of just one.

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Monday, August 25, 2008

 

The New Button

There's a brand new, red-bordered button that will be next to the comment link on each post. Yes, you too, can "hype it up." It being the post and where it will be hyped is here: Ballhype. I've noticed this on a number of sports blogs over the last year or so, and now is the time for a small Devils blogger to look askance at the big crowd, say "me too," and jump on in.

In any case, while there isn't much to report, I will say that I got a Ticketmaster update for the first Devils-Rangers contest of the year. OK, it's at Madison Square Garden. OK, it's actually just a preseason game. But it - along with the glorious return of college football (a.k.a. college foobaw) a sign that hockey will soon be upon us. It's only a few more weeks until training camp, everyone.

Tom Gulitti has an update with respect to Vitaly Vishnevski's future - and it's in Russia. Best of luck to Vishnevski. I personally thought he would definitely get a spot on a team in the league; but he wants to be in Russia so he that's where he should go. Interesting that the Devils won't buy out his contract; perhaps they don't need to because he's waived and is already off the cap? I do not know. Still, it was an amicable split and I sincerely hope Vishnevski brings the pain in the newly founded KHL.

The waiving of Vitaly Vishnevski has hit the Devlogosphere (I'm working on the name - and I didn't want to go with the George Clinton inspired Devilsblogginthefunkoutthisweb) hard. Jersey at Imperfect Dynasty uses a bad pun in summarizing the Vishnevski saga. Frank Pyzik at Section 209 is back from vacation and thinks the Capitals could use a guy like Vishnevski. Maybe so, but we won't find out this coming season. Hasan Numbers at Battle of NY takes a look of the current Devils' defense without Vishnevski. He's figuring Matthe Corrente is the next man in line, and he may be right come the end of September. Richard Adranga at Hell on Ice never really rated Vishnevski and thinks there may be more moves to come. With 8 possible defensemen on the roster on opening night, I could see another move being made. 2 Man Advantage just says goodbye to the Russian hit machine. Just to nitpick, Vishnevski wasn't a scratch that often, as he played the fourth most amount of games for the team; but he wasn't a great defenseman by any means.

Fortunately for all of us, we can re-live and re-create the Vishnevski style of play in the upcoming NHL 09. With their new "Be a Pro" trailer (source: Kotaku), you too can be the physical defenseman of your dreams. Or - as seen in the trailer - you can be like Sean Avery; though you can accomplish that by being a gigantic d-bag this side of the Jersey shore. Me? I'm not sure what style I want, but I'm more confident that his name has to be Manic Lehoux.

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Friday, August 22, 2008

 

Vishnevski Waived to Make Room

Woah! Actual Devils news in the dead of August! According to Tom Gulitti, the Devils have placed physical defenseman Vitaly Vishnevski on waivers. Gulitti's post is brief, but he does state that the Devils intend to buy out his contract to clear up his $1.8 million of cap space.

Vishnevski wasn't particularly bad. OK, his production was not existent and you didn't really want to see him in the top 4. But, he was a physical defenseman and he did his job as Vishnevski finished last season with 140 hits, 10 behind leader David Clarkson. Beyond that, that's all you should really expect from him. He's not particularly quick, his positioning isn't anything to write home about, and his main talent is, well, hitting. He fit on the team, playing 69 games for the team, but his spot was always in doubt by the sheer number of third pairing defensemen on the team.

However, with seven other defensemen on the roster, it seemed likely that a move was going to be made. Back in July, I figured Vishnevski would be a player on the trading block. Shows you what I know, he's not going to be traded at all. Just dumped. Should his contract gets bought out, it'll be more likely that Vishnevski will be picked up on waivers. Like I said, he has his role and he does it competently. While it won't be for $2 million/year, one of the other 29 teams will pay him to do just that.

So the Devils would benefit by clearing up some more cap space. Unless there's some regulation involving buyouts (and I'm sure there is - any cap gurus with some knowledge about this, please let me know), the Devils should end up with a little over $3 million in cap space. Not a bad chunk of change, but I don't see the Devils going out and signing another free agent. There really isn't too much value left. But it will come very handy in February for a trade deadline deal, giving the team more flexibility as to who they can pursue.

I still think the other major factor in this decision, other than money, is the roster itself. With Vishnevski, the Devils had 8 defensemen on contract with 2 prospects already named by Lou that the franchise is interested in seeing further. With Vishnevski on the outs, Matt Corrente or Tyler Eckford (or someone else entirely, like Anssi Salmela) will have a much better chance of taking an eighth spot. I also think the Devils aren't done making moves on defense. Depending on who shows up strong in camp, we may see at least one other defensemen being moved - either traded or placed on waivers.

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Monday, August 11, 2008

 

Expectations & Goals

It's the middle of August and a good few weeks from training camp and the eventual preseason. It's slow for the Devils when your biggest stories right now is the umpteenth re-signing of Pascal Rheaume to the organization (Gulitti); and that the practice rink is now the AmeriHealth Pavillion (official site).

Now, let's get the nickname out of our system. No, it's not "The Roll" or "The Rock Jr." It's named after a health care service, so something like "The Lab" or "The Clinic" (hey, that's not bad!) would probably be more appropriate. In fact, I'm going to call it "The Clinic" if only that's where the players will get their performances right from game to game. Dr. Sutter is in.

However, given where the team is now and that now is as any for some pseudo-navel-gazing, I'd like to state what at least I expect out of the Devils first. Now, I'm fully aware that the main goal is to win the Stanley Cup. That makes sense. That's why general managers across the league make moves for promising young talent, sign free agents to big contracts, hire coaches for their systems, and tweak their teams on a season to season basis. That's why coaches review game film of their players, their opponents, their opponents 2 nights from now, and spend many hours figuring out who makes the team, who's in tonight, and what the game plan will be (not to mention what to do in-game). That's why players spend their summers working out, go to voluntary practices or get that extra rest for the game, use all their emotion and heart and lift all them weights. It's not just the Devils; but that's true for the whole league. For every player, everybody in the organization, and for anyone connected to the team either as a casual fan to your season ticket holder for 10+ years to the guy lives in the area and what's to see a winner; they all want to be a part of being champions. Nothing like being immortalized as being the best in all of hockey - even if it is for only one season. And if you've felt it before, you'd want it again.

That all said, I think that's a rather idealistic view. Teams have re-building eras to become someone again or for the first time (e.g. the Islanders, the Kings, the Blue Jackets, and the Panthers), eras where they are just mired and complacent with mediocre or good-enough hockey, and times where they are great one year and terrible the next. For the Devils, we as fans have been very, very fortunate. Blessed, even. New Jersey is not just one of the better teams since 1997, but contenders. A team that has drafted well, signed well, and has been built around stingy defense, a good transition game, and once-in-a-lifetime-bonafide-LEGEND in net. They didn't get this far by looking only at the top. They've done it step-by-step. And I share this view.

The first goal for this team is not necessarily to score 250 or more goals or to continue letting fewer than 200 goals. It's not to have at least three players with 30 or more goals, or 65 or more points. Believe me, all that would be wonderful. But it's all meaningless unless they hit goal #1. That is, simply, make the playoffs. That's not a gimmie as you may think. The league has shown tremendous parity in terms of talent and salary recently, and even "doormat" teams like the Islanders can give the Devils trouble. Like, well, the Islanders who went and beat the Devils 6 times last season. Just as the Devils finished only 4 points out of winning the division, they only finished 7 points ahead of ninth-place Carolina. This means the Devils need to remain fairly consistent and generally well better than average all season long. This means achieving smaller, more short-term goals in the meantime. Winning against your division, winning on the road, winning from behind, etc., etc.

Do I expect the Devils to meet this goal? You bet. And beyond then, you got me. It'll depend on matchups, how the Devils achieved this goal, how the Devils are health-wise and performance-wise in early April, and other variables that'll determine how far they will go in the playoffs. If Marty gets hot and the team follows suit, then look out. If the team has a fantastic first-round followed up by a difficult second-round loss, do we say that this is unacceptable? Sure, we don't want to see the Devils get mauled - especially early in the playoffs, that wouldn't be good - but how high should we raise our expectations? Do we take a hard stance and say "make it to the Eastern Conference Finals or this season sucked?" Or, "No Cup, no good?" Winning the Cup is, of course, the ultimate goal; but is it really that black and white?

I honestly can't agree with that. I mean, if the Devils fall in 7 games in the second round to a deserving team on some bad luck after a lovely season, I can't say the season was an abject failure or utterly pain/sadness inducing. Sure, immediately after the loss it'd feel that way. But not after a few weeks or even looking back on the season a year or more later. I'd like to think other Devils fans would agree to a point.

Of course, if the Devils lose in the first round to Our Hated Rivals, that's different. That's always unacceptable and painful. Likewise, if the Devils sweep them and that's it, then it can't possibly be a bad season.

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Friday, August 08, 2008

 

Quick Fighting Note

Rod left a good suggestion in the comments to my attempt to see if there was any semblance of a correlation between fights and wins.
"It would be interesting to take a closer look at the penalty that comes with the fight (the extra two that one team might get for instigator penalty), as any goal scored during that power play is a direct consequence of the fighting. Moreover, it would be interesting to use this instigator penalty as an indep variable to run a regression to make your point."
Regression analysis! I haven't done those in over a year. I'll definitely have to learn how to do those again.

However, I just went through all the games the Devils had fights in them. The fights break down into two categories: Fights where a player was assessed an extra penalty (e.g. holding, roughing) along with the fighting major and fights where it was just one fighting major for both fighters. While it'll be interesting to look at those extra penalties; I must stress that they aren't the same as instigator penalties. Usually, from what I've seen, those extra minors are for what happened prior to the fight (e.g. a dangerous hit/play leading to a fight).

Amazingly, the Devils have only seen two instigator calls this past season and both went against Dan Boyle on March 7, 2008. Really. Here's the NHL.com recap. Boyle was throwing down with Zach Parise in the third period, and he got the book thrown at him for starting it all (plus a game misconduct to go with it). The Devils did not score on the ensuing power play, but they did win the game in overtime, 2-1. I hope I didn't completely miss something (and if I did, let me know!), but it makes sense to me. The Devils don't go looking for fights - they have been usually mutual to a point. Either way, the sample size doesn't seem to be large enough to do an analysis on instigator calls alone. But I'll try to recall regression analysis for future use. Thanks, Rod!

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Tuesday, August 05, 2008

 

Jamie Langenbrunner: In Recent Seasons

Today, let's take a closer look at the recent history of Jamie Langenbrunner. I've done something similar for Sergei Brylin. I'd like to make this a somewhat regular-sometimes feature for various Devils whenever I think there may be something interesting in there. However, the purpose of this isn't to show that Langenbrunner is starting to run out of steam at age 33 - this will won't show that at all. Actually, the driver for this is a comment in this recent post (aside from the MST3k-style names). In response to a comment, I stated that 20 goals would be far more reasonable for Langenbrunner in terms of expectations. While I said that then, would I be right? (And would such fine readers such as yourselves see that some comments could lead to content sometimes?) And either way, what would be a reasonable set of expectations?

This is always a difficult question for a player like Jamie Langenbrunner when what he brings to the table isn't easily quantified. Or quantified at all. This includes his defensive abilities, his leadership, and his work ethic. You really can't discount his clutchness - something James Mirtle even noted when Jamie returned last season. Fortunately (or not), the question has to do with production and that's always quantifiable. Ultimately, hockey is a results-oriented business so let's look at the last 7 season's of Jamie's production.

This chart of his last 7 seasons' production is particularly interesting. Remember the following: Langenbrunner was traded to the Devils in 2001-02 at the trade deadline that season; and NHL.com's stats section doesn't have time on ice or shifts per game stats before the 2002-03 season anymore.

Langenbrunner's Last Seven

First thing of note: he sets a career high in points in his first full season with the Devils. Seriously, here are his career numbers. While the Devils were generally struggling with scoring that season, Langenbrunner really raised his game for the benefit of the team. He shot more than ever did in his career then, he came one goal short of tying his career high, and showed he deserved the amount of time he was getting. Clearly, the Devils traded Jason Arnott and Randy McKay to get him more than Joe Niuewendyk (17 goals, 28 assists). Langenbrunner followed that great season with a fantastic playoffs. Combine this when you consider his solid defensive work and he truly showed he was a prototypical Devil - hard work, solid defense, and, hey, even some scoring. A much better performance than his previous 2 seasons with Dallas.

Second and related to the first: Not all of these things alone necessarily lead to consistent scoring. His average ice time per game was his second highest in his most productive season; yet it was his second lowest in terms of shifts per game. Also, while Jamie topped this total number of shots taken with a whopping 243 to lead to his most points per season, it was only in his second season of taking that many shots did he break that plateau.

Third: When you take a look at each full season as a Devil, it's clear that outside occurrences has hindered or helped Langenbrunner scoring. His first full season was a breakout year. He had every reason to show to his new team that he can bring a lot to the table and did as such, meshing very quickly and very well with John Madden and Jay Pandolfo. His second season was marred by a nasty knee injury and that led to a lot of inconsistent play. His third season was a rebound year, with a better knee and a year without NHL hockey to get back in the 50-point plateau and earn plenty of minutes in all situations. His fourth season was his best yet in terms of production, even with a drop in playing time, thanks largely to his chemistry and success with Travis Zajac and Zach Parise as linemates. In his fifth season, Langenbrunner started the year hurt and various line combinations - including a return of the PZL Unit (a.k.a. ZZ Pops, Puzzle Line, Pretzel Line, etc.) led to an inconsistent year of production for the new captain. In the good years with New Jersey, Langenbrunner was generally healthy, had some good linemates, and turned his hard work into results. In the bad years with New Jersey, injuries have played a role. With Dallas prior to that, I do not know - sorry.

So what of all this? Overall, considering the injuries, let's take a look at the points per game. Langenbrunner has been up and down a bit, but he averages about .64 points per game in his 5 seasons with New Jersey. Take out the 2003-04 season with the knee injury and Langenbrunner averages at least that much in points per game. Meaning he'll score, but not often enough to be a "go to" guy for scoring - acceptable as a second line scorer. He'll shoot quite a lot (albeit frustratingly inaccurate at time), which something he's really improved on prior to his time with New Jersey, but it's not going to go in as much as we'd all like it to be. He's never been much of a goal scorer in his career as it is. If you see him on the first line, it's either because he's got a good thing going with some players for a couple games, or no one else has taken the role as their own. While we saw that last season, I certainly hope it doesn't continue (see Brian Rolston). Again, we're talking about a player whose best season was only 60 points. That's not first-line caliber.

So in terms of what we've see Jamie's a second-line scorer. Simple enough, right? Not quite. Langenbrunner has always been responsible defensively, and as a result, he receives minutes on the shorthanded situations as well as the man advantages. For example, he had an average of 1:53 per game on the ice on the penalty kill last season. With Rolston and Gionta both on the roster, as well as the darkhorse Dainius Zubrus, Langenbrunner may be pushed out of the second line and be featured on the third line with Madden and Pandolfo. That wouldn't be such a bad thing and we could see whether the J-Line still has some spark from way back when. But with an increased focus on defensive hockey on that third line, Langenbrunner may not get the offensive opportunities that he would on the second line.

Therefore, in terms of expectations, we should be fairly pleased if Langenbrunner picks up about 45 points. He produced 41 in an injury-shortened season under a new coach and some inconsistent play. That shouldn't be asking for too much. 50 and up is definitely possible (and maybe even 20 goals!) if Langenbrunner is in the top 6 for most of the season (and not in a constantly revolving lineup) and he's healthy. That said, I really don't think he's going to get super-hot and drop 60-70 points for New Jersey; nor is he going to tally 25 or more goals. Langenbrunner's not getting any younger and he was never that kind of player to begin with. Fortunately for us, he doesn't need to be - he just needs to keep working hard, keep playing his way, and continue to lead the team.

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Thursday, July 31, 2008

 

Pile On!

2 Man Advantage has a new post - huzzah! - and it's Joe Betchel getting angry over something from a Rangers blog. As it's the offseason, it's generally time to look at what could be happening next season. At Outside the Garden, Michael Ramos had this little preview of the Rangers' Atlantic Division foes. Needless to say, Ramos doesn't think highly, or much at all, of the glorious New Jersey Devils Hockey Club. Normally, I wouldn't be linking to Rangers-based previews; but I'll make an exception. Go ahead and read it. I'll wait by listening to this:




I got to find that CD somewhere. Anyway, where was I? Oh, yes. Ramos' preview. Joe has plenty to rant about; but I'd like to pile on from a different direction. First off, in what universe are the Islanders a better team now than New Jersey? The team is in another rebuilding mode whereas New Jersey remains as a consistently strong team. The last time the Devils didn't finish with 90 points (and less than 55% winning percentage, for that matter) was in 1995-1996 (Proof: HockeyDB) - 12 seasons ago. The only way for the Devils to reach the depths of lower half of the conference is for Martin Brodeur to get injured for much of the season, the core skaters of the team to play absolutely terrible and/or get injured, and Brent Sutter deciding to coach all the time with a blindfold.

Second, it makes sense that Ramos brings up the Greztky quote from the early-to-mid 1980s and some other non-hockey related stories that happened years ago. He is a Rangers fan. Living in the past is what they do. It's their thing.

Third, and I'm being serious here, but if the Devils are really falling behind in the league and the Rangers are so much better off as Ramos postulates in the "NEW NHL" (it's been 3 season already, it ain't new anymore, Mr. Ramos); then I'd like to know where he's coming from. Otherwise, I assume it's from that one village that just so happens to be missing it's idiot. Again, let's look at the team's records. The last time the Rangers finished ahead of the Devils was in 1995-1996. Here are the Rangers' records at HockeyDB - the comparison is clear. Funny how that a team that's supposedly on the way down, with their terrible signings, their coaching changes, and their system is in "shambles," still finishes ahead of the "NEW NHL"-ready Rangers. Will you consider that the Rangers beat the Devils 7 times this past season and they still cannot finish ahead of the Devils? I think you should because that's hilarious.

Keep telling yourself that it makes sense, Mr. Ramos. We'll remind you should history and current trends repeat.

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Monday, July 28, 2008

 

Elsewhere

On this edition of The IPB Hour (Not Actually An Hour), Pookie and Schnookie discuss the logjam of (the poor prospects!) and consider what lines would Brent Sutter start with. They ultimately conclude it may be pointless as the lines will undoubtedly change within the first period and then there's this deer. I don't recall whether they tried to trade Brian Gionta for the deer.

As a nice, if not old, related post - new-ish Devils blog Section 209 actually has a detailed write up of what the starting lineup will look like. Frank Pyzik's reasoning should be read. I do disagree with some of the decisions. While a Zubrus-Holik-Rupp line would be interesting (and big!), Zubrus is too skilled to be playing on the fourth line. Ultimately, I think we'll see him on the second line - with Langenbrunner dropping back to the third line and Clarkson on the fourth. Still, good call on putting Gionta on the off-wing. I wouldn't like to see Colin White and Bryce Salvador on the same pairing as they could have trouble with speedy forwards; but I do agree that the third pairing is a toss-up at this point. Still, good work.

A new-er Devils blog, Hell on Ice, Richard Adragna has a short eulogy for Sergei Brylin. No, he's not dead, but his NHL career essentially is when he signed with SKA St. Petersburg (link goes to Gulitti interview). Brylin was utility forward who proved useful - either as a checker or a spot-filler when injuries struck - and was a part of the team's three Stanley Cups. Yes, he faded in this past season; but he will be remembered for his times prior. While a Brylin-like player may not make the difference between winning or losing the Cup; you need guys like Sarge to get there. Was he crucial or important enough to retire his number? No. But he will be remembered fondly in the hearts of Devils fans.

Speaking of Gulitti, he reports that Jamie Langenbrunner will remain captain. Repeat after me, Devils fans: You don't need to be the best player on the team to be the leader. Yes, it would be a bad season for Langenbrunner if he, say, puts up just barely above 30 points. But it wouldn't be an indictment of his role as captain. Now, if he can't motivate the team and step up in the locker room, that would be a valid strike against his captaincy. I'm just getting that out there now before we hear the complaints in, say, January.

From Puck Daddy, we learn that Jay Bouwmeester did, in fact, sign with the Florida Panthers according to the Miami Herald. So scratch him off the list of future Devils unless that list title ends with "I wish they could magically get." (Aside: On my list of future Devils that I wish they could magically get? Two words: Jack Johnson. But it'll never happen.) Also from Puck Daddy, the Islanders will have a sweet third jersey this coming season according to NY Rivalry. Hopefully, New Jersey can finally stop having ridiculously difficult games against them this coming season.

Lastly, also thanks to Puck Daddy, check out this interview Wyshynski had with NHL 09 producer David Littman if you're into things like games, hockey, both, and fun in general. In the NCAA games, I really dig the "Be a Legend" future as it allows me to create a gigantic (7'0") power running back by the name of Bolt van der Huge and work to become a Scarlet Knight superstar. What Littman is aiming for definitely is appealing and I'd love to give it a shot. Is Blast Hardcheese a good hockey name?

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Sunday, July 27, 2008

 

Fighting and Wins in 2007-2008

For some reason, late last night, I got to thinking how the Devils generally do when there's a fight during a game. Yeah, I don't know it popped in there, but it did. So this morning, I decided to look at all the games last season and see how many fights there were and whether or not there was any connection between it and winning.

To do this, I went to NHL.com and check out the basic recaps for each game. Each recap has a list of penalties, so finding fighting majors and the score (of course) was fairly simple. Just as important as the number of fights there were, when they time they took place. I don't like fighting and I really wouldn't miss it if it were eliminated from professional hockey. That said, there is a train of thought that a fight would "wake a team up" so to speak. It does get the home fans all up in an uproar, I can't deny that. Whether or not it changes the momentum of a game is another question. What you, I, and your favorite auntie cheer or not cheer for is immaterial. The goal of a hockey game is to win, and that will be the focus of this then.

So in addition to counting the number of fights and seeing whether the Devils won, I subjectively decided whether that fight made a difference in the game. I would like to emphasize the word difference here. If the lead changes or a team ties it up after a fight in the same period, I would recognize the fight could have had an affect on the team's performance. Were the Devils losing, a fight takes place, and the Devils remain losing - I don't think the fight changed much of the game's course. I limited it to being within the same period only because an intermission has additional variables come into play when it comes to a team's performance - a leader making a speech, the coach giving the team what's for, and so forth. A fight in the first period, I think, isn't likely to be a catalyst or part of one when the Devils score twice in the third period to win the game. Also, it's not to say, "Well, David Clarkson threw down and the Devils scored 2 goals afterwards; the fight was totally responsible." I'm saying it could have. It's a subjective argument, but I felt it could provide an interesting insight. I understand it's flawed because a game could change in momentum but not yield any goals; however, there's no clearer way of showing that team "turned it around" or "turned it up" other than lighting the lamp.

I also split the difference between all fights and "in-game" fights. I'm defining a fight to be in-game is if it took place within the normal course of a game. Some fights/scrums/etc. take place at the very end of the game when it's all pretty much decided. Fists are thrown out of frustration more than anything else and it ultimately has no affect on the game. So I decided to only really count those in any analysis. Fights at the beginning of the game or in the middle of it would change any momentum on the one place that matters - the scoreboard. At the end of the game, not so much.

Fourthly, I'm only looking at this past season. Before you comment or e-mail me that "How dare I ignore Cam Janssen," I want to point out that the Devils committed 16 more major penalties this past season than in 2006-2007. While not all major penalties are fighting majors, the Devils fought enough times this past season such that it is mathematically impossible for it to be fewer than 2 seasons ago - regardless of "Cammer The Hammer." So much for cries that the team last season lost its "toughness."

Lastly, I'm only counting wins here. Shootout and overtime losses yield points, yes, but they aren't wins. And wins are what's important here. Anyway, there's no need for fancy charts or graphs because the numbers are straight forward:
  • Number of Devils fights: 45
  • Number of games with a Devil fighting "in-game": 32 (34 including the end-game fights)
  • Number of Devils fights "in-game": 42
  • Number of fights that changed the course of the score: 13
  • Devils record when they don't fight: 26-22 (Winning Percentage: 54.16667%)
  • Devils record when they fight "in-game": 19-13 (Winning Percentage: 59.375%)
  • Devils record when they fight but not "in-game": 1-1 (Winning Percentage: 50%)
  • Devils record when the fight changed the course of the score: 6-7 (Winning Percentage: 46.1538%)
Well, my original thought going into this was that fighting really wouldn't have a correlation. And I'm proven somewhat wrong. The Devils actually had better winning percentage when someone in red does throw down their gloves this past season. Not that they did bad without fighting - but the percentages are pretty clear about that. It's also not as if there's a small percentage of fighting; a good 93.3% of these fights are during the course of the game where things can change and approximately 39% of all Devils fights have this kind of fight.

That said, it's not that drastic of a change in winning percentage for fans to demand a fight every game. Of these 42 "in-game" fights, only 13 of them led to a significant change in the game. The Devils ended up slightly under the 50% winning percentage mark, as only 6 of those changes ultimately led to Devils wins. Therefore, most of the Devils fights do not led to a change in the game and when they do, it's almost a coin flip as to whether it works out for New Jersey.

Going into this analysis, I was under the impression that A) the Devils didn't fight all that much and B) the fights don't lead to too many wins - too many of them take place after the game's over, the Devils would likely continue sleepwalking through games regardless of the fight, etc. Thought A was quickly proven wrong, a point further justified when you consider New Jersey was in the middle of the league for major penalties. Thought B was refuted by the Devils happenstance to win 19 games out of the 32 where there were fights during the game. Only 2 fights were at the end of games; and there were even a couple that had multiple fights (most per game this season was 3, achieved three times).

However, it doesn't seem that the Devils fighting lead to the Devils playing better and more productive hockey from this past season. They are mostly just fights that happen in the game. This makes sense, otherwise, we'd see teams all over the league bend over backwards to keep enforcers, tough guys, and goons along for long contracts. In short, I don't think the Devils - or its fans - should be looking for fights to play better hockey - it likely will not happen. Considering most of the fights are by one David Clarkson, a young talented winger, I still think it's best if he's on the ice on shifts that would take place when he's not in the box for 5 minutes.

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Thursday, July 24, 2008

 

Oduya May Be Due for a Wheelbarrow Next Year; Corrente VS. Many

Specifically a wheelbarrow of cash. Let me back up first.

Over at the FanHouse, Jes Golbez gives Johnny Oduya some respect (also known as "props," "dap," "due," and possibly "love") as one of the best bargain players in the entire league. Golbez' reasoning is pretty sound, with a reference to an interesting analysis with the plus-minus stat that I haven't seen until now. Even Devils fans who paid attention during the second half of the season would be surprised at a +27 for the man. That all said, and to support Golbez' argument, Oduya's averaged the third most minutes on the team with 19:01/game, with 3:24/game on special teams. He's been used in all situations and has mostly featured on the top pairing with Paul Martin since the All Star Game. Most impressively, he scored this goal. All this in his second NHL season. Oduya has definitely took it to the proverbial next level.

It'll be interesting next June when Oduya becomes an unrestricted free agent. If Mike Commodore can command $3.75 million/year, as long as Oduya doesn't regress, we're looking at possibly at least $4 million/year. A third season in the NHL, improved performance going into this third season, and a contract year? All the signs point to an even better season for Oduya - and definitely a big raise (hopefully from Lou).

Elsewhere: Brent Sutter did a good, long interview with Tom Gulitti, which is available at Fire & Ice. If you heard the FAN 960 show, this is a nice supplement. Holik's role is better explained, we learn that Larry Robinson stepped down of his own volition, he likes Matthew Corrente, and he doesn't prohibit fights in practice. Why did Gulitti ask that? Well, it's because the confident Fedor Federov and Harry Young went toe to toe with each other at the developmental camp today.

Speaking of developmental camp, Brandon Burlon and Anssi Salmela are still hurt, Vladamir Zharkov showed up, and Matthew Corrente is thinking like a little engine that could, according to Gulitti. He's grown up, physically and emotionally, based on the interview. And he can play some defense, as I understand it. If I were him (and/or his fans), I wouldn't get my hopes up for making the regular roster right out of camp. That Lou and Sutter have openly praised Corrente definitely helps him out. It's always a good thing when the Legendary General Manager and head coach like what you do on the ice. However, his biggest obstacle is based on the sheer number of defenders available. Corrente is going to have to do more than prove in training camp that he's better than the other rookie defensemen (e.g. Salmela, Mark Fraser, Tyler Eckford) to get a spot. He's got to show he can bring more to the table than either Andy Greene, Vitaly Vishnevski, or Sheldon Brookbank. Vishnevski has been in the league for a while and Greene and Brookbank were regulars (well, as regular as you can be on a team with 9 rotating defensemen) last season. That will not be easy. That all said, it's a question of "when" and not "if" for Corrente. I just wouldn't write his name down on the roster just yet. Now if (or when) someone gets traded and that opens up a spot on defense, I fully expect Corrente to be among the leaders in taking that role.

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Tuesday, July 22, 2008

 

Robinson Down! Albelin Up! Fedor Confident! Sutter Speaks!

Fischer types! You read! And possibly decide!

First, from Tom Gulitti's Fire & Ice, it's brief but important with respect to the bench. Larry Robinson is stepping back to return to his role as a special assignments coach and Tommy Albelin will step up into being an assistant coach. From the comments, Gulitti elucidates on what Robinson did the last time he was a special assignments coach. With a lot of young players, this additional focus could help. It will be interesting to see how Albelin's role will affect the defense - even though that probably won't be fully realized until well into the coming season.

The most intriguing thing about this move is that it may expand Sutter's hand in coaching. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Albelin has not been an assistant coach at this level. It wouldn't be a the worst idea for Sutter to be more active with the defenders - assuming he isn't already - and to help Albelin out. Then again, it's entirely possible that Albelin may not need the help, or if he does, he could possibly get it from Robinson. One thing's for sure, there probably won't be a coach in the press box on a regular basis next season. Unless that's where they want Jacques Laperriere.

At this point, I'm now just grasping at straws here with respect to the coaching. Perhaps anything could happen.

Second, as reported by Gulitti and Rich Chere of the Star Ledger, Fedor Fedorov is confident on making the team. The quotes in Chere's article are interesting, to say the least. It's good to see someone with confidence; it can definitely make a difference between a good camp and a bad camp. But he seriously was signed to a one-way contract? I guess the organization is confident in Fedorov. After all, he's making $500k if he ends up in New Jersey or Massachusetts. Good luck to Mike Rupp, Rod Pelley (who's in camp without a contract), and Petr Vrana! You all now have more competition for a regular spot.

Second and half, Gulitti finds out why some of the prospects aren't available - specifically Mattias Tedenby and Mike Hoeffel.

Third, I found out from HF Boards that Sutter did a long interview with "Boomer" Dean Molberg on Calgary's FAN 960. You can listen to the whole thing on the FAN 960 website right here. He is quite specific that he wanted Brian Rolston and Bobby Holik's role on the team (it rhymes with "north mine").

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