In Lou We Trust

Let's sum this up real quick for the Devils; the previews all tend to agree on the following:

Where do they disagree? Easy - when it comes to figuring out how good the Devils are. Despite claims that they can't be counted out, some previews show them in the bottom end of the playoff seeding in the East. Maybe it's telling of how competitive the division, conference, and the league now are; but who knows. Others go in an opposite direction and think they can finish first in the whole conference, much less the division. From my point of view (and my count), the amount of optimistic and pessimistic is about even (with 2MA stuck in the middle!). OK, maybe there are other previews I missed - but from a sample of 15 from both print and the Internet of various areas (Devils fans, big hockey bloggers, etc.), this is what I found. Yes, there are more pessimistic predictions out there for the Devils and based on legitimate concerns. But, it isn't fair or true at all to say that mostly everyone in the hockey world doesn't respect the Devils or their chances. Only one preview comes right out and says they won't make the playoffs (and two are iffy), after all. We're going to see the postseason come to Newark again, the Devils should be that good. How well New Jersey will do - whether they will have home ice again or get in on the final days of April - is the sticking point.

I put all of my thoughts and the links (where possible) to each preview into the following table, so you can judge for yourself.

OK, with the season starting on Friday against the Islanders, it's about time I wrap up my little experiment of reviewing Devils previews. I'll try to summarize them all in a nice little table tomorrow. If you have any idea of more previews that I haven't covered - now is the time to bring them up. Otherwise, this set will be the last.

First off is a quick summary of The Hockey News' preview in their yearbook. I finally found a copy of it on a news stand in NY Penn Station and read through the Devils' section. I didn't purchase it because, well, I was only interested in what was written on two pages. So if I get something wrong, let me know and I'll correct it. I believe it was written by Rich Chere and I got the impression that everything didn't seem so bad in the preview. The offense was poor last year, but it should be better with the addition of Rolston and the hopes that the underachieving forwards will, well, achieve more. The weakness was a defense that wasn't spectacular, which is a bit odd considering they've done well in limiting shots against the Devils (27.5 shots against per game, 8th best in the league) and how rookies would take time acclimate themselves to the NHL (no big worry as the roster is loaded with veterans). You get the impression that the Devils could be solid enough. Then you read the final ranking and predicition: B- and 7th in the East. I guess it means the Devils will be good but not quite good enough in a competitive conference? I'm not sure? I get the feeling this was written way in advance of preseason and I'm sure a more recent preview would yield different results. I guess it's not all that positive ultimately.

On the other spectrum of positive is James Mirtle, who thinks the Devils could finish first in the conference. I don't know if I'd go that far, but he makes a concise and decent case. The Eastern Conference is volitile as a whole and it could be anybody's game (except you, Islanders) if events turn out favorably in various ways. The Devils did lead the conference at one point last season, they didn't change much except for adding a proven scorer (Rolston) which can only benefit the team, and the team did do really well once they got The Rock, Jamie Langenbrunner, and Colin White all in tow. Definitely positive, but again, I have my doubts as to the team finishing first overall. If the offense really does become more potent and productive, then sure, why not? Otherwise, I can see the team winning a lot but not enough to take that top spot if only because of the other teams who are better overall than New Jersey.

At ESPN, we see that Pierre LeBrun has written a team preview. You know, the same Lebrun who didn't think the Devils will make the playoffs. In his summation of the team, he writes: "Every season, the pundits predict the Devils will finally fold, only to be proven wrong." Wow. The irony. It's so real. Anyway, LeBrun really doesn't get much wrong here and doesn't repeat his playoff-less prediction. In fact, I don't see a prediction. The Devils need better results from Patrik Elias, Brian Gionta, and Langenbrunner, which is true. Tere's no reason to be surprised that the Devils as a top defensive team without a stud defender given how the unit did last season along with their excellent checking forwards, which is bolstered by Bobby Holik; which is true. What is nice are the features of their predicted Top Five - which is nearly right, but Bryce Salvador will likely start with Paul Martin and not White, as well as a blurb from Jay Feaster. However, what is annoying is that in three areas on the preview - LeBrun's section, Feaster's blurb, and a side text as their "key question" - they all discuss whether Martin Brodeur can play 70 or more games this season at such a high level. I'm sick of reading this in nearly every preview and I will have more to say on it on Thursday. But what really gets me is that they all come to the same conclusion. - that Marty's the man and sure, he can do it. Did they really need to highlight it in three areas? Especially with other potential questions they could ask, such as how might Brent Sutter approach this season now that he has four full lines of players? It's not bad and it's got some nice angles, I just wish there was more and an actual conclusion of the preview. Does LeBrun think New Jersey will make the playoffs or does his earlier opinion stand?

Lastly, we have the NHL FanHouse. First, let's look at those predictions - in which the whole panel at the FanHouse gives their thought as to who will win the division, the conference, and even the individual player trophies. Overall, it's not bad for the Devils even if the voting is off. Two of the six think the Devils could win the division, whereas others aren't as high - having them sit third in the division. Ahead of the Rangers, mind you. For the conference, the consensus sticks them in fourth, just outside of the division spots. I guess some of those other four people like New Jersey in second in the division if not at first. Lastly, two of them likes Brodeur winning his fifth Vezina trophy - which is very possible given that it is Martin Brodeur.

Now onto the team preview, which was written by Kevin Schultz. The big theme of his preview is that the Devils really haven't changed all that much and that could be an issue considering that they won't surprise anyone. And really, did they need to change all that much outside of signing Holik and Rolston? It's a great point, and absolutely true, that the Devils need to do better within inter-division games and he has the numbers to back it up. And at least he apologizes before mentioning that Marty is getting old yet he remains dominant. Still, he doesn't mince words in his prediction, stating that this team could win the division or even the conference - especially if a big team (Montreal? Philadelphia? Pittsburgh?) falters. I'd say that's positive, yet a bit more realistic than outright saying they could finish first in the conference.

Again, I plan on summarizing all of these tomorrow into a table or table-like format just to see what the general sentiment regarding this team prior to the start of the season. I must say, it seems that a lot of the previews agree with each other but not on what the final outcome could be.

Petr Vrana and Anssi Salmela will be on the New Jersey Devils active roster starting this Friday, according to Gulitti. Both showed that they have the proverbial goods in preseason. Vrana looking good at both center and wing helped force Sutter's hand as versatility is something you'd want in an extra forward. I'm particularly impressed with Salmela because he didn't really shine right away. As the preseason went on, he got more notice and more of an impact.

Will either one start on Friday? I doubt it. I think the forward lines are set unless someone plays poorly, Vrana is a better match-up, or there's an injury. Even if Mike Mottau is still injured, Andy Greene and Sheldon Brookbank is still up with New Jersey so while it's more likely based on how he ended preseason, Salmela is still in competition for getting playing time.

If it's still between 7 and 9:30 PM, go to the WFAN's site. That will give you the link to the streaming audio of tonight's game and to hear the sweet tones of Matt Loughlin and Sherry Ross. Devils-Islanders are in the middle of the first and the good guys are up 1-0 thanks to Zach Parise pouncing on a Islanders mistake. During a power play. Yes, it's a short handed goal and I believe the first this preseason. If I may refer to another blogger's schtick, Parise continues to have his sex on fire.

In the meantime, here's some more self-promotion. Frank at Pensburgh asked me for my thoughts about the Devils for the coming season. He's done the same for all the other team's in league and compiled them all into a big conference preview. Here's the Western conference and here's the Eastern conference, which includes me. Feel free to criticize my preview as I've done quite a bit of that over the last few weeks.

UPDATE: I wrote a second preview that is now up as of yesterday at Faceoff Factor. Jesse Marshall from the blog asked if I could give him a short one and I've obliged with something that has summarized the offseason well enough. It even has a bold prediction (note: not actually in bold). Check it out.

Lastly, a small anecdote. I recently got a copy of the NHL catalog, which shows off all the merchandise you could buy. One of their advertized items were jersey t-shirts (J-shirts?) with a faded look for hockey heroes of the past. Among those pictured included Hull' s#9 for Chicago, Howe's #9 for Detroit, and Hextall's #27 for Philadelphia. I didn't make that last one up. Of all the Flyers' players in the past, and among those to show off in the catelog, the people in charge picked...Ron Hextall.

Gulitti is your main source for news and the he's reporting the big news before tonight's pre-season game is that Fedor Fedorov's opportunity at becoming a Devils just went down drastically - specifically, drastically down to no longer existent. The Devils have too many forwards good enough for the NHL level and Fedorov didn't impress the team enough to find a spot for him. I felt he was OK in preseason so far; definitely putting in a good effort in each game. But he wasn't even the most impressive forward on the Trying to Make the Team Line. I think it's a class move for Lou to respect Fedorov's wishes for wanting to play in the NHL and have his agent to talk to others. It's much better than leaving him under contract and forcing a situation should Fedorov not want to report to Lowell.

In any case, this Gulitti post is important because it establishes that none of the top twelve forwards have been upseated yet and that many of the prospects are now working with Lowell. While nothing is guaranteed, if you're training with the minor leaguers, a start in the NHL isn't going to be likely unless injuries rear their always-ugly head. Incidentally, the notable prospect still with New Jersey? Petr Vrana. My guess in the NHL Full Access article is still alive! But it's bigger news for Vrana. Gulitti's assertion in yesterday's analysis of the players trying to make the team is holding true and the team is going to see if he can play wing tonight against the Islanders. Now's the time for Vrana to take it to the proverbial next level.

Incidentally, speaking of tonight's game, Martin Brodeur will play his first full 60 minute game tonight. Martin is still the Man and shall be referred to as such until he is no longer playing hockey. If you think Brodeur is just a system goalie, Pookie has a concise message for you at IPB. I endorse it.

With a season rapidly approaching, we got more season previews and we're going to see how some of them see the Devils for 2008-2009. Last time, I took a look at three preview magazines - all of which did not think very highly of the Devils. Today, let's look at some more from Devils fans, Devils fans who have to be more impartial, and from people who are not Devils fans but write about hockey all the same.

First, from anonymous in the comments from the last post, we have this Devils preview that's in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer of all places. Yes. It's called the Intelligencer. Anyway, it appears to be a syndicated article from "Sports Network" by Dan Di Sciullo. Di Sciullo's preview is pretty detailed and breaks down the team in each position while having an overall prediction in the end - a good format for a preview as any. He shows an understanding of the Devils organization by stating up front "Detractors will say that those moves show that the Devils are still living in the past, but it's never wise to doubt Lamoriello, after all, he is the man responsible for turning the swamps of Jersey into a frequent home for Lord Stanley." Well said.

Di Sciullo's analysis doesn't tell us much new in the big picture. But he correctly points out that signings of Brian Rolston and Bobby Holik will give the Devils good depth at center. However, he gets some things wrong in the process. Yes, Zach Parise, Brian Gionta, and Dainius Zubrus need to bounce back on the offense, and the signings could help them. But he bizarrely states that the signing of Rolston will free up Madden's role as a defensive center - a role that Madden still did last season and has been since he's been a Devil - and stated that Patrik Elias and Jamie Langenbrunner could play on Madden's line. Jamie, yes, I can see that and would like that. But, save for some bizarre Sutter line-mixing, Elias is not going to the checking line. Also, Travis Zajac is usually a center, but he should bounce back after a poor sophmore season. Regardless, he's got a good handle on the defense - bold idea predicting the 6 who will play - and the goaltending is straight forward. I see no issue with his prediction of the playoffs; but I don't think Brodeur's workload being lessened will mean a longer playoff run. The team will have to perform better and work harder as a whole in the postseason - it's not all on Brodeur. Still, it's a solid preview in a place I didn't expect it. Good job, anonymous.

By the by, anonymous (the same one? a different one? WHO KNOWS?) also points out the Devils got a mention in ESPN's 10 burning questions for the NHL Preseason. That's mention in the singular, as Pierre LeBrun just stated that they finally (aside: what's this 'finally' junk?) won't make the playoffs. It's not an actual preview, but just a thought. Here's my thought: Marc Lebrun will be proven wrong.

Let's go to the next preview, from a big name in the world of hockey blogging - Greg Wyshynski of Puck Daddy. In the past month, they've had a theme of high school yearbooks for their previews for every team in the season. They are detailed, cover all the bases, and are a little entertaining to boot. They even go ahead and note the bloggers and news sources online for each team. Here's his Devils preview which he gets through without being terribly biased.

He interestingly points out Elias as the player to "break out" this season; which makes some sense since he'll be on the same line as Brian Rolston. He's absolutely right in stating that how the offense does will make the difference between an early playoff exit and a run for the Cup; just look at 1995, 2000, 2001, and 2003 for success and the last few years for further, yet sad proof. I am disappointed he dragged out the same tired trope of the Devils not being excited in his coaching section - if you don't find the Devils exciting and state that more goals equals more filled seats, how come some teams who also play the same kind of defensive hockey and rely on a transition offense get those sellouts, like say, some group of blueshirted chumps across a river from Newark? Seriously. I am also questioning why he doesn't think Zubrus won't be better this season. Most of last season featured Zubrus working to get down low, doing all the little things right, do well enough along the boards, but he was unfortunate that he didn't have consistent linemates (but who did?) and that when he got a scoring chance, a defender/goaltender just got a piece of it at the last minute. Now that he's had a full season under Sutter, I think he'll blossom with a given role. Anyway, Greg thinks the Devils will make the playoffs and the only thing that could screw it all up is the only thing that could screw up New Jersey since 1997. It's a good read, like the other previews on the site, and it's not your standard, by-the-numbers preview. And I'm not just saying that because he mentions this blog.

Let's not talk about this recent preview Greg did with The Pensblog, something he doesn't sound particuarly proud of at Puck Daddy. I don't blame him, but not because of it's content. It's because it just plain sucks if only for further fueling the baseless criticism that the Devils are "boring."

So let's look at IPB. They've done something different for their preview, giving individual thoughts for each individual player and pointing out how they are trending. It's a good idea as it sticks out from the other previews. Some of them make sense, like their rationale for Zubrus and the utter confusion surrounding where Andy Greene's career is going (I couldn't tell you, to be honest, he's a firm tweener unless he shows more at this point). Others are a bit of a head scratcher. I agree that Travis Zajac should have a bounce back year, and Gionta in a contract year should provide a better year than expected, and the rest of the forwards should generally do better; but how can those statements be claimed after saying Elias is trending down? Why can't he bounce back as well when he had the same inconsistencies as everyone else, Ookies? Also, I get it, you don't care for Bobby Holik, but he's not going to Lowell - like getting cut in a knife fight, just expect it and accept it. Anyway, it's a good read, but it doesn't go far to say what they think the team will do. Given the general attitude of how they write about the Devils, I'm going to guess they'll be very pessimistic unless the Devils put together some amazing results. Still, it's a different take from other previews and you should read it for that. McKeen's is the only other one where they had something for every player, but that's fantasy-hockey related anyway. Incidentally, IPB did an even more, uh, different take on the team's trend a few days later. It's...a thing. And I have no comment on it.

IPB's Pookie also put together (or at least posted, maybe it was a collaborative work?) a short preview of the teams at ModFan. Literally short, just ten words at most for each team. A nitpick for the Devils, Pookie, Rolston and Holik were also on the 1995 team.

Fourthly, assuming that is a word, I found this through IPB as well, someone by the name of Pam did this preview at Melt Your Face-off. I know it's in the sidebar, but I don't follow the site; but it appears to be an opinion-based Deadspin-esque hockey blog by Deadspin commenters. Anyway, the preview isn't really much of one as 80% of it is about the horrible toss to the Rangers (true) and the saga of Bobby Holik leaving the team in 2000 to sign with the Rangers and how he wasn't fully missed due to John Madden. Needless to say, Pam isn't plussed with the signings. Anyway, the conclusion is an actual preview - rather a repeat of her short prediction last year - and Pam, who both hates and loves the Devils (in a word, what?) believes history will repeat itself. While I agree the team should be competitive, she doesn't offer much in as a reason as to why. Maybe her point is that not much has changed; but I don't see how signing a top six forward and a veteran center for the fourth line could not lead to any change?

Anyway, in the last seven previews I've read and discussed for far too long for little gain, six of them either have a pessimistic tone with the team or a pressimistic prediction. Originally, my point of doing all this was to get a handle of the general sentiment of what others think of this team. Almost all think the playoffs will happen for New Jersey, but few, if any, are confident in how they'll do. It's not that it's all baseless pessimism, most of it is reasoned out and based on actual results last season. I get that and understand it. Considering some of this pessimism comes from Devils fans, we just can't say "everyone else just doesn't respect New Jersey." The flipside to being a strong franchise is that expectations are high, and for some, the Devils just aren't meeting them by doing well in a tough division in a tighter-than-ever NHL. I don't know, maybe I'm missing something to all of this.

As usual, if you've gotten this far, thanks! And if you know of anymore Devils previews, let me know with a comment or an e-mail. Incidentally, I wrote a short one for another blog that should be up soon; but I don't think I'm in any place to critique or complain about my own work outside that it's likely too dang long.

I just came back from the first hockey game of the 2008 preseason at The Rock against the Rangers; a 3-2 win. This should provide a good boost after a 4-1 loss to Philadelphia the other night. Now, to be honest as much as it is great to see a win - especially over the rangers - I can't place a lot of value in the result. It's preseason. These games don't count and both sides aren't featuring their best available. So let's look at is how the teams did. However, it's preseason. It's important to also keep in mind that not everyone is "there."

The big differences between the two games were the first two forward lines, two thirds of the fourth line, and the defense. The Philly game featured the potential first line of Patrik Elias, Brian Rolston, and Brian Gionta along with a big line of Bobby Holik, Dainius Zubrus, and Mike Rupp. The Rangers game saw Zach Parise reunite with Travis Zajac and David Clarkson; with the expected third line of John Madden, Jay Pandolfo, and Jamie Langenbrunner. The fourth line's only consistency was Pierre-Luc Leblond-Letourneau. The defense against the Flyers featured Johnny Oduya, Colin White, Mike Mottau, Sheldon Brookbank, Matthew Corrente, and Tyler Eckford. Against the Rangers there was Bryce Salvador with Paul Martin, Anssi Salmela and Andy Greene, and Jay Leach with Matthew Spiller (an admittedly weaker defense).

Despite the line-up changes, it's fair to say that the Devils didn't exactly shine in either contest. Moreso in the Flyer game, the Devils were all over the place from being pressured to applying pressure. But the finishing wasn't there (not a great start for Elias, Rolston, and Gionta) and the Flyers truly capitalized on the Devils' mistakes (e.g. Corrente's giveaway), leading to the result. Against the Rangers tonight, the Devils looked solid for the first half; the Rangers surged in the second half of the second period; and both teams looked absolutely inept on offense - the Devils not being able to generate a rush, the Rangers not being able to aim a shot against the mighty Scott Clemmensen - until the last 5 minutes or so.

So what does this tell us? Well, the Devils still have some rust to get rid of. It is worrisome that the team can go through long stretches where they generate nothing on offense. Games will have such lulls, but not for 7+ minutes without a shot or much possession on the attack. Between the two games the competition has changed, Corrente didn't really impress against the Flyers whereas Salmela looked OK against the Rangers. Among the consistent forwards between the two games - Fedor Fedorov, Nicklas Bergfors, and Petr Vrana - those three looked particularly lively in both games. Namely because they are all looking for spots on this team and are giving what they can. It's hard to say who sticks out the most. Fedorov showed he can take the body tonight; Bergfors picked up 2 assists across both games; and Vrana got the one goal against Philly. There's plenty more preseason left, so I wouldn't expect much to be determined right now.

Oh yeah, the best Devil overall has to be Zach Parise. He scored a brace tonight . The first on a heads up play from a missed (deflected?) Bryce Salvador shot where he potted it past Henrik Lundqvist and trickled in. The second was an amazing put-back. Backup goaltender Antoine LaFluer stopped the initial Paul Martin shot and before it hit the ground, Parise swooped in and smacked it into the corner of the net. I'm sure there will be some video of it soon. Anyway, Parise clearly showed that he's ready for the season; I hope he keeps that same drive to make goals happen for this season.

Lastly, read Tom Gulitti's Fire & Ice. He's got all the impressions, quotes, and thoughts about the pre-season games. He's got way more information of interest than I will and you'll get a better feel for how things are going. Then again, if you're a Devil fan, you should be reading Gulitti anyway.

So with preseason already setting in, let's take a look at some more of the Devils previews that are out there. Until now, they've ranged as mostly positive with some caveats. But I found some more that aren't so kind and are actually somewhat blunt.

First, we look at the magazines. Basically, I ran to a local Barnes & Noble and checked out what the various hockey magazines had to say about the Devils. They included the NHL Official Yearbook - which I is a NHL "joint," McKeen's 2008-2009 Yearbook, and The Sporting News NHL Preview. I didn't see The Hockey News there, which I found a bit odd. Usually, THN is a regular over at a B&N; maybe it was my unlucky day.

Anyway, they are all similar to each other. Each and everyone one of them came to the same conclusions. The Devils' offense is questionable, but the signing of Brian Rolston should help. Brent Sutter is the right coach for the team. Special teams were a weakness. And the big one of all: Each of the three predicted that the Devils will finish fourth in the division. Ugh. That is a bold prediction for the team not doing so well.

Let's break it down a bit because beyond all that, there are some differences. For the NHL Yearbook, most of the preview was a re-cap of last season. However, they did point out the lack of a big shot on the point - which is true, but hopefully rectified with Rolston. Also, they were the only preview among the three that did state their poor inter-divisional record. They were so bold to state that while the team was talented to make the playoffs, and then predicting them a 9th place spot in the East. I guess they do not believe in the talent?

Now, the Sporting News preview for the Atlantic Division actually had a name associated with it - Chuck Gormley of the South Jersey Courier-Post. He's a regular contributor and seems to know his hockey. He has some interesting praise for the Devils, listing Martin Brodeur as the division's top goalie (of course) and Zach Parise as the division's top left winger (really). Overall, it's what you'd expect - goaltending, coaching, and defense are the strengths; special teams and offense are the weaknesses. Nothing we didn't know. He states that Travis Zajac is likely to breakout, rising like a phoenix from a sophmore slump. However, I disagree that the rookie to watch will be Anssi Salmela because it's looking like Corrente is the favorite of the non-regular defensemen to make the team. Curiously, he states in the division preview that there won't be much change in the standings; but does slot New Jersey as fourth, two spots lower than they were last season. Does this mean a playoff spot? It's not really clear, actually. A division prediction is made, but I didn't find a conference or a playoff prediction beyond who's going to the conference finals and winning it all. No, New Jersey isn't there.

Lastly, we come to McKeen's, a guide for those who like their season previews with fantasy predictions and discussion for literally every player on the team. Even Andy Greene got a small write up, fantasy-wise. McKeen's is interesting in that it predicted not just a position for the Devils, but also an actual record. They are predicting 39-31-12 (90 pts. tied with Tampa Bay for eighth, hedging their bets?), 231 goals for (yea, mo' goals!) and 223 goals against (what?). McKeen's preview is the most interesting for their bluntness. They just state that Brodeur played too many games and will get less (questionable), that Patrik Elias and Dainius Zubrus in particular need to rebound (true, but what of Brian Gionta?), the defense doesn't have any names but is effective all the same (true), and that they could very well challenge the Penguins for the division (only 4 points behind last season). Amazingly, the preview writer believes that Paul Martin is the man to watch for this season; it states to expect career highs in points now that he's had a year as a #1 defenseman. While I do agree with the idea that Martin will do better now he's more acclimated to being the de facto top defenseman on the team; I'm not so sure about the career highs. He'll have to contribute more on even strength unless he gets a regular spot next to Rolston on the power play. Even then, Martin's shot isn't great; I think he's better at puck distribution. That said, his career highs in goals is 6 and his highest mark in points is 37. Maybe it's not that far fetched. If the offense as a whole does better, Martin may benefit from the rising tide.

Still, I'm really impressed that among three different print guides, they all predict the same result for the Devils within the division. They tend to agree on the big-picture of the Devils - poor offense, a good-enough defense, amazing goalie. But they differ on the details, such as who to look for to have a big year or whether they will make the playoffs. None of them state the Devils are devoid of talent. Yet, they are big believers that Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are top teams in the division; and they expect the Rangers to be slightly better (maybe based on how well they've done against New Jersey last season?). All across the board, fourth place is where they expect the Devils to end up.

I disagree with that prediction, to be frank. As those tend to doubt New Jersey, they tend to play better and finish higher than what they look like on paper. I think (and hope!) I'll be proven right in the coming season. Pre-season results, notwithstanding. Next time, I'll discuss more Devils previews from the blogosphere.

Yes, TONIGHT. It's the first hockey game the New Jersey Devils hockey organization will play for their preseason, the first since their stomach-punching playoff loss to Our Hated Rivals, and while it won't count for anything, the game against the Philadelphia Flyers will be a sight to see.

And with Gulitti reporting - along with past reports of lines like Elias-Rolston-Gionta and Rupp-Holik-Zubrus - that roster-battlers Fedor Fedorov, Nicklas Bergfors, and Petr Vrana will be on a line together. That will be interesting to see since all of them can't make the team, they are put together to harness their competiveness for any spots. An interesting idea and I can't wait to see how it looks.

Also, from the same article, you can surmise that your defensemen will be Colin White, Mike Mottau, Matthew Corrente, Tyler Eckford, Sheldon Brookbank, and Johnny Oduya. Two rookie defensemen, one of which has past experience in doing well in training camp. Yet another thing to look for in tonight's game.

You can see it through the power of the Internet™. The Flyers website will be streaming the game IF you are local (boo). Gulitti will be posting updates about the game. The Devils website will be streaming audio from the contest, but no video. Want to learn a little about the opposition? Might as well check out this short preview from Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Will the Devils win? It's preseason, so as long as there no injuries and they look in sync, that'll be good enough for me. But the important thing is that it's Devils hockey. It's back! Receive and enjoy it!

With the first full day of training camp complete with the veterans, Gulitti has plenty of things to report at Fire & Ice. He's got a guess as to who will be in the starting line up based on who was changing in the main locker room. Now, it's just a guess from Gulitti, but when I saw this list, I find myself agreeing with the guess. I don't see any of these guys not making the team unless someone (e.g. Matthew Corrente) really impresses in preseason to unseat one of the defensemen:

Now, just on a lark, here's what I think the lines will be should Gulitti's guess turn out to be right.

Elias-Rolston-Gionta
Parise-Zajac-Zubrus
Pandolfo-Madden-Langenbrunner
Rupp-Holik-Clarkson

Martin-Salvador
White-Mottau
Oduya-Brookbank

Brodeur
Weekes

Extras: Pelley, Greene

I expect Elias to play with Rolston and Gionta based on Gulitti's report here, where we learn that Elias has no issue playing left wing again and that so far the line seems to be training well together and enjoying it. Left over from that, I figured Parise is a lock for the top six; Zajac will be given a shot in a scoring role again, and Zubrus just to see how he would fit there. The third line is fundamental; Madden and Pandolfo are a given and I think Langenbrunner will do well there as he won't be expected to score as much (and it may seem like he wouldn't regardless). I fully expect Holik to be on the fourth line (he will not be scratched) and I figure Rupp and Clarkson will be there to make it a really physical line. For forward, basically Pelley has the inside track on getting a spot as a scratch and so Petr Vrana and Fedor Fedorov need to impress in training camp if they want to crack into the line up on the fourth line. I don't think Nicklas Bergfors will get in unless a spot opens on the top two lines as he is a scoring winger and his talents would be wasted on the third or fourth lines.

From the second half of the original post where he made this guess, Gulitti informs us that Sutter has been considering changing his defensive pairings. So I figure the defense pairings will reflect that. I took a shot at Brookbank getting the start over Greene since Brookbank was more consistent on the third pairing than Greene - who truly needs to do well in preseason to stay up (or in) New Jersey. Given how training camp goes, this side of the skaters is more volitile. I expect a return of Oduya to the top four in case Salvador-Martin doesn't go well. Outside of Greene, Matthew Corrente has a good chance to become an extra defenseman if he outperforms one of Greene or Brookbank. Sutter mentioned Mottau pairing with White working well, so I don't expect him to drop. Since it's not etched in stone who the #6 guy will be, Corrente has the best chance of all the Devils' prospects to make the team this year.

Goaltending is straight forward. Brodeur is the best there is in this league and will go down as one of the best there was and one of the best there will ever be. What's interesting is that both Gulitti and Rich Chere have reported that Brodeur may not play 77 games this season like he did in 2007-2008. This has led to speculation on various message boards as to how many games Brodeur should play, with some stating that he should rest more for the playoffs.

That's all contingent on how the season plays out; but I'd like to go against my better judgment and remind everyone about the playoff series against the Rangers. Yes, Martin Brodeur didn't play his best and has admitted as such (just look at the Chere article); but it wasn't fatigue. The true root cause was that the team wasn't going to win the series because they just didn't put in the effort until they were losing in the game. I've even stated as such after the first, the second, the third, and the fourth loss in the series. Just because Marty is quick to take the blame doesn't mean it was completely his fault; do not forget that the Devils as a whole got out-worked and couldn't break through. If Kevin Weekes started 10 more games last season and assuming all other things being equal, it wouldn't mean the rest of the team would have performed any better. (Also, if Marty was truly tired, wouldn't have we seen it well before the playoffs?) Let's avoid revisionist history.

Anyway, I think what I've come up for the lines makes sense considering the roster right now for opening night. However, the best part of training camp is upon us - preseason. It will determine who will fight to earn a spot, earn future consideration, and earn themselves a trip back to junior or Lowell. Interesting times are upon us, coinciding with the return of hockey.

If you'd like to read updates about training camp, Tom Gulitti is your man to go check out. He is, as usual, on point and he has all you need to know and more about the scrimmages, who will line up at center between Rolston and Elias on the first line (at first), the free AHL preseason game at the Rock, and that Brian Rolston has a no-trade clause. Hopefully, should Rolston play as well as he can play, a trade will not be necessary regardless of the clause. Anyway, go to Fire & Ice and just keep on scrolling down. Likewise, check out Tibbs at Beast of the East as he aggregates all the Devils articles out there himself.

However, I want to talk about hits. I made an attempt at a hitting analysis from last season similar to the shooting accuracy analysis I did a few months ago. I put off the follow-up to Part 1 because I wasn't quite confident in the accuracy of the hit results I got game to game from the NHL's game reports (pulled from NHL.com). I noticed that some games somehow had way more hits than others. For example, the Devils' seventy-seventh game of the season was against the Rangers at MSG and a total of 104 hits were recorded. In comparison, the Devils' next game was against Philadelphia at the Rock, and despite how those games get, only 21 total hits were logged. I found it hard to believe that there would be that big of a difference in hits recorded, especially against two hated rivals. Different scorers at different games can truly yield extremely high variability. I can understand why Hockey Analysis attempted to adjust the real time super statistic of hitting (among others).

So basically, you may want to take all of this with a grain of salt since I have to assume NHL's reports are correct. I don't know how well the adjustment works nor how it would work on a game to game basis. That said, I think it's an interesting exercise all the same.

Now, that is something right there. From what I've compiled from NHL's reports, the Devils outhit their opponents more often than not in all games and when they do win. More impressively, is that they do so while at The Rock to the tune of approximately 75.61% of all 41 home games. Based on this empirical evidence alone, and with our assumptions, we can conclude that the Devils are definitely not a soft team as they pile up the hits, especially at home. As an aside, the Devils actually outhit their opponents in 21 of the 36 Devils losses (or non-wins to be precise), which is good for a rate of approximately 58.33%.

Again, using our assumptions we find out that this makes sense when we breakdown the average hits per game by the Devils and their opponents. In this case, I determined the averages between Devils wins and losses, Devils at the Rock and on the road, and games where the Devils did and did not outhit their opponents. I expected the Devils to have a higher average of hits than their opponents when they outhit their opponents and especially at home.


From what we see here, my expectations were only half right I took a percent difference to highlight how significant the differences in averages were. I was correct in expecting that the difference in average hits by both sides would favor New Jersey at home. Interestingly, when the Devils win or lose, the difference in averages just under a hit in favor of New Jersey. Given that the Devils outhit their opponents in about 58% of their wins and 58% of their losses, this is a reasonable result. What is truly stark is the difference in average hits by the Devils in games at home and on the road. It's truly massive and given that both sample sizes are the same, 41 games each, it perhaps could be said that the Devils take up their physical game when away from home. Unfortunately for them, so do their opponents, it seems. In addition, check out the averages when the Devils outhit and get outhit. The Devils actually average more hits in the games where they get outhit by their opponents. Again, assuming our assumptions are valid, that's a testament to how tough the Devils are - they don't roll over, it's just that their opponents were more vigorous in taking the body.

Based on the chart, the significant differences appear among our empirical data when the Devils are at home (a difference in averages of 2.756 hits), when the Devils are outhitting their opponents, and when the Devils are being out hit. In those last two cases, the differences in averages is roughly around 4.5 hits (up to 4.667 in the former, down to 4.412 in the latter).

However, given that the Devils average 1.51 more hits when they are being outhit, this brings me back to the issue of the assumption made earlier. I cannot rule out scorer bias when it comes to hits being recorded from game to game. I gave an example of this earlier, but the previous chart provides further suggestion. While the Devils aren't certainly soft, the fact that the Devils' average so many more hits on the road is questionable. From what I've seen of the team, they don't seem to be that more physical on the road than at home and while I'm sure there are games where they have been, I certainly have some doubts that it would translate over the whole season. Likewise, I don't think traveling to the Rock incapacitates opponents from throwing the body by half of what they do at home. Granted, the opponents are teams of varying physical ability, effort on a given night, etc. However, overall, that their average based on NHL's numbers doubles up when they go home definitely raises an eyebrow. Combine that with the earlier example and I cannot come up with a definitive solution.

If we assume there isn't anything wrong with NHL's numbers, we can conclude from the empirical evidence that the Devils were certainly not soft last season. They got more hits than their opponents at home, they stepped up their hitting on the road, and they get more hits than their opponents more often than not in both wins and losses.

While the 58.7% of the Devils' wins come as they outhit their opponent, that 58.3% of their losses come in the same state means that I don't think that there is a correlation between wins and outhitting the opponent. Furthermore, there wasn't a large difference in average hits in wins or losses; those were only significant when the Devils were at home aside from one outhitting the other. Because the initial assumption about NHL's numbers - the scorers recording real time super stats being correct - is suspect, a complete conclusion cannot be reached. However, based on what numbers we do have access to, I am confident in stating that the Devils were definitely not a soft team lacking in physical play. Even when they were being outhit, they average a solid number of hits - moreso when they are leading other team in hits. While the loss of Vitaly Vishnevski will hurt in the hit department and the team in general isn't a hit machine, I don't expect the Devils to become physical doormats in the coming season based on what they showed last season.

The Front Office Sports Network is a growing organization that has namely focused on baseball with two separate sites for the sport. The first is MLB Front Office, which focuses on fantasy baseball, and a blog about what's going on in the world of baseball, Major League Report. Today, they just launched a site about the NHL - NHL Full Access. It just launched today and hopefully it'll grow into a massive site for the fans of the game, with articles focusing on each division, a blog for fantasy hockey called Rotopuck, and even a section for the minors.

Why am I so particular about this site than others? Well, namely because I'm a part of this one. I am currently writing a weekly article about the Atlantic Division every Monday for NHL. The first one is up and it's right here. That's right, you can read me actually trying to be unbiased and fair to the Philadelphia Flyers and the New York Rangers. It's a struggle. I'm still figuring out with how I want to approach the column; but I'll definitely try to have something to say every week. And if you have any suggestions about (or for) the column, feel free to e-mail me or leave a comment. The worst that happens is that I don't read it or outright dismiss it, so you got nothing to lose, really. So check out NHL Full Access on a regular basis. Thanks to Kevin Orris for giving me this opportunity and for putting a lot of the site together.

Also, while I'm on the subject of talking about what I'm doing, you all should know that I have become a full season ticket holder of the New Jersey Devils. So that means fewer gameday posts and more "game review" posts. Something tells me that most of you won't mind that. However, it also means I got preseason tickets. I hope to make it to all of them so I can give you all some idea of how the prospects, fringe players, and regulars are doing before the season truly begins.

There's more previews coming out here and for the first one, well, I thought the NHL.com Devils preview was optimistic. I found a better example of optimism through the Devils' board on HFBoards. Compared to the one written by Mike Heika, Dallas Stars reporter at the Dallas Morning News, that wasn't an optimistic preview. Consider the opening to his preview:

Woah! First in the East! He's got a point about how a team can still contend in today's NHL by focusing on their defense and how the Stars and Devils play similar styles. He's absolutely right about the team concept and Martin Brodeur. But first? In the Eastern conference? This season? Wow. I hope he's right, but, wow. That's some kind of confidence there.

Heika notes that the two major signings of the offseason, Brian Rolston and Bobby Holik, will fit in well because they know what they are getting into. They already know what the team philosophy (a.k.a. "The Lou-ade") is and can perform in that capacity. He also states that the defense could be better, but stated that it's good enough especially with - the best goaltender in the league - behind them all. He tended to gloss over the team's offense; but I guess he was implying that Patrik Elias, Zach Parise, and Jamie Langenbrunner will do better with a solid set of centers (Rolston, Travis Zajac, John Madden, Holik).

Ultimately, while it's not completely unlikely, I'm still having some trouble seeing this Devils team finish first in the East. Again, I'd love it were to happen; but I have my doubts. Still, I have to respect the man's opinion - he considers how players buy into a system to be important. Since we're Devils fans who remember the team's rise and three Stanley Cups, it's an incredibly important facet of the game. Besides, how often does someone in the outside media correctly identify what makes the Devils who they are, gives Martin Brodeur a lot of credit, expects the Rangers to fall back, and think this team can be big players in the coming season? For that alone, it's definitely worth your time.

On the more realistic side of previews, and by a Devils fan, we have Joe Betchel of 2 Man Advantage who has written a preview of his own. Yes, 2 Man Advantage has updated! They still exist. In any case, Betchel forms his preview in the form of questions, with his thoughts of what the answers will be. His questions are quite valid. The defense is still a sticking point as the top pairing is Paul Martin and Johnny Oduya and he wonders outloud as to whether Lou will make another move for a defenseman. Just jump in with my own thought, if Lou will make a significant move it will most likely be a trade and probably in January-February 2009. Either way, I agree with Joe that we won't see anything major yet. He's also not confident in the offense. He's confident in Rolston, but his concerns are about the other forwards on the team. These are very valid and for the Devils to succeed, they're going to have to step up their respective games. Interestingly enough, he is confident in Brent Sutter. Given the concerns at defense and at forward, you'd think coaching would play a part in fueling part of those concerns.

In any case, Betchel's preview is more of what some (most?) Devils fans could be feeling. On paper, the defense is unimpressive and the coaching staff did a great job in having them play above their expectations. On paper, the offensive talent exists, but the consistency wasn't there (for any forward save for the checkers, but that's with respect to their position) in reality. Yet, the team has Martin Brodeur, a solid concept, and they make do - as difficult as it can be sometimes.

Now, the point I'm trying to make with these season preview summaries is that I'm trying to get a feel for what other people think of the Devils heading into this season. Sometimes, for whatever reason, it may seem that no one respects the Devils or that this is their last year in glory or somesuch. And I'm sure there are some previews and thoughts just like that. But I want to get a handle of a larger community of previews. For all we know, a lot of the previews out there think the Devils may be pretty good this season. Or whether they think the offense will do better or worse. Or something else entirely. I'm interested in what they have to say and would like to compare them at some point.

I'm not trying to pick apart everyone's previews or do the worst snarky commentary possible for what may just amount to a prediction or snidely discount or insult a writer/blogger (though 2MA needs to rise from their grave). That's not my intention. I just want to summarize what the preview states, highlight their points, and just give my thoughts on them. And ultimately, tabulate how the previews differ from each other. So if you know of any Devils previews out there - blog, media, or otherwise - let me know (e-mail is best) so I can get as many as possible.

With training camp starting in mid-September and a number of teams, including the Devils, starting pre-camp workouts, it's the time where season previews are written, published, and read. The NHL's website has a cavalcade of preview coverage - with, as you would as expect, complete previews for each team. So let's take a look at what NHL staff writer Adam Kimelman has to say about the Devils for this season.

Given that the preview is from NHL.com, it's a very optimistic preview. I don't see the league's website being blunt about it and just say that a team is going to be outright bad. But it's definitely worth reading. Consider the New Jersey Devils' preview - Kimelman correctly points out that the offense needed addressing in the offseason because they have been so bad at it. And as a result, he has more written about the forwards than the defense or the goaltending. Essentially, he doesn't expect the defense to be an issue and he points out what milestones Martin Brodeur will likely break this season. Not just the obvious - career wins - but also in games played and possibly in total saves and minutes. There's not much to say about the defense; so let's consider his section on the forwards which is a cause of some skepticism.

Apparently, Kimelman thinks that Brian Rolston will play at center for New Jersey, with Zach Parise and Brian Gionta on his wing, and all three will therefore have great seasons. That would be great and I agree that Rolston will provide a boost to the offense. However, I'm still not sure Rolston should be placed at center. I've expressed this concern back in July; but for all I know, the Devils will make it work. Also, I'm not sure that Brian Gionta will get a big boost by playing with Rolston and Parise. Gionta was shuffled all over the place last season and he seemingly forgot to crash the net like he did in 2005-2006. He wasn't carrying an offensive burden as much as his (and the team's) inconsistency was a burden on offense. Don't get me wrong, I hope Kimelman is right in this regard; I'm just not as hopeful.

He also touches on Patrik Elias, saying that with Rolston at center, he can go back to left wing. In Kimelman's scenario, that's true. However, he'll be on the second line with, I guess, Travis Zajac and Dainius Zubrus? Or Jamie Langenbrunner? He may be more comfortable at left wing, but I don't know whether that will lead to more points. While it'd be amazing, I am further skeptical that Jay Pandolfo and John Madden will repeat their production from last season. It's going to be up to the top six forwards to improve on their production because if New Jersey is looking to Madden and Pandolfo for scoring, the team's offense clearly has problems.

His reasons for optimism at the end of the column are mostly sound. Martin Brodeur will remain being magnificient. Sutter now knows what he has to do and we'll likely see fewer line-up changes, which in turn can allow for more stability and allow chemistry to develop. But Zach Parise hitting 100 or more points? That's a rather bold prediction, Kimelman. Patrik Elias came close in 2000-2001 with 96 and that's from having a monster season while playing the whole season on the storied A Line. To hit triple digits I would think that Parise would have to have a monster season like no other in Devils' history and have the right chemistry with his linemates and stay with the same linemates and stay healthy and hope opposing defenses can't figure him out. Brian Rolston and Parise's development alone won't be enough. I'd love to be proven wrong about this, but I don't think we're going to see that yet.

Kimelman's preview, as I said earlier, is optimistic and the preview itself is worth reading as it's a decent, to-the-point summary of the Devils. The additional articles linked in the preview are also worth your time. However, I think the more optimistic parts should be taken with grains of salt, so to speak. If you're looking for a comprehensive Devils preview, this alone won't do it.

I was sick for a few days, so bear with me for being rather late with this. Tom Gulitti is back with actual substance at Fire & Ice. Apparently, the unofficial beginning of training camp, or "the informal pre-camp workout," began yesterday at the Prudential Center with 18 players arriving to train. 18! And 12 of them are Devils regulars! That's excellent! Three guys stick out from the list that Gulitti that he posted:

1. Tyler Eckford. This doesn't surprise me much, as Eckford wants to start getting to work right away. He didn't show up to the Devils' development camp in July because he was still taking courses at Alaska-Fairbanks, as Gulitti reported. Hopefully his classes went well, U of A-F can use that scholarship for another player, and Eckford starts making progress as he becomes a professional ice hockey player.

2. Fedor Fedorov. He's serious about wanting a position with the New Jersey. He showed up to developmental camp and he's been given a number in this workout (which may mean nothing, Pascal Rheaume got a low number in camp many times). I still think that he'd have to start on the fourth line were he to make the team and that's a shame for Fedorov. Bobby Holik was signed in the offseason and he may end up there; and even then it'd be a fight with Rod Pelley.

3. Rod Pelley. Now, he's not signed yet and he's working out with the team. Gulitti asked Lou about his contract status and he had this to say:

A day later, Gulitti raised the question to Pelley:

Usually, players without contracts don't take part in team activities - especially ones that could result in unfortunate injury. It's great that he isn't holding out and it's clear he wants to be with New Jersey; but I'm absolutely baffled that he's not signed. What would both sides need more time for? For a player who, most likely, will make only (yeah, I know, only) six figures? Could it be that they are discussions over whether he'll be a one-way or two-way player - especially with others (Holik, Fedorov) that could center the fourth line? Could it be incentives? Could it be the shoes? I have no idea. With the official training camp beginning in a few weeks, I suppose we'll hear a resolution to this soon - and hopefully a reason as to why this took so long.

Anyway, Gulitti has also asked Lou about whether the training camp will be open to the public and Lou's answer says "probably not." Well, it's not a straight "no," but it may not be likely given his answer. As far as why the practice rink has seats and a sponsor (the AmeriHealth Pavillion Center!), well the center isn't just for the Devils' practice but it will host hockey clinics, tournaments, and maybe some youth hockey among Newark teams. In a feature about the youth hockey representation at the Rock, co-owner Mike Gilfillan talks in this video (1:44 in) about the Newark Americans and a mite Americans squad and how they'll move to the Pavillion eventually. That probably makes more sense as to why there are seats at least. (ASIDE: I love the fact that the Devils have all of these video clips on their official site, but a way to promote that you even have this or have new videos would be excellent.)

Would an open camp bring in more and new fans to the franchise? Honestly, I don't know. It would make the team more accessible in a way and allow the fans to see more of the prospects and their favorite players up close. On the other hand, the camp likely takes place during the day - which isn't really accessible for most people - and it's mostly going to be drills and practice between those you will see in Newark in October and those you will see in Lowell (or elsewhere). If you're really into the team, I can see this as something you'd like to check out; but maybe not if you just learned that the Devils are a hockey team. As an analogue, I went to a NY Giants training camp session last year with my brother. We both thought it was interesting, but it was mostly standing around watching the players do their thing in practice with other Giants fans. While it was cool to see them upclose and working out (e.g. Jeremy Shockey helped Kevin Boss how to lift a guy on a block), it wasn't particularly exciting and I didn't see it as something that would make somebody become a Giants fan. Also, there were just several hundred spectators for the training camp of a vastly popular NFL team. I don't know if the Devils' camp would gain nearly as much interest from the public. I could be wrong, though; but I just think that while opening training camp to the public would be nice, it may not bring a significant benefit.